It has been faid, that the knowledge in their profeffion, which the Ruffian failors could acquire, by their fhort fummer navigations in the gulphs of Finland and Bothnia, was not to be fuppofed equal to the dangers which they muft encounter, in unknown and boisterous feas. The condition in which both ships and men arrived in England, the length of time they took in making their voyage, and the accidents they met with, notwithftanding the affiftance of fome English officers and pilots, feemed Atrongly to countenance this opinion. It was also faid, that the fea of the Archipelago, fo famous for its numberlefs iflands, fhoals, and currents, as well as for its fudden, fhifting, and violent winds, feemed to be an ill chofen and perilous fchool of probation.

The attempt, however, is great, bold, and manly; and it should be obferved, that neither great defigns are to be defined, nor great fucceffes to be obtained by the precife rules of vulgar calculation.

Nor is this to be regarded as a matter totally novel, and which only fprung up from the prefent contingency. A defign of a fimilar nature, or which at least led to the fame end, has been for many years in contemplation, and a favourite object at the court of Peterfburg. Indeed it is not to be imagined, that Peter the Great and his fucceffors, would have built fuch a number of vaft fhips, only to have them dragged about once a year between the rocks and fhoals of the Baltic.

It is now known, that the great point which Ruffia had in view, in the war of the year 1736, against the Tarks, was to gain a port and

free right of trade upon the Black Sea, with liberty for her fhips to pafs through the Dardanelles, in their way to and from the Archipelago and Mediterranean. The great fuccefs of the Turks against the late emperor, (who was then the Ruffian ally), and the difhonourable peace which they forced him into, fruftrated the scheme for that time; but there can be no reafon to doubt that it had its full effect in producing the prefent war. How far its fuccefs, and the eftablishment of a new naval power in thofe feas, may be confiftent with the intereft of the other European ftates, it is not our business here to difcufs: however, it may be eafly feen, that if it took place in its fullest extent, Ruffia muft become one of the greatest maritime powers in the world.

A long war is not however at prefent defirable to Ruffia. Thofe who are acquainted with the state of population in that vaft empire know, that the want of inhabitants, is its great and principal want. If we may credit fome late French writers, the race of man is in danger of becoming extinct in its northern provinces, from internal, and perhaps irremediable caufes, The lofs of men which, notwithstanding its fuccefs, it has already fuffered in the field during the progrefs of this fhort war, must have been very great. We know that the two great generals, Lacy and Munich, loft above half their armies in two fucceffive fummer campaigns against the Tartars only, though they had no enemy that could engage them in the field; and that war coft Ruffia confider ably more than 100,000 men. The lofs fuftained this year by thẻ ra

[B 2]

vages

vages of the Tartars, may probably equal if not exceed that in the field; befides their ruining the infant colony of New Servia, and fpoiling the noble province of the Ukraine; a province by much the finest and most fertile that Ruffia is poffeft of, the cultivation of which has always been regarded as an object of the greatelt importance.

These are loffes that touch Ruffia in the most fenfible and tender part. It may also be observed, that though this empire, from the cheapnefs of provifions, and the eafy method of providing for the troops, can fupport an infinite number of them at home; yet that the state of its finances is but ill adapted to the vaft expences which attend the employment of fleets and armies at a great diftance. For thefe and many other reasons, particularly the jealousy of the other European powers, it is not probable that Ruffia will be too implacable in its profecution of the war, nor that it will refuse advantageous, though at the fame time equitable terms of peace, when they are propofed.

The affairs of the Turkish empire, are at present in a very critical fituation. Founded by the fword, and established totally upon military principles, nothing lefs than a continued exercise in war, and the confequent obfervance of a fevere difcipline, could preferve it in its original vigour. The late long reft of thirty years, was not only contrary to the genius and temper of the people, but fubverfive of the conftitution; the laws and maxims of which are repugnant to peace and the arts that depend on it. As fyftem and theory

have alfo found but little admittance in the Turkish military inftitutions, the power of habit, and that knowledge acquired by actual experience, could alone fupport the force and goodness of their armies'; being in this refpect much inferior to their European neighbours; who having brought the art of war into a regular fyftem, keep large bodies of troops in the conftant exercife of that discipline to which they are fubject in the field.

