Statement of Exports of principal products from India for the

To the minds of many persons, it is quite clear that the people of England must consent to abandon the cotton trade, or again turn their eyes westward for supplies. An argument has recently been brought forward, however, that Great Britain might be better off without the industrial pursuits of Lancashire and other districts having similar occupations, or, at least, that their advantage to the country has been greatly exaggerated; and this theory its advocates attempt to substantiate by referring to the large Governmental returns' since the trade became diminished. They omit to take into consideration that the people of this country held three years' supply of American cotton, and goods and yarns made therefrom, at home and abroad, which had been laid in' at a rate of under sevenpence per pound, and that for the last two years that accumulation has been dealt out' to meet the demand at unprecedented profits: thus constituting an equivalent to a most gigantic monopoly. It will be remembered that in April, May, and June, 1861, many of the exporters of Manchester goods were compelled to suspend payment by reason of their inability to dispose of their shipments except at ruinous sacrifices, while others were on the verge of bankruptcy; the time' granted by the creditors of the houses that had failed gave them an opportunity to take advantage of the rise in prices, and they sold out at handsome profits. They thereby were not only able.

to resume payment, but found themselves in possession of a large surplus; whereas, had the Southern crop of 18613,500,000 bales-been let loose, such a further reduction in the value of their merchandise would have ensued as to have caused their hopeless downfall, and a universal distress, of a different character from that which is existing, would have prevailed in all the manufacturing districts, sensibly affecting the whole commercial and financial interests of the kingdom. John Bull has, in fact, the past twenty-four months, been receiving extra large earnings from his manufacturing horse, fed upon the old supply of provender; but the animal cannot continue to work much longer for his master unless a new feed-bill be contracted. The millions of pounds sterling that have been expended in England and Scotland for war supplies, and which cannot be considered a permanent trade, have also assisted in augmenting the 'returns.' Freer trade with France has, likewise, added to the general favourable result.

This statement of the quantity of cotton in the South has been made up from the most reliable sources of information; and, although the figures presented are smaller than any hitherto published, it in no manner diminishes the resources of the Confederate States-on the contrary, it augments their wealth, as 2,300,000 bales will, at the larger price and lesser expenditure, net more money to the planters than would the proceeds of double that quantity, the more particularly so now, from the reason that, when the Southern crops do come forward, they will, for the first time in the history of the trade, meet a demand for manufactured goods which must necessarily be for very many months far in advance of the supply of the raw material. It will take three or four years of large crops before the quotations can again resume anything like their former level. Besides the great and healthy demand for goods and yarns that must certainly spring up after a restoration of peace, the warehouses will again begin to call for their accustomed stocks. The capital withdrawn from the cotton trade since the beginning of the war, and the profits earned by the rise in prices, have been the means of founding many joint-stock banks and financial associations; and as these funds are not intended to remain in the vaults of those institutions, they will eventually

pass through the 'new sieves' only to reach their old and natural channels. In short, the capital released from the cotton trade in consequence of the American war, with the profits on the stocks of the raw material, goods, and yarns on hand at the commencement of hostilities, added to the beneficial action of freer trade with France, and the American demand for war supplies, have kept the British money market 'easy' during the last two years, notwithstanding thirty millions sterling has been paid for grain within that time, beyond the usual cost to the country for food, to say nothing of the large amount of foreign loans placed in Lombard Street.

The whole cotton question, after all, depends upon the production of the American States. That grown in India, China, Brazil, Turkey, Egypt, &c., it is hardly worth while to consider, for each and all of those countries import more cotton in the shape of goods and yarns than they export of the raw material, thereby showing that they do not raise enough for their own wants. The crops of America have more than compensated for their deficiencies, and enabled their peoples to apply themselves to other pursuits. If the trade was in its usual state of vigour, there would be in the hands of all classes between the planter and consumer throughout the globe, on the 1st of September, 1863, two years' supply of cotton and cotton goods-equivalent to 6,000,000 bales-besides the crop for another year's demand -3,000,000 bales-in readiness to come forward, making a total of 9,000,000 bales of American cotton. The reader can easily estimate how small a proportion of that quantity will be in existence at that date, and make his calculations accordingly.

