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The CHAIRMAN. How many of them are there? Mr. RICE. There are representatives from the N.R.A., and from the Agricultural Department. And Dr. Baker is present and he has to leave for Chicago today. And there are several others. There is somebody from the office of education, and from the central statistical board in the Committee on Government Statistics. Mr. KINZER. Well, if this bill is as important as we think it is, and these Department representatives are here, it seems to me that ample and complete opportunity should be given to them to be heard. If we have our hearings in the mornings, it seems to me that with a couple of hours a day we can hear them all. Just now, I think our duties in the House are very important, and we cannot meet in the afternoon. But we can take sufficient time in the mornings to be informed as to all the relevant and important facts as to this bill; because we have to justify this bill before the House, and we should have a pretty good understanding of it. I believe, Mr. Baker, that you are leaving for Chicago today? Mr. BAKER. I leave at 4 o’clock, Mr. Chairman. The CHAIRMAN. Can you finish in 10 minutes? Mr. BAKER. I can finish in 5 minutes. The CHAIRMAN. Then we will hear Mr. Baker, representing the Agricultural Adjustment Administration. Please give your name and official position, for the record.
STATEMENT OF O. E. BAKER, BUREAU OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
Mr. BAKER. My name is O. E. Baker, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, and member of the census committee of the Department of Agriculture.
Mr. Chairman and gentlemen: As you know, we in the Department of Agriculture are endeavoring to promote the adjustment of production to consumption.
Population is the major factor in determining the future need for farm products. That effort to adjust production to consumption is reflected immediately in the Agricultural Adjustment program. It is expected that it will be reflected more remotely in a long-time land use program which is now being developed.
The population of the nation deserves a weight of fully 90 percent, in my opinion, in estimating the future needs for farm products.
We first of all, therefore, estimate the number of people. Secondly, we take the age periods. You may not be aware of the fact that, based on the number of births as reported by the Bureau of the Census we have had a 9 percent decrease of children under the age of 5 years since the census was taken. And we have had an increase of 15 pero in the number of people over 65 years of age since the census was taken.
So, from a national standpoint, we are very much interested, because the children drink milk and the old people do not drink milk. And we have had a decrease in the last year or two of 5 percent in our milk consumption, which, in my opinion, is due in no small degree to the declining number of children.
And that decline is very rapid as things are going at present. There are not enough children born in the United States to maintain our present population permanently. We are also interested in the regional distribution, or in the determination of the land policy and in the carrying out of the land-use program, we must do it not only by regions, but we must do it by States; and the States, of course, will have to work out their plans and programs by counties. We, therefore, need very much to know what has happened as to the migration or movement of the population since the last census was taken. The only indications we have are the number of births and deaths that are taking place. I might say that in New York City, between 1928 and 1932, the number of deaths of people under 40 years of age dropped 25 percent, and the number of deaths of people over 40 years of age increased about 20 percent. I suggest that the old people all stayed in New York City; because there was about a 25 percent increase in the number of deaths of old people to be expected; they had no families or relatives to go to on the farms. But you know the old people live in the cities. The evidence is that they are not leaving there to die. So that, whether there are one half the people who die in New York City who are under 40, or whether they are mostly over 40, there is an indication, if I may make a very rough estimate, of a decline of 500,000 people between the years 1928 and 1932. And those are mostly young people. And that is true, probably, in many other cities. Now, we need very much to know about this subject of migration— Mr. FLETCHER (interposing). Where have these people gone? Mr. BAKER. Down to the farms. There has been an increase of 3,000,000 or 4,000,000 in farm population. Part of that is due to the excess of births over deaths. But we have now back on the farm 3,000,000 young people who would, under predetermination, have gone to the cities. And they are a very great problem. If that movement to the cities is not resumed, they may begin “bowl over” in our landuse program. Mr. FLETCHER. How will they “bowl over” in such a program? Mr. BAKER. Because the program is that we hope to get some of this very poor and rapidly eroding land out of use. If you have a population pressure of