alfo be

To this long peace may attributed that difpofition to revolt which feems at prefent fo prevalent among the Greeks. The terror with which they first regarded their fierce and haughty conquerors, was kept up by seeing them continually in arms, and by being witneffes that the fame courage which firft made them irrefiftible, ftill made them terrible to their moft warlike neighbours. These ideas being worn off, by a long knowledge and acquaintance in the foftnefs and weakness of peace; they now dare to reflect upon the wretchedness of their own condition, and to repine at the oppreffions which they fuffer.

This mal-content temper of the Grecian Chriftians, and the ftrong attachment which from religious and political principles they bear to the Ruffians, are circumftances much more alarming to the Ottoman empire, than any confequences that could refult from the ill conduct of the laft campaign, or the military prowess of their enemies. The Greeks are not only numerous, but most of the provincials are fierce and warlike; fo that the Turks are indebted to the bigotry and oppreffive difpofition, which fo uniformly difgraced the

councils,

councils, both of the house of Auftria and the republic of Venice, for most of their European provinces. The people, from this caufe, generally preferred a fubmiflion to the Mahometan government, (which was favourable enough to them in religious matters, and perhaps not more oppreffive in civil) than to the intolerant principles of their Chriftian neighbours. Now that Ruffia is arrived at great power and dignity, thefe people look up to her, not only as the preferver of their religion, but as their natural protector, and the restorer of the Greek empire.

Notwithstanding thefe appearances, the Porte is not yet wholly deftitute of refources both in money and men; nor did the Turkish foldiers feem to want their ancient valour in the laft campaign, till the continued ill conduct of their commanders, put an end at once both to hope and to courage. The enemy are alfo obliged to carry on the operations of war, at a vaft distance from the fource which fupplies it. To fupport a great army in fuch a fituation, to guard the convoys, and preferve the neceffary communications, must be attended with almoft infuperable difficulties. Thefe will still be increafed in a manifold degree, if the Ruffians attempt to extend the war to the Bulgarian fide of the Danube. Without confidering the doubtful chances of war, and the uncertainty of continuing at all times mafters in the field; or without taking into account the favage face of that province, every where interfected by the great branches of mount Hemus, and forming a natural check upon the operations

of great or regular armies; the dangers of advancing into an hof tile country, with fuch a river as the Danube, and fuch an enemy as th Tartars in the rear, are fo obvious as not to require any illuftration.

Thofe who had talked of the Ruffian's penetrating speedily and eafily to Conftantinople, feem, along with numberless other difficulties, to have 'overlooked the fituation of Romania, which is fenced by nature with fuch boundaries, as make it nearly impregnable on the land fide. So great an operation would require their being first mafters of the Black Sea; nor is it to be supposed that the other European powers would behold with a total indifference, fo great an acceffion of power, to a ftate which they already regard as too formidable.

Such feems to be the fituation and mutual difficulties of the two great contending powers. In number of troops, in difcipline, in marine, even in pecuniary refources, Ruffia feems much fuperior. The Turks derive their advantages from the difficult nature of their pontic country; from the jealoufy of other European states; and from the unfettled ftate of the throne in Ruffia.

The unhappy country of Poland' continues a victim to all the calamities that attend a weak government, and the nearness of too potent neighbours. Plundered alike by friends and foes, without a hope of advantage from the fuccefs of either, her beft blood flows in torrents, fhed by unavailing efforts which are only expreffive of her defpair. The cruel manners of the contending nations, add to the hor(B 31

rors

rors of her fituation, which are heightened by national animofity, and the mortal hatred that recipro cal injuries have excited between the Ruffians and Poles.'

It is the intereft of all the potent ftates, that furround this large and once great country, never to fuffer it to emerge out of its prefent wretched fituation. The officious neighbours have too great a regard for its conftitution, to admit the natural phyficians to prescribe any thing for its benefit. Its original misfortune was the pride and tyranny of the nobles, which prevented them for feveral ages, while it was in their power, from establishing a happy form of government. If this had been done, they might have been one of the greatest nations in Europe; they are now the moft miferable, and little less than a miracle can ever afford another opportunity of making trial

of their virtue.

