106 bbl/d

World oil production

!

THE CONCENTRATED EFFORT OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ALTERNATIVE FUELS HAS BEEN DEMANDED BY THE LIMITED TIME BEFORE THE COM-
MERCIAL PRODUCTION AND USE OF SYNTHETIC FUELS WILL BE REQUIRED. FIGURE 5.11
ILLUSTRATES PROJECTED NEED FOR DESIGN OF ALTERNATE FUELS IN RELATION TO
WORLD OIL PRODUCTION. THE PROJECTED AMOUNT OF TIME NEEDED FOR READY
AVAILABILITY OF SYNTHETIC FUELS COINCIDES WITH PROJECTED PEAK OIL
PRODUCTION.

Source:

Projected Need for Commercial Production and Use of Synthetic
Fuels as a Function of World Oil Production.

Department of Energy, Assistant Secretary for Conservation and
Solar Applications, Transportation Energy Conservation
Division, Program Planning Document Highway Vehicle Alternative
Fuels Utilization Program (AFUP), Alternative Fuels Utilization
Program, Washington, D.C., April 1978, pp. 1-8.

10

CASH INVESTMENT PROJECTIONS, OPEC PAYMENTS, BILLION $

THE FIGURE BELOW, THOUGH PARTLY CONJECTURAL, ILLUSTRATES THE TECHNOLOGICAL-
DEVELOPMENT AND FUELS-DEVELOPMENT CYCLES IN RELATIONSHIP TO THE PROJECTED
TIME FRAME FOR SIGNIFICANT RELIANCE ON SYNTHETIC, NONPETROLEUM-BASED FUELS.
WHILE COAL- AND OIL-SHALE-BASED SYNTHETIC FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
SIGNIFICANTLY TO FUTURE TRANSPORTATION ENERGY SUPPLIES, THE QUESTIONS OF
THE TIME AND EXTENT OF THIS CONTRIBUTION IN TERMS OF MEETING AUTOMOTIVE
AND TRUCK DEMAND REMAIN UNANSWERED. THE DEVELOPMENT OF ALTERNATE FUELS
AND ENGINE- AND FUEL-SYSTEMS ARE THEREFORE CONCERNS OF VERY HIGH PRIORITY
IN ENERGY PLANNING. THE PROPOSED TIME FRAME FOR ACCOMPLISHMENT OF THESE
OBJECTIVES IS 1990-2000,

Note 1:

Note 2:

Note 3:

If coal and oil shale systems can be brought on line on sufficient scale to provide a more than adequate supply of transportation fuels, and if these fuels are in forms similar to present day gasoline and diesel fuels, no significant technology development or deployment would be required in the trucking/automotive industry. This is the future preferred by the original equipment manufacturers and users. This future scenario is not assured.

SRI projected fuels industry investment, at 5% inflation rate, required to sustain the conventional fuels industry and develop the synthetic fuels from coal and oil shale industry.

SRI projected fuels industry investment, at 5% inflation rate, required to sustain the conventional fuels industry.

Fig. 5.13

A Concept of the Long-Term Energy Future of Transportation
Fuel Demands, Needs, and Technological Development.

Source: University of Miami and Escher Technology Associates, for
Department of Energy, Transportation Energy Conservation
Division, Alternative Fuels and Intercity Trucking, Alternative
Fuels Utilization Program, Washington, D.C., June 1978,
Fig. 10-1, p. 296.

Table 5.12

Liquid Fuel Conversion Efficiencies, Costs and Potential Availability, 1976-2000

NA - Not available.

Source:

Department of Energy, Office of the Under Secretary, Task Force on Fuels, Alcohol Fuels Frogram Plun, Alcohol Fuels Program, Washington, D.C.,
March 1978, Table 3-1, A-1, p. 3-3, A-3.

COAL RESOURCES IN THE UNITED STATES ARE EXTENSIVE, HOWEVER DEPOSITS VARY GREATLY WITH RESPECT TO CHEMICAL COMPOSITION AND COSTS OF EXTRACTION AND TRANSPORT. WHILE SYNTHETIC FUELS FROM COAL HAVE BEEN IDENTIFIED AS FEASIBLE ALTERNATIVE TRANSPORTATION FUELS, THE ABOVE FACTORS MAY AFFECT THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THEIR PENETRATION INTO THE TRANSPORTATION SECTOR.

Source:

Southwest Research Institute, for Department of Energy,
Transportation Energy Conservation Division, Identification
of Probable Automotive Fuels Composition: 1985-2000, Alternate
Fuels Utilization Program, Washington, D.C., May 1978, Table 1.2,
p. 195.