NOTE: The rates for 1960 differ slightly from those shown in table 2 because those have been recomputed on the revised population data for July 1960.

For men 55 to 64, this revision is based on 195461 trends in labor force participation for ages 55-59 and 60-64 separately, and trends in farm and nonfarm employment for the two age groups separately. The labor force participation rate for the 55-59 year group appears to be holding constant despite some decline in agricultural employment. For men 60-64, the rate has been edging down, possibly a reflection of increasing prevalence of disability and early retirement provisions in private pension plans.

There is, of course, a very large question as to the future effect of the social security amendment permitting men to retire at age 62 with reduced benefits which became effective in August 1961. The data on experience under the amendment do not provide a basis for projections. It is difficult to predict whether many workers would retire at this age under a full employment situation. On the other hand, early retirement has been one of the ways adopted in a number of industries to improve the balance between the labor supply and employment opportunities.10

In the absence of guidelines for projecting the effect of the social security amendment permitting earlier retirement, the past trend of slightly declining rates for the 60-64 age group was extrapolated to 1975. The rate for 55-59-year-old men was held constant at the average for 1955-61. The combined rate for these two groups, which in 1959-61 was about 0.7 percentage point below the 1955 base of 86.4 used as a constant in the earlier projection, shows a drop to 85.4 percent in 1965, 85.2 percent in 1970, and 84.8 percent in

1975. These reductions from the earlier projections of rates will mean 80,000 to 150,000 fewer labor force members of this age in the future.

Men 65 Years and Over. The labor force participation rates for men aged 65 and over have declined more rapidly in the last several years than was anticipated in the earlier projections on the basis of long-term reductions. Sizable declines have been occurring throughout the period since the end of World War II, in prosperous years as well as in recession years. Only in 1949 and in 1956 did the rate fail to decline over the preceding year. The 1956 break in pattern was followed by a drop of 2.5 percentage points in 1957 which can be associated with amendments to the Social Security Act. There has been a decline of 8.2 percentage points in the 5 years 1956-61 (averaging 1.6 percent a year). Even from the lowered level of 1957 there has been a decline of 5.7 percentage points in 4 years (averaging 1.4 percent a year). The 1961 rate of about 31 percent is the rate originally projected for 1975!

In the revised projections, advantage was taken of the greater amount of data available for ages 65-69 and 70 and over, by farm and nonfarm activity. Farm activity has dropped greatly for both age groups, particularly for the younger men. Nonfarm employment as a percent of total population of men 70 and over held at around 16 percent in 1959-61 after declining from around 18 percent in 1954-57, but the proportion of 65–69year-old men in nonagricultural jobs has continued to decline.

These trends by farm and nonfarm activity were extrapolated separately for each age group. The revised projections lower the labor force participation rate for the 70 and over group from 23.5 percent in 1960 to 21.6 percent in 1965, 20.6 percent in 1970, and 20.0 percent in 1975. The revised projected rates for 65-69-year-old men drop to 40.0 percent in 1965 (from 45.8 percent in 1960), 36.4 percent in 1970, and 34.5 percent in 1975. Weighted by the projected population, the rates for men 65 years and over decline to 25.4 percent by 1975. The revised projections,

10 See, for example, "Developments in Industrial Relations," Monthly Labor Review, May 1962, pp. 553–554; “Working Rules in West Coast Longshoring," Monthly Labor Review, January 1961, pp. 6-7; and "Early and Disability Retirement Under Collective Bargaining, 1959," Monthly Laber Review, November 1960, pp. 1176-1183.

compared with the earlier projections, would result in about 500,000 fewer older men in the labor force in each of the projected years.

Women 25 Years and Over. The labor force participation rates for women aged 25-34 have edged up but have not shown the sharp rise originally projected for 1960. A greater proportion of women in these ages have preschool-age children than was implied under the family formation rates used for the earlier study. The revised rates show a rise from 35.8 percent in 1960 to 38.0 percent by 1975. The difference between the old and the revised labor force projections for this age group amounts to about 200,000 fewer women in 1965, and about 170,000 fewer in 1970 and 1975.

The increases in labor force participation rates for women 35-44 and 45-54 years shown by the earlier projections appear to be in line with recent developments. Therefore, the original projections were used without any revision. Accordingly, the rates were projected as rising at a declining pace to 47.9 percent by 1975 for women 35-44 and to 56.0 percent for women

45-54. Any differences in labor force between the earlier and the new projection reflect only differences in the revised population.

Among women 55 years and over, labor force data by 5-year age groups are available for 195461 to age 70. Rates for women aged 55-59 have been rising very sharply and this trend was continued to 1975, but at a slower rate than the meteoric rise from about 32 percent in 1954 to 43 percent in 1961; i.e., to 47.0 percent in 1965, 50.5 percent in 1970, and 52.0 percent in 1975. The rates for the 60-64 women rose sharply from 26.5 percent in 1954 to 31.1 percent in 1959 and then leveled off. The proportion in the labor force was projected with a slight rise to 32.0 percent in 1975. Weighted by their respective population projections, these imply somewhat lesser increases in the rates for the group 55-64 years than originally projected. As a result of lower labor force participation rates, the revised labor force projection for this age group is about 70,000 lower than the earlier projection in 1965, 110,000 lower in 1970, and 200,000 lower in 1975.

