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in the present conduct of the work comparability is stressed above everything else. It has been noted and statistically proven that, unless the general type of farmers replying to an inquiry on one date has practically the same composite as those replying on another date, the returns are likely not to be comparable, and the results of the analysis uncertain. For example, if on one date an inquiry is sent to a large number of general farmers and on another date is sent to a list of farmers among whom grain growers predominate, practically all ratios computed from the samples of the two dates would show so material a lack of comparability as to be practically useless as a basis for estimates. In like manner, if the wording of a particular inquiry is changed ever so slightly from one date to the next, some very astonishing results sometimes occur. The question of comparability of inquiries is so important that at times doubtful indications result from such a minor change as a misplacement of a comma in the inquiry. The time of the year and even the date of the month when an inquiry is made have a bearing upon the significance of the results. For example, the bureau, in making its forecasts of production based upon condition as of the 1st of the month, must maintain a well-defined schedule of dates upon which schedules shall leave Washington in order that none of the schedules shall reach the farmer too soon and that none shall reach him too late. In the event that there is a delay of even a few days in mailing out schedules, a distinct effect upon the resulting information has been noted.

In short, our experience emphasizes the conclusion that better results would be obtained if the information were obtained at about the same time of the year for each census period.

V. COMPLETENESS OF HARVEST BY JANUARY 1

While it is clear that there is a great advantage in having the enumeration taken at a time as nearly as possible to the completion of the harvesting of the crops, the question has been raised whether or not an earlier date, such as December 1 or January 1, would not be open to objection on the ground that so large a part of the harvest is yet incomplete that the farmer would not be able to give the information asked for. Apparently, however, this difficulty is not a serious one. As shown by the accompanying table, all the important crops are completely harvested by Ďecember 1, with the exception of the following: Corn (husking), cotton (picking), tobacco (stripping), citrus fruits, peanuts (threshing), rice. It is desirable to consider each of these briefly.

TABLE 5.—Percentage of crops of United States harvested monthly

[From Monthly Crop Reporter, October, 1919]

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Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent

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TABLE 5.-Percentage of crops of United States harvested monthly-Continued

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Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent Per cent

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Cotton. Data obtained by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics indicate that, on the average, about 79 per cent of the crop of cotton is harvested by November 1, and all but less than 5 per cent by December 1. Only about 4 per cent is harvested after January 1 of the following year. The accompanying table shows the contrasts between a number of the States in this regard. It appears that Missouri and California are the only States where a large percentage of the cotton is harvested in December or January. Of course, these are averages for a period of years. In the individual years the amount harvested after December 1 may be smaller or larger than the average shown. However, the fact that the Bureau of the Census makes an annual enumeration of ginnings makes the regular census figures on production of cotton comparatively unimportant. The figures on production as determined by the regular census are not available for many months after the enumeration is made, whereas the ginning reports are available immediately.

Tobacco. While all the tobacco is not stripped by November 30, it is all cut and stored, and in many areas is stripped or marketed or ready for market, and every farmer has definite information as to the number of pounds he has produced. In fact, our figures show that, on the average, the entire crop of tobacco has been harvested by November 1.

Peanuts.-Peanuts are gathered and largely marketed before the end of November, although in the northern areas a part of them may be still in the stack drying. Ordinarily, even then a large proportion of the nuts have been picked off, so that the yield is fairly well known. Our figures show that, on the average, only three-tenths of the peanut crop remains unharvested on December 1.

TABLE 6. Usual per cent of cotton harvested monthly

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Rice. A small quantity of late rice may be still unharvested on December 1. In fact, our figures show that on the average 2.4 per cent of the crop is harvested after December 1. However, this figure is so small that any margin of error in the farmer's estimate would have slight, if any, effect upon the reported size of the total crop.

Citrus fruits.-Citrus fruits are harvested throughout most of the year, so that one date is almost as good as another. In any event, accurate information concerning production is available through records of carload shipments.

Corn. While it is true that some corn is harvested after the first of December, statistics obtained by the Bureau of Agricultural Economics indicate that on the average less than 11 per cent of the corn remains unharvested on that date. It should be further noted that, even though some incompleteness in results as to crop yields may arise from taking the census as early as December 1 or November 1, such inaccuracies are of comparatively small significance because of the fact that yield data are much less important for statistical purposes than data on acreage. Yields vary so greatly from one year to another that a census every five years showing yields gives merely the results of the combination of weather and other crop conditions of that particular year. Furthermore, estimates of yields have become so complete as to provide data practically as accurate as can be obtained by an enumeration, and are usually available about a year before the census is published.

However, in making these estimates of yield correct data on acreage are essential. As pointed out elsewhere, acreage figures constitute a very vital basis for the periodic correction of the basic figures from which crop estimates are derived.

VI. INADVISABILITY OF APRIL 1 BECAUSE OF MOVEMENTS OF FARMERS BETWEEN CHRISTMAS AND APRIL 1

One of the most important objections, however, to taking the census of agriculture on April 1 is that a large proportion of the farmers of the country change from one farm to another and that a large percentage of these changes are made in the period between Christmas and March 1.

The extent of this movement is shown by reference to the following table. This table is based on the results of questionnaires sent to correspondents of the Department of Agriculture in 1926 asking them to report the number of farmers in a block of five adjacent farms who changed farms during the preceding year. TABLE 7.-Number and per cent of farmers moving during the crop year 1925–26

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TABLE 7.-Number and per cent of farmers moving during the crop year 1925–26— Continued

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The table shows that 14 per cent of the farmers of the United States moved during the crop year 1925-26. In other words, the total number of farmers who changed farms was about 890,000 out of a total of six and one-third million farmers. The percentage moving varied from about 7 per cent in the northeastern group of States to about 18 per cent in the southern group. In particular States the number moving ranges as high as one-fourth of the total number of farmers. While these data are to be regarded as only roughly accurate, they do indicate the large extent of this movement of farmers, and they are roughly confirmed by similar surveys made in two other years and by census data showing the period of occupancy of farmers at the time of enumeration.

A large proportion of this movement occurs in the period between December 1 and April1, as shown by the following table for 1924 based on unpublished data obtained in the agricultural census of that year. (Table 8.)

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1 Data from census schedules for all counties in the United States. A sample of approximately 100 farms per county was used.

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The table shows the movement of tenant farmers only, but it is a well-known fact that the movement of owners tends to correspond in time with that of tenants inasmuch as changes of farms must be made at the time the farms become vacant. According to this table, in the United States as a whole, 65 per cent of of the tenants who move make the change in the period from December to March, inclusive. Most of this movement comes in January and in March. The movement in December is only 72 per cent of the total number of tenants moving, and it is known that this occurs mainly in Southern States and in the latter part of the month, particularly from Christmas to the first of the year. In the Southern States the movement is heaviest in January, averaging 53.9 per cent in that month. In the North Central States, however, March is the period of heavy movement, averaging 44.1 per cent.

It is very clear from these facts that a very large proportion of the farmers of the United Sttes on April 1 will not be on the farms which they occupied in the preceding year, and consequently if they are asked to report the various lines of contained in the agricultural census as of the preceding year for the They are now occupying, they will have no such information since ve begun their operations for the new year.

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