« SebelumnyaLanjutkan »
the am CHAIRMANitions of the ulation tha
Mr. OLSEN. The State table particularly illustrates the fact that the movement from farm to farm is very heavy in the South. The State tables show that there is a great deal of variation in the movement from State to State.
The CHAIRMAN. From what source were these figures taken?
Mr. OLSEN. They have been gathered through special inquiries that we have made through our crop-reporting service.
The CHAIRMAN. Well, they are not census figures? Mr. OLSEN. They are not census figures. These particular data were not available from the census, but certain other tables I have here are taken from the census.
The CHAIRMAN. What I want to do is to establish the integrity of this table.
Mr. OLSEN. I can not say offhand how many returns we have for this table, but we have a reporting list of-how many farmers, Mr. Becker?
Mr. BECKER. We have an almost innumerable number of farmers, but the inquiries that this computation is based on went to probably 70,000 farmers, I would say, and we probably tabulated 15,000 or 20,000.
The CHAIRMAN. Seventy thousand out of 6,371,640 would not be a large per cent.
Mr. OLSEN. But we feel that these figures illustrate the situation in general using them as a sample of the whole. We have to use the sample method to get these data; we could not cover all farmers.
The CHAIRMAN. Now, if the Census Bureau takes a census of the agricultural conditions of the country, that will presumably be an accurate census; but this tabulation that you have submitted here is only based on 70,000 farmers out of 6,371,640.
Mr. MOORMAN. I beg your pardon, Mr. Chairman. He only submitted the inquiries to that number, but he got answers from only 15,000.
The CHAIRMAN. We would like to have the integrity of the tables established. I do not know whether the Census Bureau has any figures of this character or not.
Mr. OLSEN. Showing the farm movement?
Doctor HILL. Yes; the number of farmers that have been on the farms less than one year.
Mr. OLSEN. I think we have your data for the tenant farmers but we present a picture here of both groups of farmers.
The CHAIRMAN. I am not attacking the integrity of this chart, but I would like to have it established.
Mr. OLSEN. We think we have a particularly adequate sample to illustrate the movement for the country as a whole.
The CHAIRMAN. There has been a great deal of irritation, if I might term it that, in different parts of the country, even on account of census figures, when they are given out for the public, and people say, "That is wrong; I do not believe it is so.” The Census Bureau is, in a measure, equipped to establish or affirm their figures, but I should like to know if the Agricultural Department is in a position to affirm its figures as given in this table. It looks to me a good deal like a matter of—I will not say guesswork, because it has some substantial foundation, but whether that foundation goes far enough to warrant the percentages and the numbers that are given in this table, is a question with me.
Doctor Hill. It is only fair to say that those figures which they have up there, however they may have been obtained, are fairly consistent with the figures that we have got.
The CHAIRMAN. Then that establishes this table? Doctor Hill. I would not say they are absolutely accurate. The CHAIRMAN. But substantially so? Doctor Hill. Yes, sir. Mr. OLSEN. The department is making a great many investigations that are based on sample data; that is the method we have to use, because we can not take a census. Now, we have had to study the kind of sample, and determine how large that sample must be, to give us a representative figure. The department has used that method in all the data it has put out.
The CHAIRMAN. Doctor Hill substantiates it by saying that the figures do compare favorably with those obtained by the Census Bureau.
Mr. OLSEN. I think no further comments are necessary on that particular chart.
Doctor Hill. On the movement within a year? Mr. OLSEN. Yes, sir. Mr. Moorman. What is the purpose of your production of that particular map?
Mr. OLSEN. I might answer your question in this way, that the series of charts that I show you will point to a conclusion on the question of whether or not the farmers at a certain time of the year can adequately report the data called for in the census. I can present that better if you will permit me to present these tables.
TABLE 5.-- Per cent all tenants, croppers, and tenants, excluding croppers, are of
all farmers, 1925
also as to the question was up in the number of
Now, Table 5 is one showing the number of tenants in the country. The question was up in one of our early conferences, and also as to the extent to which croppers enter into tenant figures. So we show you the percentage that all tenants are of all farmers in the United States. As you will notice here, for the United States it is 38.6 per cent, and for the various sections of the country the percentage varies from 5.6 per cent in New England to 59.2 per cent in the West South Central States. Now, you have the croppers in the tenant figures, so we give you a second column showing the percentage of croppers to all farmers; and we give you in this column figures on tenants excluding croppers for the United States as a whole, which would be 28.8 per cent, for New England 5.6 per cent, for the Middle Atlantic 15.8 per cent, East North Central 26 per cent, West North Central 37 per cent, South Atlantic 25.5 per cent, East South Central 28.6 per cent, West South Central 40.1 per cent, Mountain 22.2 per cent, and Pacific 15.6 per cent. In other words, that gives a picture of the extent to which tenants make up the composition of the farm population.
The CHAIRMAN. That is tenants exclusive of croppers? Mr. OLSEN. First we have tenants, including croppers; then we have tenants, excluding croppers. You will notice that in the South you have a very high percentage of tenants. Now, one of the other tables that was distributed gives this data by States, but I take it that there is no special point in commenting on that situation. It is significant that in the South and also in the West North Central section you have tenant farmers running very high; in Iowa it is 44.7 per cent and in Nebraska 46.4 per cent; so that there is a very large tenant population in many sections of the country.
The next chart shows the months in which tenants move. We show on that chart the percentage for the United States as a whole and for the four subdivisions, Northeastern, North Central, South, and West.
TABLE 6.—Month in which tenants move
The CHAIRMAN. I take it that that chart is applicable to the question of fixing the date for taking the census?