Allusion has already been made to the fact, that cotton shipments from India had increased somewhat in consequence of the high prices ruling in Europe. It may be remarked that the extra quantity does not more than balance the portions of the excessive productions of America in 1858, 1859, and 1860, which had reached that country in the manufactured state, as it will be remembered that British exports had been continued on a moderate scale to India, in anticipation of a rise in quotations, and in order to avoid sales at home--the value of goods not responding at once to that of the raw material. Even in

1862, the shipments thither in weight of goods and yarns, allowing for waste in the manufacture, were equivalent to the importations thence of cotton in 1859, and not far short of those of 1860. Of course, high prices in England will induce exports of cotton from India, and lessen the stocks there until they are reduced to a minimum point, which result may not be far distant. It must not be forgotten that India, unlike the Southern Confederacy, is a manufacturing country as well as a producing country, and consequently has always been in the habit of keeping stocks on hand, while the South has had no occasion to do so, but has ever parted with her entire crops as rapidly as they could be carried to market.

Some very exaggerated ideas exist in reference to the extent of cotton grown in India. In a letter from Manchester published in The Times' on July 7, 1862, will be found the following remarks: Your correspondent "an old Indian" endorses my statement that India annually produces 6,000,000 bales of cotton, and quotes Dr. J. Forbes Watson as his authority, than whom no one is more competent to form an opinion; and yet in the face of this the merchants of Bombay state that they will not be able to furnish us with a quantity equal to what they sent us last year, viz. 986,290 bales. What, then, becomes of the other 5,000,000 bales?' The answer is that the vast population of India requires the remainder, whatever it may be, for clothing purposes, notwithstanding their large importation of British manufactures. It is not possible, however, that over onethird the quantity named is grown in India, as will be seen by the subjoined estimate of the entire consumption of the world. Cotton is not cultivated for amusement in India, or anywhere else, but for use; and the erroneous statements in reference thereto have, no doubt, been caused by the recent augmented exports, the high prices attracting the old stocks from the interior. Few persons take into consideration that India is frequently very short of food, and never has a surplus. In 1840, about half a million of her inhabitants perished from starvation and its attendant diseases; the same was the case in 1861, and nearly every year there is a partial famine. India, unlike America, has no wide extent of fertile country with great rivers, affording a natural means of conveying the produce to the consuming

points. The truth is that the vast emigration from Europe to the American States has been the cause, indirectly, of the extraordinary increase in their cotton crops, the agricultural labour of the West having thus supplied the East, thereby releasing a certain portion of the plantation labour of the South for the production of cotton, which would otherwise have been engaged in raising food. This is strikingly manifested by the enormous cotton yield of 1859: in that year, the low prices for grain in the North-west induced the people of the South to purchase largely from that section of country. Indeed, while some of the Southern States were exporting their grain and provisions to the North, others were receiving supplies from the West. The foodresources of the South, notwithstanding the smaller population, are, however, greater than those of the North and West combined.t

Since this was written, a pamphlet has appeared from Mr. Samuel Smith, a Liverpool gentleman, who has just returned from India, on page 12 of which will be found the subjoined remarks :—

'Cotton in most parts of India is cultivated in rotation with other crops, and is seldom looked upon as the mainstay of the ryot, but only as a subordinate product. The great staple of cultivation everywhere is breadstuffs in some shape or another. The holdings of the ryots are extremely small, and it has been the custom from time immemorial for each individual to raise sufficient food for his own family. In addition to this, he may grow a little plot of cotton yielding on the average one or two bales. But the ryot will not neglect the raising of food for the sake of cotton, however high its price may be. No surplus stocks of grain are available to meet an emergency of this kind; the internal commerce of India is still in the crudest possible shape; no such thing exists as large districts devoted to special branches of agriculture, and drawing their supplies of food from others: the rule, speaking generally, all over India is for each locality to raise its own supplies of food, and for each separate cultivator to do the same for himself. So true is this that, if the grain crops fail in any one region, a famine ensues, and people perish by thousands, even though the rest of India is unaffected. During the famine in the North-west provinces two years ago, half a million of people are said to have died from starvation, while in most of India the crops were not deficient; but so wretched were the means of internal communication, and so little was the trade in breadstuffs organised, that supplies could not be thrown into the famished districts in time to avert this awful calamity. It is not, then, to be wondered that the natives are reluctant to diminish their food crops in order to turn their land into cotton.' † See article on Wheat trade, p. 133.