For women aged 65-69, the rate rose from 15.6 percent in 1954 to 18.1 percent in 1956, edged

down to 16.6 percent in 1959, and has since showed some signs of moving up again. The rate for this group was projected at a gradual rise to 18.4 percent in 1975. The 70 years and over group has a very small proportion in the labor force a little over 6 percent in 1955-59 and around 6.5 percent in 1960-61. This group's rate was carried forward at a constant 6.6 percent to 1975. These rates imply a constant projected rate of 10.5 percent for women 65 years and over to 1975. This is lower than the earlier projections, which indicated a continued small rise in the rates that had been increasing erratically in the postWorld War II period up to 1956. The revised labor force rates for women 65 years and over imply fewer of this age in the labor force as compared with the earlier projection-by 130,000 in 1965, 200,000 in 1970, and 260,000 in 1975.

Size and Composition of the Labor Force

of the differences (table 3). The introduction of the revised population has no significant effect on the total labor force projection for 1965, which is lower by 0.9 million. Population revisions lower the overall 1970 and 1975 labor force projections by only 270,000 and 430,000-of the respective reductions of 1.4 and 1.7 million. However, the changes in the population projections are fairly important in accounting for differences in several age groups; for example, men 25-34 in 1965, 20-34 in 1970, and 20-44 in 1975. In a few ages, population revisions offset small revisions in labor force participation rates, for example, men 35-64 in 1965, 35-54 in 1970, and 45-54 in 1975. Thus, changed labor force participation rates cause the largest differences between the new and the old projections, particularly the reduced levels for men 65 years and over, young men 14-19, and women 25-34 as well as the increases for women 18-19 and 20-24.

On the basis of the projected trends, the total labor force can be expected to increase by 12.6 million between 1960 and 1970, to 85.7 million. This would represent a gain of 17 percent, compared with a growth of 13 percent or 8.3 million including the addition of about 300,000 civilian

labor force in Alaska and Hawaii) which occurred between 1950 and 1960 (table 4). The number of men can be expected to increase by 6.7 million and women by 5.9 million. In the preceding decade, more women than men were added to the work force-4.8 million women and 3.5 million men.

The general magnitude and pattern of changes by age-sex group are similar to those shown in the earlier projections. The most dramatic change expected in the 1960's is the sharp rise in the number of workers under 25 years of age. The net addition of over 6 million young workers (an increase of 45 percent) reflects the vast increase in their population during this period. In the preceding decade, there was relatively small growth in population 14 to 24 years of age and less than a half million of this age were added to the labor force. Between 1960 and 1970, only 600,000 men 25-44 years of age are expected to be added to the work force, with the 35-44 group actually declining as the population drops in size. Population growth will account for the expected 2.4-million rise in the work force among men 45-64 years of age. For men aged 65 and over, the declining labor force participation rate will keep the growing population from providing any net additions to the work force.

Among women 25 years and over, the number of workers is expected to rise by 3.6 million as a

result of population increases (except in ages 35-44) and rising labor force participation rates. If past trends continue, the growth will be particularly large among women 45 to 64 years of age, with a gain of 2.6 million representing better than a 30-percent rise.

The changes in the labor force between 1970 and 1975 will also be large if these trends in labor force participation rates continue, but the pattern will be somewhat different from that of 1960-70. In the 5 years after 1970, the labor force will increase by 7.3 million to 93 million. Men will account for much more of the growth than women-4.6 million as compared with 2.7 million. The number of young workers will rise at a more modest rate, close to 2 million, but will total 21.8 million in 1975. The large number of 20-29-yearold men of 1970 will be 25-34 years old in 1975 and will therefore provide an increase of almost 3 million workers in ages 25-34. The 35-44-year group of men will be slightly below the 1970 level. Men workers 45 years and over will increase by about 800,000.

The increase in labor force participation rates among adult women will probably be at a relatively slower pace than in the previous decade. As a result, population changes will be primarily responsible for the projected increase of 2.0 million women workers 25 years and over. Some rise in labor force participation rates is projected for women in ages 25 to 64 years, but this would account for less than 500,000 of the increase.

The differential changes by age and sex in the projected population and in the labor force participation rates will leave an imprint on the age and sex distribution of the labor force. This can be seen in table 5. Between 1950 and 1960, the proportion of the labor force in ages under 25 edged down from 20.6 percent to 18.7 percent; in 1970 and 1975, it is expected to be over 23 percent. The proportion that was 45 years and over moved up from 34.2 percent in 1950 to 37.6 percent in 1960 and is expected to be about 38 percent in 1970 and then edge down again. Women are expected to account for an increasing proportion of the future work force. Following the sharper increase in this proportion from 28.8 percent in 1950 to 32.2 percent in 1960, this projection plots further but more modest increases to 34.3 percent in 1970 and 34.5 percent in 1975.