Mr. OLSEN. Yes; that is quite right. The movement for the United States as a whole is 65 per cent between December 1 and April 1; 65 per cent of the tenants move in those months. The distribution by months is given in these several columns. In the Northeastern States 31.6 per cent of the tenants moved between December 1 and April 1.
The CHAIRMAN. That does not mean 31.6 per cent of all tenants?
Doctor Hill. That means 31.6 per cent of the tenants who do move, move within that period.
Mr. OLSEN. That is quite right; that is the point exactly. In the North Central section it is 58.3 per cent; in the South 80.2 per cent; in the West 46.4 per cent of the tenants that will be moving between December 1 and April 1.
Mr. LOZIER. Have you not found instances of this character, for instance, in the Middle West, where the wheat crop is seeded in the fall and the forage crop in the spring. Do not a great many tenants live upon one farm in the spring and then move to the other farm in the fall to put in their wheat crops?
Mr. OLSEN. You mean where they are running two crops, a fall as well as a spring crop?
Mr. LOZIER. Yes; in the Middle West practically every farmer grows both wheat and corn, and many tenants will move on to a farm the 1st of March, which is the almost universal date for moving in Missouri, and many of them will continue upon that farm until fall; and if they are unable to rent that farm, or if it is not satisfactory, they will rent another farm upon which there is wheat land. Many of them will then move upon the other farm in the fall, so as to put out their wheat crop. Now, do you experience trouble in instances where a man moves twice in the year; that is, he moves on the farm in the spring to put out his corn crop, and then moves in the fall to put out his wheat crop, knowing that he will ultimately give up that first farm on March 1?
Mr. OLSEN. You might have some instances of that kind, but I do not believe they would be enough to vitiate the general tendency shown by this chart. Another point you may have in mind is this, that you will find a good many of the tenants who are growing winter wheat move to town; they are not out on the farm after they harvest their crop; they may be in near-by towns, of course. But I believe that would be a negligible factor in taking the census.
Mr. MOORMAN. I would like to ask a question about this matter of illustration; what is the purpose in showing us this diagram?
Mr. OLSEN. The purpose of this is to show you the heavy movement of the tenants who move from one farm to another annually, which takes place between December 1 and April 1.
Mr. MOORMAN. That is what I understood. Now, when is it that you are proposing to take this census, as of what date?
Mr. OLSEN. We have been proposing December 1.
Mr. MOORMAN. Now, if you started to take this census as of December 1, how many enumerators is it going to take, to take this census, Mr. Hill, 80,000?
Doctor HILL. Ninety thousand. Mr. MOORMAN. Ninety thousand enumerators will commence work about that time, about December 1?
Mr. OLSEN. Yes, sir.
Mr. MOORMAN. Now, your diagram there shows that 80 per cent of all the tenants that move in certain sections of the United States, move between December 1 and April 1; or in other words, while these 90,000 people are out taking the census, 80 per cent of all the moving that is done in the country by these people will be going on right at the time that they are trying to take the census. Do you realize that now?
Mr. OLSEN. But the point is that there is, particularly in the South, quite a little movement of tenants in the month of December, but your heavy movement is in January.
Mr. MOORMAN. Don't you know it takes two or three months to take the census, and would not there be just as many of the 90,000 at work then as in the other month?
Mr. OLSEN. I think probably the census people can answer that question better than I can, as to how long it will require to take the census. I think it would not be much over a month; that is, you
could get your schedules taken in about a month. Am I right, Doctor Hill?
Doctor Hill. Well, it will average 60 days.
Mr. MOORMAN. Then according to your own representation of the proposition here, there would be those 90,000 people faced with the confusion of the heaviest movement of tenants that exists--or farmers generally---at any time during the year. Now, I would like to ask you, as a practical proposition-I heard you say the other day that you were raised on a farm out west-don't you know that in the movement of those tenants it would be absolutely impossible for an enumerator to tell where they lived, if they were taking the census at that time?
Mr. OLSEN. I think probably you would find that special effort would be made to have the census taken during the month of December, or as quickly as possible, for the region where the heaviest movement is.
Mr. MOORMAN. Does the gentleman from the Department of Agriculture undertake to say, in the face of the statement of the gentleman from the Census Bureau, that it would be taken in one month, when the gentleman just said it would take an average of 60 days, and we know that it will take longer than that in a great many instances?
Mr. OLSEN. I think possibly there is a question of variation, because your census may take longer in one section than in another. I do not think it would necessarily follow that it would take the same length of time in all sections of the country. But you have another problem, which I would be glad to comment on, of taking a census after these tenants have all moved from the farms.
Mr. MOORMAN. Does not the gentleman know that those tenants do not move on an average of more than 5 or 6 miles? Mr. OLSEN. My next chart will illustrate that point.
The CHAIRMAN. In the first column of the chart you have been discussing you give the total 100 per cent; and I see that in the South, where the movement is probably greater than in any other part of the country, from December to March inclusive the percentage is given as 80.2; in January, 53.9 per cent; in February, 5.1 per cent; and in March, 9.4 per cent. Now, is it not the presumption that these men who move, move from one farm to another? Mr. OLSEN. Yes, sir.
The CHAIRMAN. Would not those figures show that more men would be on their farms the 1st of AprilMr. OLSEN. But the point would be this
The CHAIRMAN. Just a minute. You do not presume that the farm that a man moves from is going to be unoccupied the next year? Is that your presumption?
Mr. OLSEN. No, sir; not at all. It is very likely it would be occupied.
The CHAIRMAN. On your own figures, on the 1st of April, 80.2 per cent of those who do move having moved between December and March, inclusive, there would only be one-fifth who had not moved, and would not the enumerators be more apt to get the information from the men on the farms, than by going from one farm to another?
Mr. OLSEN. The point is this, that they will get these farmers who have moved on to farms just before the census is taken, and how