population of 1899 as reported by the present census. On these assumptions the population of Cuba each year from 1890 to 1899 was as follows: From these population estimates the birth rate of Cuba may be computed, and the results are shown in the following table: No confidence can be placed in the accuracy of these figures, and the only thing of significance in the table is the very marked decrease of the birth rate from a maximum at the beginning of the period to a minimum near the end. A slight clue to the birth rate in Cuba in 1860 may be derived from the Spanish census of 1861. That enumerated 38,096 persons under 1 year of age (p. 711). These were survivors of such as had been born during the preceding year. As the enumerated population was 1,396,530, the birth rate per thousand people must have been higher than 27.3. As at least one-fourth of all children born under such conditions as prevail in Cuba die before the end of the first year, a Cuban birth rate of 30 in 1861 may fairly be regarded as the minimum limit of probability, and the rate may have been as high as 35. The rate in Spain is rather over 35 (average annual birth rate in Spain 1865-1869, 36.7; 1878-1880, 35.7; 1887-88, 36.3). In Porto Rico the children under 1 in 1899 were 2.76 per cent of the population, and in Jamaica in 1891 they were 2.46 per cent. For these reasons the omissions in the returns tabulated above are probably in every case equal to at least one-half of the number reported, yet in most cases the municipal registers of births seem to have been kept with reasonable care during the civil war, and the very marked decrease in births, therefore, can not be explained as due to a breakdown of the system of registration. The indications of the preceding table confirm the results already reached in analyzing age statistics (p. 86). Even in their very fragmentary condition, therefore, they are of interest enough to warrant an analysis by provinces. In the following table the birth rate by provinces has been computed on the following assumptions: 1. That the annual increase of population from 1887 to 1894, inclusive, for each province except Habana, Puerto Principe, and Santiago was equal to one twentyseventh of the total increase from March 14, 1861, to December 31, 1887. 2. That the change from 1894 to 1899, except in Puerto Principe and Santiago, was one-fifth of the difference between the population of 1894 as thus estimated and the enumerated population of 1899. 3. That Puerto Principe and Santiago, the first of which decreased in population from 1861 to 1887 and increased from 1887 to 1899, while the second increased only slowly from 1861 to 1887, but rapidly between 1887 and 1899, made the entire gain between 1887 and 1894, and thereafter remained stationary for five years. 4. That in 1887, when the city as distinct from the municipal district of Habana was not separately reported, the population of the city bore the same relation to the population of the municipal district including it as it did in 1899. 5. That the population of Habana city increased steadily from 1887 to 1899 by an equal annual amount. In explanation of these assumptions it may be stated that the census of 1877 in Cuba, taken during the Ten Years' War, is probably much less trustworthy than that of 1861; that the population in 1861 of the provinces as now constituted has been carefully estimated for this census by methods elsewhere explained (pp. 699-702) and that the influx of immigrants into Habana city during the years of civil war may have caused an increase of population there while the total population of the island was decreasing. Approximate birth rate of Cuban provinces 1890-1899. 1892 Habana City Cuba 40 Few inferences can be drawn with confidence from a table in which the margin of error is as great as in the present. The records of the two provinces of Pinar del Rio and Santiago are evidently far more incomplete than those for the other provinces. One may note, however, the regular decrease in the birth rate in each province to a minimum in 1898, except for Santiago, where the rate for the year before was slightly less. In the four cases in which the birth rate for 1899 is given there was a marked rise which in Puerto Principe carried the rate well up toward the normal. In Habana city and Pinar del Rio the influence of recent disasters upon the birth rate was apparently much less marked than in any of the remaining four provinces, but owing to the serious omissions this inference regarding Pinar del Rio is of doubtful accuracy. In the following table the marriages and deaths reported in Cuba during the decade 1890-1839 are given by provinces and the marriage rates and death rates found on the same assumptions are added. In order to make the results more clear to the eye they have been expressed in graphic forms as a series of curves. Marriages reported for Cuba, by provinces and years. Marriage returns for Habana province outside of Habana city and for Pinar del Rio province have not been received. No returns were received from Matanzas province for 1894 and none for either Matanzas or Santa Clara province for 1899. The total for Santiago includes 456 marriages in Gibara and 60 in Mayari not distributed to the several years. No returns were received for Habana province outside Habana city, except for the first eight months of 1899, and these have not been included. No returns were received for Matanzas province for 1894, nor for Matanzas or Santa Clara province for 1899. The total for Santiago includes 3,109 deaths in Gibara and 103 in Mayari not distributed to the several years. The number of deaths reported during the four years 1890-1893 was 113,724, an annual average of 28,431. That during the four years 1895-1898 was 321.934, an annual average of 80,483 and an increase of 52,052 deaths a year over the number reported in time of peace and relative prosperity. This means an increase for the four years of 208,210 deaths over and above those which would have occurred had the conditions of the years immediately preceding persisted. To this number may, perhaps, be added 59,063 as the number by which the reported births for 1895-1898 fell below those for 1890-1893. By this method it appears that the loss of life in Cuba during the four years 1895-1898, resulting from an increase of deaths and a decrease of births from the ratios of the preceding years, was probably in round numbers not less than a quarter of a million (267,273). In judging this rough estimate it should be remembered that no returns at all were received from Habana province outside Habana city and that this territory included in 1899 one-eighth (12 per cent) of the population of Cuba. If one assumes that this territory lost in proportion to its population equally with the rest of Cuba, the approximate loss rises to over 300,000 (303,700). Even this number, if we note the evidence from the figures themselves that registration in many parts of Cuba has been defective, and recall that from a number of municipal districts no returns were received, may fairly be deemed rather an understatement of the actual loss of life. Pro mille ratio of marriages in Cuba to total (estimated) population, by provinces and years. Pro mille ratio of deaths in Cuba to total (estimated) population, by provinces and Marriage rates. 1899 The marriage rates for all years and all provinces are very low, due both to the small number of marriages in Cuba, for reasons explained in the discussion of marital conditions, and also to the imperfections of the records. Everywhere except in Habana city the marriage rates fell slowly after 1894 to a minimum reached in 1897, except in Santa Clara, where the rate in 1898 was somewhat lower. While the marriage and birth rates sank, the death rates rose to maxima usually in 1897, but in Habana city and Santiago the maxima were in 1898. The fluctuations from year to year are brought out clearly in the diagram. () 1894 20 30 1895 40 50 1896 60 1897 70 80 1898 90 100 1899 110 120 130 |