only about one-half of the previous maximum. If we could give similar figures for 1872 and 1873 as to persons of British and Irish origin only, a similar diminution of the amount of oscillation in 1881-85, as compared with 1872-77, would no doubt be apparent. In 1876-77 the net emigration of persons of British and Irish origin was about 35,000 only, on the average of the two years, the proportion to the population being o'10 per cent. only. Now in 1885 the corresponding figure is more than three times as large, being 122,000, or 034 per cent. of the population. Emigration has thus kept at a higher level during the last minimum period than in the minimum period eight or nine years before. It is also to be noticed that the interval between the maximum and minimum period has been shorter than on the former occasion. Between 1873 and 1877, the previous maximum and minimum years, the interval was four years, while between 1883 and 1885 the interval is only two years. As emigration usually rises and falls according to the prosperity or adversity of trade generally, and particularly in the countries of destination of the emigrants, and among these chiefly the United States, the shortness of the recent interval between the maximum and minimum years of emigration would seem to show that the last period of prosperity was less prolonged than the former one, and the succeeding period of adversity, a turn having already come, would also seem to have been shorter. These facts would also appear to correspond with much other evidence as to the course of trade. The oscillations lately have been shorter and less marked than on former occasions. The prosperity of the prosperous period has shown a less advance as compared with the previous period of adversity than has sometimes been shown, and the succeeding decline has also been less, although the resulting depression may be as great because the decline is from a less height. Why the oscillation is shorter, why the prosperous period should come to an end sooner than usual, and why the succeeding period of depression should also be shortened, are matters which it would be out of place to discuss here. The facts are only noted for reference, and with a view to comparison with subsequent experience, when it is seen how long the new period of prosperity will last, and what will be the effect on emigration and immigration.

"The details furnished in the accompanying tables supply one or two other points for observation in regard to the increased emigration in 1886. Of the total number of emigrants, 173,979 are returned as adult males, as against 134,435 in 1885, showing an increase of 29 per cent., a rather higher rate than that shown if women and children are also included.

"If, however, we confine our attention to the net emigration of the year, it appears that the increase among adult males is from 66,141 in 1885 to 109,397 in 1886, an advance of no less than 65 per cent., as compared with an increase of 25 per cent. on the total net emigration.

"The contribution made by Irish emigration to the general increase in 1886 is very small, as will appear from the following table:

(d.) British and Irish Emigration in 1886 and 1885.

"Thus the increase of Irish emigration was only 1,259, or about 2 per cent. as compared with 1885, while in the case of both English and Scotch emigrants the increase is nearly one-sixth. The proportion of Irish emigration to the total emigration of persons of British and Irish origin has fallen to 26 per cent., a decline of 5 per cent. below the annual average for the period 1881-85. This decline is the more noticeable when it is remembered how large the proportion of Irish emigration has frequently been in previous years, rising in some cases to over 60 per cent.

"As regards the destinations of the emigrants, it is to be remarked that the United States still attract by far the greatest number, more than 70 per cent. of the total emigrants going thither. Of emigrants of British and Irish origin only, 66 per cent. select the same destination, and this proportion also holds good if the net emigration only is considered. Next to the United States in attractiveness comes Australia, though the proportion of emigrants thither to the total number is hardly so large as in 1885. British North America, on the other hand, shows an increase both in the number and proportion of emigrants thither in 1886 as compared with 1885. Regard being had to the net emigration of

"In former reports attention has been drawn to the question of change of route in emigration itself, which may affect some of the figures. In fact, of late years a certain portion of the emigration from the United Kingdom has gone to the United States by way of the continental ports, Antwerp, Rotterdam, and Amsterdam. It would appear, however, that the number of emigrants proceeding by way of continental ports is small, and does not tend to increase materially. The following is an account of the emigration by this route in 1886, the figures being inserted here for future reference, and in continuation of those of last year:

persons of British and Irish origin, these colonies have received 17,578 emigrants in 1886, as against 10,517 in the year preceding.

"As regards Irish emigration, it has also again to be noted that the large proportion of females, and the small proportion of children, among emigrants of this nationality, to which attention has frequently been called, are still maintained. Males are about two to one, compared with females, among English and Scotch emigrants, but among the Irish the sexes are nearly equal; on the other hand, children are 17.8 per cent. of the English emigrants, and 206 per cent. of the Scotch, but among the Irish the proportion is only 11.2 per cent.

"With regard to statistics of occupations, it is difficult to ensure accuracy in the returns, nor are they by any means complete. One or two points, however, brought into prominence by these figures, may perhaps be noted.

"Of adult males, 62,680 are returned as 'general labourers,' and 16,719 as 'agricultural labourers, gardeners, and carters,' which figures would show that about three-sevenths of the adult British and foreign male emigrants from the United Kingdom can lay no claim to any technical skill. There is a noticeable increase in the number of emigrants classed as farmers and graziers, amounting to nearly 50 per cent., the figures being for 1886, 10,325, as against 6,968 for 1885.

"Liverpool continues to be the port of departure for nearly five-eighths of the total number of emigrants, London for oneeighth, the Clyde ports for a tenth, while about 9 per cent., a somewhat smaller proportion than usual, embarked in 1886 at Queenstown.

"Reference has been made in previous reports to the increase in the ordinary passenger movement between the United Kingdom and places out of Europe for purposes of business or pleasure, as distinguished from emigration in the ordinary sense. This increase was again continued in 1886, as will appear from the marked advance in the number of cabin passengers during the year shown in the following table :

Number of Cabin and Steerage Passengers leaving the United Kingdom for Places out of Europe, in each of the Years from 1876 to 1886 inclusive.

