Gambar halaman
PDF
ePub

obtained.

The ratio of the urban estimate for the current quarter to the estimate for the preceding quarter was also computed. The estimate for the current quarter was then obtained from these two relationships and this quarterly estimate distributed among the months according to the urban estimate.

In 1946, BLS undertook a continuing field study of all residential construction in 90 representative areas. These studies made it possible to improve the basis for estimating the rural nonfarm component of the total estimate of nonfarm residential construction by providing more representative coverage of the nonpermit areas. The areas include 29 large industrial areas, 30 small urban areas, and 31 rural nonfarm areas. These combined areas encompass about 3,000 individual non-permit-issuing places and together represent 46 percent of the total nonfarm population.

The 90 area studies are used to produce factors reflecting the relationship between urban and rural nonfarm activity; the estimate of rural nonfarm starts is derived by applying this factor to the total urban estimate previously described.

Housing activity in the rural nonfarm portion of the 90 areas is measured by following up the building permits issued to determine actual start of construction in permit-issuing places and by field surveys in non-permit-issuing places. The surveys are carried on by field workers of the BLS who interview contractors, architects, assessors, lending institutions, building materials dealers and others to determine where and when dwelling units are placed under construction. The result is a comprehensive canvass of housing starts in the rural nonfarm part of the 90 representative areas. BLS National and Regional Estimates

Tables 1 through 4 present estimates of privately financed nonfarm dwelling units scheduled to be started in the country as a whole. These tables include all published BLS national estimates. Tables 5 through 9 present the BLS estimates of privately financed nonfarm residential construction scheduled to be started in the nine Bureau of the Census geographic divisions.2

2 Note that, in all tables showing data by type of structure, a one-family structure with store attached is counted as a two-family structure.

Table 11.-New privately financed nonfarm dwelling units started1 in 30 urban areas: By month, January 1946

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][subsumed][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][subsumed][subsumed][merged small][merged small][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][subsumed][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small]

1 Includes all privately financed new dwelling units; excludes trailers, dormitory units, barracks, and converted units. * Includes the entire county.

Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[ocr errors]

1,235

0

[ocr errors]

- 20

[ocr errors]
[ocr errors]

575

110

105

135

345

[ocr errors]
[ocr errors]

- 20

50

[ocr errors]
[ocr errors]
[blocks in formation]

Chapter II

Dollar Volume of Residential Construction

This chapter concerns itself chiefly with new privately financed residential construction. Its purpose is to present the various sets of data which measure the volume of such construction in monetary terms.

The official Government source of such statistics is the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As is the case with its data on the number of privately financed dwelling units started, BLS compiles its dollar volume estimates from reports of building permits issued and supplementary field studies. The reader is referred to chapter I for the details of the basic field procedure, since the same general considerations apply here.

Because no single series will suffice for presentday analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics prepares three distinct bodies of data relating to residential dollar volume. The first reflects, for each month, the aggregate value of permits issued during the month. The second adjusts these data upward to account for the understatement, of costs which characterizes building permit figures; this body of data therefore attempts to show for each month, the aggregate cost that will be incurred for all the dwelling units started during the month. Finally, the third series estimates, for each month, the value of work put in place for all work under construction, regardless of when it was started. Each series is discussed below.

The first two series, it will be seen, are advance indicators of coming construction expenditures, while the third reflects construction at the time it occurs. Used in conjunction with figures on the number of units started, the first two series provide ratios reflecting average permit value and average total cost per unit. The put-in-place series is correlative with on-site employment and consumption of building materials.

The F. W. Dodge Corp. likewise compiles a series on the dollar volume of residential construction contracts awarded in the 37 States east of the Rocky Mountains. This series is discussed in more detail later in this chapter.

BLS Series on Value of Building Permits Issued

Tables 12 and 13 present data on the value of building permits issued, the figures reflecting the builder's statement of expected construction costs as shown on the building permit.

The bureau has developed a continuous series for a fixed group of 257 cities which have reported data since 1921. Permit valuations obtained from permits issued in these cities are shown, by year, from 1921 through 1945 in table 12. Although this series includes cities in all parts of the country, the heaviest representation is from the Northeastern and Midwestern States. Obviously, since this is not a representative sample, the use of these data is limited.

[blocks in formation]

Table 13 presents estimated permit-valuation data for the entire nonfarm area of the country by quarter, 1940 through 1946. This series is based on building-permit information obtained from a majority of urban and rural nonfarm areas where such permits are required. The data were then expanded to account for areas which require permits but which do not report to BLS, and for

areas where permits are not required.1

The data on "average valuation" shown in this table were derived by dividing the total valuation by the estimated number of private dwelling units started each quarter.

1 For a detailed explanation of BLS estimating technique see ch. I; a discussion of the limitations of the average valuation data is to be found in ch. IV, Part 1.

Table 13.—Local building permit valuation: Total and average estimated valuation1 of new nonfarm private dwelling units started, for the United States as a whole, by type of structure, by quarter, 1940-46

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small]

1 These data represent permit valuation rather than construction cost. Data for 1945 and 1946 not adjusted for lapsed building permits and for lag between issuance of permit and actual start of construction. These factors were not particularly significant prior to 1945.

Source: U. S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Total Construction Cost of Units Started

The' data in table 14 represent estimated total construction cost of all privately financed new dwelling units started in the nonfarm areas of the United States.

Since no single series is available for the period 1920-46, it was necessary to develop a time series from two different sources: For the period 1920-29,

the data are estimates of the National Bureau of Economic Research; the data for the period 1930 to date are estimates of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The two series were joined in the period 1928-31 and there is thus a slight disparity in the data for these years.

The information presented in table 14 goes a step further than the series on building-permit valuation shown in the two preceding tables.

The valuation data are adjusted to reflect a characteristic understatement of cost which BLS found in the building-permit data. This understatement, for the country as a whole, has generally amounted to about 15 percent; in very recent years it has been as high as 25 percent. Thus, in the series on construction cost of dwelling units started, allowances have been made for construction overhead and, in the case of contract builders, for builders' profits. In addition, the data for 1945 and 1946 are adjusted to reflect permits issued but not used.

Table 14.-Construction cost of new nonfarm dwelling units started: By type of financing, by year, 1920-46; by month, January 1945-December 1946

[In millions of dollars]

[blocks in formation]
[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][subsumed][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][subsumed][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small]
« SebelumnyaLanjutkan »