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Nonliquid Liabilities Reported by U.S. Government to Other Official and Private Foreigners
(Line 55) (Cont'd)
U.S. Liquid Liabilities to Private Foreigners
U.S. Liquid Liabilities to Foreign Official Agencies (Line 57)
funds provided as grants or loans under assistance programs, but held in a restricted account with the U.S. Government under arrangements to insure their expenditure for purchases from the United States; accounts payable of Government agencies that report their current transactions on an accrual basis; noninterest-bearing Treasury securities which were issued as part of U.S. Government contributions to international institutions, but are subject to redemption prior to maturity to obtain U.S. dollars for the immediate operating needs of the institutions; and nonmarketable securities issued by the Government to other than foreign official reserve agencies through arrangements to improve the U.S. liquid liability position with other countries.
Transactions may be in U.S. dollars or in foreign currencies. Repayments of obligations are recorded at book value, with the exception that an estimated book value is calculated by BEA to reflect any formal exchange rate revaluation which may have affected the U.S. dollar equivalent value of an obligation denominated and/or repayable in foreign currencies. Data are compiled from reports furnished by operating agencies, and from published statements and financial and operating records of Government agencies. The entries for the several categories of transactions related to military sales contracts are partially estimated by BEA from incomplete data. This account measures changes in short-term liabilities (with an original maturity of one year or less) to private foreigners reported by U.S. banks, for their own account and for others' accounts under their custody, and changes in private foreign. holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable bonds and notes. Liquid liabilities reported by U.S. banks include mainly demand and time deposits, U.S. Treasury bills and certificates, negotiable time certificates of deposit, and nonguaranteed U.S. Government agency securities. Private foreigners include official international and regional organizations other than IMF even if located in the United States, foreign branches of U.S. banks, other foreign commercial banks, and other private foreign residents. These data are collected monthly by the Federal Reserve System for the Treasury Department from banks and securities brokers and dealers.
This account measures changes in short-term liabilities (with an original maturity of one year or less) to foreign official agencies reported by U.S. banks for their own account and for others' accounts under their custody, changes in foreign official agencies' holdings of U.S. Treasury marketable and nonmarketable convertible bonds and notes and changes in liabilities to the IMF arising from gold transactions. Shortterm liabilities reported by U.S. banks include mainly demand and time deposits, negotiable time certificates of deposit, nonguaranteed U.S. Government agency securities, and U.S. Treasury bills and certificates. Foreign official agencies include, in addition to reserve agencies (treasuries or finance ministries of central governments and recognized central banks), diplomatic and consular establishments, and other agencies of national governments. Separate data for reserve agencies are not available. The liability data are collected primarily by the Federal Reserve System for the Treasury Department on a monthly basis.
Transactions in U.S. Official Reserve Assets, Net-Gold
Gold Tranche Position in IMF (Line 62)
Allocations of Special Drawing Rights (SDR)
Errors and Omissions, Net (Line 64)
This account measures changes in the U.S. gold stock, including changes in gold in the Exchange Stabilization Fund. This account also includes gold sold to the United States by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with the right to repurchase, and gold deposited by the IMF to mitigate the impact on the U.S. gold stock of foreign purchases for the purpose of making gold subscriptions to the Fund under quota increases. The corresponding changes in liabilities to the IMF arising from the gold transactions are in line 57.
This account measures net changes in U.S. holdings of special drawing rights in the Special Drawing Account in the International Monetary Fund, reflecting allocations, acquisitions, and use.
This account measures changes in Treasury and Federal Reserve System holdings of convertible foreign currencies in U.S. dollar equivalents.
This account measures changes in the U.S. gold tranche position in the International Monetary Fund-the U.S. quota in the IMF minus the Fund's holdings of U.S. dollars-which is the amount that the United States could purchase in foreign currencies automatically if needed. Under appropriate conditions, the United States could purchase additional amounts equal to the U.S. quota.
This account measures the allocations of special drawing rights to the United States by the International Monetary Fund. The initial allocation occurred January 1, 1970; the second, January 1, 1971; and the third, January 1, 1972.
This entry is a residual item in table 2. The sum of this entry and all other accounts in table 2 equals zero. The residual item includes errors and omissions that may have occurred in any of the lines 1-63 due to such factors as statistical errors, reporting deficiencies, and differences in timing in the recording of the two sides (debit and credit) of a single transaction. It is entered to fulfill the principle of double-entry bookkeeping used in balance-of-payments accounting that credits and debits should exactly balance.
