which separates the vortex from the island of Luzón decreases. If this distance is more than 700 miles its influence is scarcely felt in Manila, except for the greater constancy of those winds which blow from the WSW. and SW. These blow even outside of the regular hours for breezes, as happened in the baguío of the 6th to 9th of September, 1897, and that which damaged Kobé the 15th of August, 1900. 4. Those which form in the China sea to the west of the archipelago: These baguíos are those which are felt least in Manila. As a general rule they follow from the point of their formation toward the fourth quadrant, and most commonly toward the NW. or WNW. For this reason they are soon far from the archipelago, and so influence Manila only by means of their showers and mild or brisk breezes from the S. to the SE. Although not frequent, baguíos are occasionally registered which, forming in the China sea, move to the N, and NE., passing thus to the north of Manila. When this happens their influence is prolonged for some days, the winds veering from SE. to S. and SW. as the vortex advances toward the NE. 5. Those which recurve in the China sea between the parallels 10° and 20°, passing first to the south and afterwards to the north of Manila: The influence of these baguíos, especially if they do not go far into the China sea before recurving, is usually prolonged for six or eight or more days, being accompanied at first with nearly continuous rains and brisk winds, which veer from N. to NE., E. and ESE., while the vortex crosses to the south and passes into the China sea. During this recurve the velocity of the storm usually diminishes notably, rains and brisk breezes continuing at Manila. These breezes from the ESE. veer to the SE. and SSE. very slowly. When, at the end of three, four, or five days, the baguío has completed this recurve, it quickly continues its course to the NNE., NE., or ENE. This change in position of the vortex, if the baguío is not too distant from Manila, is accompanied here by a rapid veering of the winds from the SSE. to the SSW., SW., WSW., and W., these increasing in force until the baguío has a second time crossed the meridian of Manila to the north. To this class belonged the "Gravina" baguío (so called because of the wreck of this merchant vessel near the coast of Zambales) of the 8th to the 17th of May, 1895, and the baguío of Iloilo and Vigan of the 6th to 20th of May, 1896. The vortex of this baguío passed Iloilo during the first part of its parabolic path and touched Vigan, when, after recurving, it crossed the NW. extremity of Luzón, moving to the NE. The paths of these two baguíos and others similar to them can be seen on Plate XXIV. Knowing thus in general the influence which a baguío may have on Manila, according as it belongs to one or the other of these five groups, it is easy to see that it will be useful to know the months in which the baguíos of these different groups occur. prepared the following table: For this purpose we have TABLE 47.-Monthly distribution of baguios for the period 1880 to 1898, according to the position of their paths with respect to Manila. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May. June. July. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total. Per cent. It appears that those baguíos which cross to the north of Manila and those which remain in the Pacific, east of the meridian 121° east of Greenwich, are most frequent. Those which cross to the south of Manila are less frequent, while those formed west of the meridian 121° east of Greenwich are still less frequent. Those baguíos which recurve in the China sea between the parallels 10° and 20°, crossing first to the south and then to the north of Manila, occur, as will be seen in the table, but rarely. In regard to the monthly distribution of the baguíos of these five groups it is evident, first, that those which cross to the north of Manila are more frequent in the months of September, July, August, and October, though they occur sometimes in the months of November, May, and June, but never during the rest of the year; second, that those which cross to the south are most common in November, October, May, and December, and are rarely seen in April, June, July, August, September, and January; third, that those which recurve into the Pacific to the east of meridian 121° east of Greenwich are very frequent in September, quite frequent in August and July, less so in June, October, and November, and rare in the other months; fourth, that those formed in the China sea to the west of meridian 121° east of Greenwich are fairly frequent from June to October, inclusive, in descending grade through June, July, and August, and ascending from August to October, the maximum being in the months of June and July, this being the so-called typhoon period. Very few have observed them in May, November, and April, and none in the other months; fifth, that of the last group of baguíos but nine have been registered in the period under discussion-one in March, one in June, one in December, two in November, and four in Maythey being peculiar, therefore, to this last month. Thus, in the year 1899 we observed a baguío of this group from the 18th to the 28th 26162-VOL 1-05-11 of May which first crossed the Visayan Islands, being severely felt in Iloilo and Cebú on the 20th and 21st. It then recurved into the China sea to the south of Hongkong, between the parallels 17° and 20°, and was lost in the Pacific ocean to the north of Formosa. Its path may be seen on Plate XXIV. The baguíos may be classified in the following form: Cyclones formed (Cyclones of the Marianas or (Those which recurve far from the meridian of Manila. Cyclones of Ja-Those which recurve near the meridian of Manila before or after cross pan. Cyclones of For ing it. mosa. Cyclones formed in the Cyclones formed in the Cyclones of the Visayas and Mindanao. Cyclones which recurve in the China sea between the 10th and 20th parallels north latitude, crossing first to the south and then to the north of Manila. This classification includes all the cyclones of the extreme East, but it is made principally with reference to Manila, or to the influence exerted on Manila according to the zone of formation and the course of the trajectories. Of the baguíos here specified, 81 per cent belong to the first main branch of this division, 15 per cent to the second, and only 4 per cent to the third. Of the typhoons of the Visayas and Mindanao, those formed in the China sea and those formed in the sea south of Luzón, some disappear in the China sea before reaching the continent, while others, greater in number, penetrate the continent in the south of China, in Tonkin, or in Cochin China. Those formed in the China sea very seldom go in the direction of Formosa or Japan. But this is not true of those of the Visayas and Mindanao, which in this case belong to the last of the three groups of baguíos, which we have called Philippine baguíos because they cross these islands. Of the baguíos formed in the Pacific, the cyclones called those of the Marianas or Magallanes disappear in the Pacific without reaching our archipelago or recurve in such a manner that the second part of their parabolic trajectory does not carry them to Japan nor near it, but rather in the direction of the archipelago of Magallanes; Japanese typhoons include not only those which actually traverse Japan, but also those which, after recurving, pass through the seas of Japan or in the vicinity of that Empire; cyclones of Formosa, Luzón, the Visayas, and Mindanao are all such as traverse said islands, or at least cross |