The fuccefs of the Ruffians againft the Turks, and the apparent in difference of the other neighbour. ing powers, muft cut off every fhadow of hope from the confederates. By this means it is probable that the people may enjoy fome quiet, if not fecurity. What would be deemed the greateft misfortune to all other nations, feems to be the greatest happiness that could befal this; to become a province to fome neigbouring power, would at prefent be a bleifing indeed. This, in the natural courfe of things, muft ooner or later happen; and though it thould be to the most defpotic of them, which probably will be the cafe, ftill it would be a happy exchange. The Ruffians now appoint a king of oland as they do a duke of Cour

land, and have juft as much right to do one as the other. Can the wretched name of king, the empty title of republic, or the ridiculous pageantry of a court, be thought equivalent to the calamities to which the miserable Poles are every day fubject?

The emperor of Germany, tho' deeply interested in its confequences, has not interfered in the war. His conduct however feems myfterious. His armies are large, complete, and ready for action; camps are frequenly formed in Bohemia and Hungary; the magazines are kept ftored, and great bodies of troops lie upon the frontiers. The prefent fituation of the war, being upon the Danube, brings it home to the Austrian dominions. Many occafions will neceffarily follow of communication and interference, and opportunities must be given of fhewing favour or diflike. A powerful neighbour, fupported by great military force, and not afraid of either of the warring par ties, is almost as troublesome to them, when his territories lie intermingled with those in contention, as they are ruinous and defructive to a weak and defencelefs ftate in the fame fituation. Chance, heat, or danger, neceffas rily occafion a violation of territory, and irregular troops will commit exceffes in the most friendly country; all which produce altercations, and often fomething worse.

Nothing could be more oppofite to the intereft of the house of Auftria, nor perhaps fo dangerous to its fecurity, as that Ruffia fhould extend its power on the fide of Turky. Its obtaining any footing near the Danube, would be a cir

cum

cumftance of the moft alarming nature. It is not then to be fuppofed, that an active youthful prince, at the head of great armies, and poffeffed of great refources, would look tamely on, at fo dangerous and unwelcome an intrufion. It is rather to be imagined, that, prepared as he is for all confequences, he views attentively the courfe of the war, and waits till the temper of the hoftile powers will admit of his effectually employing his mediation for a

peace.

The king of Pruffia obferves the fame referve in this respect, that the emperor has done. He is alfo armed, and equally guarded against all events. It is poffible, that as these princes feem now to be upon a very friendly footing, this object may appear to them both in the fame point of view. This would certainly be their intereft; however their connections, their alliances, and their mutual jealoufies, may prevent it.

The king has however upon all occafions condemned the conduct of the Polish confederates, and feverely reprehended, and fometimes chaftized, fome parties of them that made accidental incurfions upon his territories. In other refpects this prince pays his ufual attention to the good of his fubjects, and to the increasing of the commerce in his dominions; and among other regulations for the eafe and conveniency of the merchants, has established a bank and lombard at Embden, and a particular bank at Berlin, befides the general one already there.

The king of Denmark proceeds in the fame good difpofitions to his people, and the fame patriotic

intentions, that we have before had fo much pleasure in taking notice of. The time he spent in his tour to other countries, he fhews was wifely laid out for the good of his own. He is now accordingly copying in his own dominions, those inftitutions whofe utility more immediately ftruck him when he was abroad. Among other inftances of this nature he has eftablished a Royal Society of Agriculture, and to honour and encourage it has declared himself its protector. This fociety, which includes arts as well as agriculture, the king has endowed with a confiderable fum, which is to be disposed of in prizes, for the encouragement of experiments in agriculture, and of ingenious artificers. His majefty being alfo ftruck at the fight of the royal foundation at Chelfea, he has given direction for the building an hofpital, for the reception of fuperannuated foldiers; and adds to this munificence, by forming an ellablishment for foldiers widows and children. The fame humanity has induced him to order two hofpitals, one at Copenhagen, and the other at Bergen, to be founded for the reception of difabled fea