The Social and Economic Statistics Administration (SESA) is a major statistical and analytical agency of the Federal Government. The Bureau of the Census and the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), which comprise SESA, are responsible for the collection, compilation, analysis and publication of statistical data relating to the social and economic activities and characteristics of the population and business enterprises of the United States.
Most of the statistics are published in the form of press releases and special reports. Business Conditions Digest (BCD), a monthly publication of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, brings together many of the economic time series found most useful by business analysts and forecasters. Many SESA series are included, but a large number of the series are from other government or private sources.
BCD is divided into six principal sections:
A National Income and Product
C Anticipations and Intentions
E Analytical Measures
F International Comparisons The section devoted to the national accounts is based upon the statistical series described in Part I of this Dictionary.
The cyclical indicator portion of BCD is designed to facilitate analysis of the economy through 78 economic time series. This indicator approach was originally developed by the National Bureau of Economic Research as a tool for analyzing current economic conditions and prospects. The series are cross classified into six major economic processes and three cyclical timing categories. Economic process is employed as the principal basis of classification and cyclical timing as the secondary basis.
The timing classifications are based on the historical timing record of each series at business cycle peaks and troughs. The three timing classes are "leading," "roughly coincident," and "lagging." Leading Indicators
The "leading" indicators are a set of economic time series each of which usually reaches business cycle peaks and troughs ahead of general economic activity. As such, they provide significant clues to future shifts in the general direction of business activity.
Listed below are the 40 leading indicators classified by economic process. Series included in the NBER "short list" are indicated by an asterisk.
Employment and Unemployment
• Accession rate in manufacturing
Average weekly overtime hours, pro-
• Average workweek of production workers, manufacturing*
Layoff rate in manufacturing Fixed Capital Investment
• Construction contracts awarded for commercial and industrial buildings (floor space)
• Contracts and orders for plant and equipment*
• Index of construction contracts, value Index of net business formation* • Index of new private housing units authorized by local building permits*
• New private housing units started, total
• Newly approved capital appropriations, 1000 manufacturing corporations
• Number of new business incorporations
• Index of industrial materials prices* Index of stock prices, 500 common stocks*
• Net cash flow, corporate, current dollars
• Net cash flow, corporate, constant (1958) dollars
• Price per unit of labor cost index, manufacturing*
• Profits (after taxes) per dollar of sales, all manufacturing corporations
• Ratio of profits (after taxes) to income originating, corporate, all industries Money and Credit
. Current liabilities of business failures • Net change in bank loans to busi
• Net change in consumer installment debt*
• Net change in mortgage debt held by financial institutions and life insurance companies
Percent change in U.S. money supply • Percent change in U.S. money supply and commercial bank time deposits • Percent change in U.S. money supply plus time deposits at commercial banks and nonbank thrift institutions • Percent of consumer installment loans delinquent 30 days or more
• Total funds raised by private nonfinancial borrowers in credit markets
• Value of manufacturers' new orders, Roughly Coincident Indicators durable goods industries*
• Value of manufacturers' new orders, capital goods industries, nondefense Inventories and Inventory Investment
Buying policy-production materials, percent reporting commitments 60 days or longer
• Change in book value of manufacturers' inventories of materials and supplies
. Change in book value of manufacturing and trade inventories*
. Change in business inventories
• Change in manufacturers' unfilled orders, durable goods industries
• Percent reporting higher inventories, purchased materials
• Vendor performance, percent reporting slower deliveries
Prices, Costs and Profits
• Corporate profits after taxes, constant (1958) dollars
• Corporate profits after taxes, current dollars*
The "roughly coincident" indicators are a set of economic time series each of which usually experiences business cycle peaks and troughs about the same time as the general economic activity. These, therefore, provide an analytical basis for determining the dates when the overall economy reaches these peaks and troughs.
Listed below are the 26 roughly coincident indicators, also classified by economic process:
Employment and Unemployment
• Average weekly insured unemployment rate, State programs
Index of help-wanted advertising in newspapers
• Man-hours in nonagricultural establishments
• Number of employees on nonagricultural payrolls, establishment survey*
• Number of job vacancies, manufacturing
• Total number of persons engaged in