loud in their complaints when a fall in prices takes place, while it is precisely at this time that the consumers are benefited. There appears to be between the consumers and producers of French wheat a conflict of interests, so pronounced that in the words of Montaigne, the profit of the one is the loss of the other. Moreover the problem is far from being confined to France alone. To study it in all its bearings it is necessary to extend our observations over the entire universe.

"Less than half a century ago, the public mind was preoccupied with little beyond the cares of providing against a scarcity of provisions and of discovering the means of diminishing its evil consequences, but within the last few years fresh factors have come into play which have fixed themselves upon public attention. The peopling of new countries which the present century has witnessed has made its influence very severely felt in the old world. A fresh equilibrium has been established between the producing agents, and the period of transition is disastrous for the European countries, which had not then to struggle with these new comers, which to-day are the United States, Canada, India, and Australia, and to-morrow may be La Plata and Mada

gascar.

"The development of railways in the interior of the continents has been one of the principal causes of the rapid increase in the exports of cereals from these countries. Each mile of railroad open in a new country is a kind of centrifugal pump furnishing for exportation hundreds of tons of the products of this country. The development of the mercantile navies, more rapid even than that of the railways, has effected a considerable diminution in the rates of freight, and in the means of bringing within reach the markets of densely populated countries where products find a ready sale. In fine, a little development in the production, a little more in the circulation have done more in thirty years for universal competition than two centuries of steady progress in another age could have effected in this direction.

"From a strictly humanitarian point of view there is very little to regret in the events which have taken place of recent years, and they can only be attended with good results in the future; but looking at it from the standpoint of the interests involved, the results are widely different. The complaints of the agriculturists have become louder; under their influence the customs duties in a number of countries have been considerably increased, and the condition of the consumers very much modified.

"The production of wheat is limited to the temperate zone of our globe, and yet at the present day we find it extending to certain regions of British India, where only a short time ago it would have been considered impossible for it to have been effected on so vast a scale. The following table, which has been extracted from the returns of the Agricultural Department of Washington, shows the production of wheat in the various countries of the world in each of the years 1885 and 1886, as far as the same can be given:

VOL. L. PART IV.

2 Y

"These countries do not all present from an economic point of view the same degree of interest. Some like the United Kingdom and France are exclusively countries of importation; and they exercise a considerable influence upon the various markets. They are the countries in fact which cause the rise in prices; while the others such as the United States, India, and Canada are regular exporters; they constitute the granaries of the world, and represent the supply, that is to say the fall in prices. Owing to the numerous and rapid means of communication which exist at the present day, the consumer is brought within touch of the producer, and countries even those which, like Spain for example, seem by reason of the almost perfect equilibrium which exists between their production and consumption, independent therefore

in this respect of other countries, are influenced by this universal competition which is definitely established. What, it may be asked, will be the condition of the equilibrium which may be reasonably expected to be attained? This is a problem in the elucidation of which we must first of all enter into certain details respecting the principal factors of this equilibrium. At the present day there is an abundance of information upon this point, and the study becomes a comparatively easy one. We may take this opportunity of observing that all the data quoted in this present review are taken from the official returns of the various countries to which they refer.

"Among the principal wheat exporting countries the United States of America takes the first rank at the present day. The average annual exports from this country for the decennial period comprised between the years 1877-86 is about 94,900,000 bushels, and the annual yield amounts to 440 million bushels. And these figures, it may be observed, do not by any means represent the maximum yield attainable. It may we think be confidently predicted that twenty years hence the production will reach 550 million bushels, and the annual export 137 millions, and this is not an exaggerated estimate when we take into consideration the fact that the area of land available for wheat cultivation, notwithstanding several reports to the contrary, and particularly that of the Italian Senator Signor Lampertico, which has recently been issued, is still far from being exhausted.

"The United States, although appearing somewhat late in the field as a wheat cultivating country, has developed its production with astonishing rapidity. The following statement will show the progress made since the year 1839 :

"This enormous production admits of a considerable exporta tion of wheat and wheat flour, which was as follows during each of the years from 1877 to 1886 inclusive; the wheat flour being reduced to bushels of wheat:

"England receives the greater part of these exports of wheat and wheat flour, and the amount taken by her during the year 1886 amounted to 71,608,000 bushels, while the imports into France from the United States during each of the years from 1879 to 1886, according to the French official returns, were as follows:

"Although the maximum amounts correspond with the inferior harvests in France of 1879 and 1880, the importation of wheat into this country from the United States is far from being at an end.

"It must not, however, be forgotten that the population of the United States is rapidly increasing, it is not less at the present day than 60 millions, and, moreover, we gather from the Statistical Abstract for the year 1885, that the consumption per capita has a tendency to increase in equal ratio, it has risen in fact from 4 bushels per head to 6 bushels. It may therefore be predicted that the day will come when the United States with an overwhelming population will consume almost as much wheat as it produces. This, however, is not likely to happen for some considerable time to come, but it is a contingency which it would be well not to overlook. On the one hand, the American population increases with such rapidityfrom 23 millions in 1850 to 31 millions in 1860, to 38 millions in 1870, and to 50 millions in 1880-in fact it has more than doubled in a space of only thirty years. On the other hand, the land suitable for wheat cultivation will not, in all probability, be always

equally fertile: the nature of the soil, the scarcity of rain in the highlands comprised between 100° and 120° of longitude, will oppose serious obstacles to its extension. There is another important point which we cannot afford to overlook, namely, the relative weakness of the yield which, in the best years, like 1884, has not exceeded 13 bushels per acre. A careful cultivation ought necessarily to take the place of the present extensive cultivation, since the exhaustion of the natural fertility of the cleared lands, which is already beginning to be apparent, will itself become the principal obstacle to the continuance of the same cultivation.

"Since the year 1880 no progress, according to the statistical returns from which we have quoted, appears to have been made. The area devoted to wheat cultivation seems never to exceed 37 million acres, and the production varies between 360 and 500 million bushels. It may probably be that there is merely a temporary lull, but it is none the less an indication of considerable importance.

"The various systems adopted in the American grain trade have been minutely described in numerous reports, official and otherwise, and accounts have been given of the high wages paid to the workmen engaged in this industry, of the perfected machinery employed, the many ramifications of railway lines for transporting the crops, and of the elevators established in the various stations and ports for handling the grain. The grain trade appears to be centralised in two cities-New York and Chicago-although New Orleans and Saint Louis are not without importance in this industry. The best known varieties of wheat, and those which find the readiest sale on the markets, are the Red Winter No. 2 and the Spring Wheat No. 2, the latter being particularly preferred at Chicago. The wheats of California and Texas are also quoted separately on the markets of San Francisco and New Orleans.

"The second great wheat exporting country is India, where the English are straining every nerve to encourage its production, and with this object in view, the construction of railways and irrigating canals in the interior is being actively pushed forward. Nothing in fact is neglected to give an impetus to this important industry. Previous to 1870 Indian wheat was unknown in Europe, and people little thought that a country so densely populated would ever be able to become an exporter of so precious an article of food. A reference to the subjoined table will show the progress made in wheat exports from India since the year 1872-73 :