"From these figures it will be seen that the number of cabin passengers last year was the highest yet reached, exceeding the previous maximum (1884) by 1,979, and forming nearly 18 per cent. of the total number of emigrants.

"The usual tables are added, showing in detail the sex, age, condition, and occupations of the emigrants; the numbers departing from each of the ports of the United Kingdom; the particulars of detention money recovered by emigration officers; and (though the data for this return are necessarily very incomplete) the amount of remittances by settlers in the United States, British North America, and other places, to friends at home; together with comparative tables for series of years."

II.-Effects of Import Duties in New and Old Countries.

THE following remarks on this subject have been received from Dr. Loria, Professor of Political Economy and Statistical Science at the University of Siena, Italy.

Dans le vol. xlix. part ii, du Journal of the Statistical Society, M. Bourne traite avec beaucoup de talent et de profondeur l'intéressant sujet des influences des droits protecteurs sur le commerce international, et explique les divers effets que les droits produisent, suivant qu'ils soient imposés dans les pays nouveaux, où la population est faible, ou dans les anciens pays, qui présentent une plus forte densité de population. Or, comme la démonstration de M. Bourne sur ce dernier point ne me semble pas parfaitement exacte, je me permettrai d'exposer quelques remarques, ou quelques doutes, sur les ingénieux développements donnés par cet éminent statisticien.

La thèse de M. Bourne peut se résumer de la façon suivante : Dans les vieux pays, ou la population est très dense, un droit protecteur est immédiatement avantageux, car il permet d'employer des ouvriers, qui resteraient nécessairement sans travail si les consommateurs demandassent des produits étrangers; mais le surplus de production, qui résulte de l'emploi des nouveaux ouvriers, crée bientôt un excés de production, d'où suit probablement une crise commerciale. En outre, cet accroissement de la production provoque la mise en culture des terres plus stériles, ce qui diminue le taux du profit. Au contraire, dans les pays nouveaux le droit protecteur donne un avantage réel et durable aux producteurs des marchandises protégées; mais cet avantage n'est que le résultat d'un impôt qui frappe tous les consommateurs, c'est-àdire tous les autres producteurs.

Or il nous semble, avant tout, qu'on ne peut pas admettre que le droit protecteur permette de donner du travail à des ouvriers, qui, autrement, ne trouveraient pas d'emploi; car le nombre des ouvriers employables depend de la quantité de capital existante, et cette quantité n'est pas du tout augmentée par l'effet

du droit. Si, avant l'imposition du droit, les consommateurs d'un produit donné achetaient cet-ci chez les étrangers, cela signifie qu'un nombre donné d'ouvriers devait être employé à la production des marchandises, qui étaient exportées à l'étranger en échange de cet produit. Et si l'importation de cette marchandise devient impossible par effet d'un droit, cela signifie qu'on devra employer à sa production ces mêmes ouvriers, qui étaient auparavant employés à la production de la marchandise, qu'on exportait pour obtenir de l'étranger le produit demandé. Mais tout cela n'augmentera pas la demande de travail, ni le nombre des ouvriers employés, ni donnera lieu à un excès de production. Après, si nous examinons les phénomènes qui se passent dans les pays nouveaux, nous trouvons que le droit protecteur y sera sans doute une charge pour les consommateurs (ainsi que le remarque M. Bourne), mais qu'à cette charge ne correspondera pas un avantage des producteurs, car cet avantage est incompatible avec la libre concurrence. La perte des consommateurs sera égale au surplus de frais qui charge la production nationale en dessus de la production étrangère, mais elle ne pourra pas éxceder cette

mesure.

Si nous essayons d'exposer à notre tour la diverse influence du droit, suivant que l'on traite de pays surchargés de population ou de pays nouveaux, nous parvenons aux résultats suivants. Dans les pays qui présentent une forte densité de population et qui, par là même, sont surtout importeurs de blés, un droit protecteur, en arrêtant l'importation des vivres, donne lieu à une translation de capital de l'industrie à l'agriculture, et par là (comme le remarque fort justement M. Bourne) à la mise en culture des terreins plus inféconds; ce qui élève la rente foncière, diminue le taux du profit, retarde les progrés de l'accumulation, augmente le nombre des hommes sans travail, et prépare les crises. Au contraire, dans les pays nouveaux, qui exportent les blés en échange des produits manufacturés, un droit protecteur qui arreste l'importation de ces produits, donne lieu à une translation de capital de l'agriculture à l'industrie; d'où suit, d'un côté, que la culture des terres plus mauvaises est abandonnée, que la rente baisse et s'élève le taux du profit; de l'autre côté, que les produits manufacturés doivent renchérir, car leur production est à present plus coûteuse; ce qui diminue les profits réaux mesurés dans ces mêmes produits. l'élévation du coût des articles fabriqués, qui résulte du droit protecteur, absorbe tout le surplus de profit que le droit lui-même a produit, en faisant baisser la rente foncière, l'influence du droit se reduit en dernière analyse à cette-ci: qu'une fraction du produit total, qui auparavant faisait partie de la rente foncière, vient à present agrégée au profit du capitaliste, mais que cet-ci doit tout-de-suite la transmettre au manufacteur, pour compenser les frais de production additionnels que le droit même a créés. Bref dans ce cas tout le montant du droit est payé sur la rente foncière, et le revenu du capitaliste reste identique, quelque qu'il soit le système commercial. Si toutefois l'élévation du coût des articles fabriqués, qui résulte du droit protecteur, n'absorbe qu'une partie du surplus de profit que le droit lui-même a engendré, l'influence

Si