millions of young people wanting to start to make homes for themselves out in the country, they are going out on the poor lands. Mr. FLETCHER. How will this information help you? Mr. BAKER. This information will help us in finding what the situation is, and how many young people there are in each county more than there were in 1930. Mr. FLETCHER. Then what will you do about it? Mr. BAKER. The program is not fully developed yet. But my own inclination is, very much as Prof. Burgess has suggested, to help in the reorganization in each county and each community—help by doing what we can through local committees—to study their problems, study the direction of their school education and possibilities, and see what the possibilities are in that county, and what the chances are if they go to the city, and if they will be prepared to do it. And in addition to that, to get them off the poorly eroded lands where the situation for them would become worse rather than better, and get them on to the better lands. The three things, therefore, that we wish above all else are, to get the number of people by townships, which we will certainly have; the age, which we will also have; but the movement went forward in 1930 to a point where there was an advantage that I fear we may not have, but which we hope can be included in the program; that is, the migration. Mr. FLETCHER. You will have that information 2 years from now, however? Mr. BAKER. May I add one word? We feel it very important to have this population census associated with agriculture, because it assures a more complete agricultural census. The agricultural census before was taken independently, and the result was that when we got the 1930 census figures it was evident that the enumeration had not been as complete as when you had the population census, when you had to have everybody. For example, there would be cases where there would be a little mountain farm that they would not have. So we are very anxious to have the population census associated with the agricultural census. The CHAIRMAN. We will proceed tomorrow morning with the other witnesses. (Thereupon, at 12 noon, the committee adjourned until Wednesday, May 2, 1934, at 10 a.m.)
CENSUS OF UNEMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATIONS, AGRICULTURE, AND POPULATION
WEDNESDAY, MAY 2, 1934
Hous E OF REPRESENTATIVEs,
The committee met at 10 a.m., Hon. Ralph F. Lozier (chairman) presiding.
The CHAIRMAN. The committee will come to order.
With the approval of the committee, I offer a message from Frederick C. Mills, president of the American Statistical Association, which reads as follows:
As president of the American Statistical Association I respectfully urge your favorable consideration of proposal for census population this fall.
I also submit a statement by Miss Bess Goodykoontz, Assistant Commissioner, Office of Education, under date of April 30, 1934. (The statement referred to is as follows:)
STATEMENT MADE BY UNITED STATES OFFICE OF EDUCATION
The proposed census of employment, unemployment, and occupations with accompanying data on population would be of assistance to the Office of Education and to educational officials in a variety of ways. At present this office is cooperating with the F.E.R.A. in providing a program of unemployment relief for teachers and others employed in connection with school work. There have, been no reliable data concerning the extent of unemployment among teachers and other school employees. Such information as the proposed census would secure would be of considerable help in projecting a further school relief program. It would be of very practical assistance also to State school officials in planning revisions in certification laws and in entrance requirements to teacher-training institutions. It is possible that data on the shift of population would be useful in determining what school facilities, including buildings, equipment, and transportation, are necessary to meet the changing school demands. Data on employment by occupations would show increasing and receding industries by locations and would therefore indicate changes needed in vocational education programs. The age distribution in industries and occupations would snow the ages at which people secure and hold employment under different occupations and would therefore to some extent indicate how educational programs might be adjusted to meet the entrance age to these occupations. The proposed census would be of especial value to education in that it would reveal the size and distribution of a group of unemployed people for whom the public schools should assume responsibility. These persons would probably be from 16 to 20 years of age or more. The study would probably have implications for the kinds of programs that the schools should provide for this group and would be indicative as to the extent of day and evening courses necessary for meeting the needs of this group. In order to determine the number actually unemployed in each age group it is necessary to know the number who are attending school as well as those who are gainfully employed. We therefore recommend that a major occupation group entitled “attending school” be added to that occupational classification to be