Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners

Sampul Depan
J.S. Armstrong
Springer Science & Business Media, 2001 - 849 halaman
3 Resensi
Principles of Forecasting: A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners summarizes knowledge from experts and from empirical studies. It provides guidelines that can be applied in fields such as economics, sociology, and psychology. It applies to problems such as those in finance (How much is this company worth?), marketing (Will a new product be successful?), personnel (How can we identify the best job candidates?), and production (What level of inventories should be kept?).
The book is edited by Professor J. Scott Armstrong of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Contributions were written by 40 leading experts in forecasting, and the 30 chapters cover all types of forecasting methods. There are judgmental methods such as Delphi, role-playing, and intentions studies. Quantitative methods include econometric methods, expert systems, and extrapolation. Some methods, such as conjoint analysis, analogies, and rule-based forecasting, integrate quantitative and judgmental procedures. In each area, the authors identify what is known in the form of `if-then principles', and they summarize evidence on these principles.
The project, developed over a four-year period, represents the first book to summarize all that is known about forecasting and to present it so that it can be used by researchers and practitioners. To ensure that the principles are correct, the authors reviewed one another's papers. In addition, external reviews were provided by more than 120 experts, some of whom reviewed many of the papers. The book includes the first comprehensive forecasting dictionary.
 

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INTRODUCTION
1
ROLE PLAYING
13
A METHOD TO FORECAST DECISIONS
15
INTENTIONS
31
METHODS FOR FORECASTING FROM INTENTIONS DATA
33
EXPERT OPINIONS
57
IMPROVING JUDGMENT IN FORECASTING
59
IMPROVING RELIABILITY OF JUDGMENTAL FORECASTS
81
JUDGMENTAL ADJUSTMENT OF STATISTICAL FORECASTS
405
COMBINING FORECASTS
417
EVALUATING METHODS
441
EVALUATING FORECASTING METHODS
443
ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY
473
PREDICTION INTERVALS FOR TIMESERIES FORECASTING
475
OVERCONFIDENCE IN JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING
495
GAINING ACCEPTANCE
517

DECOMPOSITION FOR JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING AND ESTIMATION
107
THE ROLE OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE
125
CONJOINT ANALYSIS
145
FORECASTING WITH CONJOINT ANALYSIS
147
JUDGMENTAL BOOTSTRAPPING
169
INFERRING EXPERTS RULES FOR FORECASTING
171
ANALOGIES
193
TIME SERIES
195
EXTRAPOLATION
215
EXTRAPOLATION FOR TIMESERIES AND CROSSSECTIONAL DATA
217
NEURAL NETWORKS FOR TIMESERIES FORECASTING
245
RULEBASED FORECASTING
257
USING JUDGMENT IN TIMESERIES EXTRAPOLATION
259
EXPERT SYSTEMS
283
EXPERT SYSTEMS FOR FORECASTING
285
ECONOMETRIC FORECASTING
303
SELECTING METHODS
363
SELECTING FORECASTING METHODS
365
INTEGRATING ADJUSTING AND COMBINING
387
JUDGMENTAL TIMESERIES FORECASTING USING DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE
389
SCENARIOS AND ACCEPTANCE OF FORECASTS
519
MONITORING FORECASTS
541
COPING WITH HINDSIGHT BIAS AND AMBIGUITY
543
APPLICATIONS OF PRINCIPLES
555
POPULATION FORECASTING
557
IMPLICATIONS FOR TIMESERIES EXTRAPOLATION
577
ECONOMETRIC MODELS FOR FORECASTING MARKET SHARE
597
FORECASTING TRIAL SALES OF NEW CONSUMER PACKAGED GOODS
613
DIFFUSION OF PRINCIPLES
631
DIFFUSION OF FORECASTING PRINCIPLES THROUGH BOOKS
633
DIFFUSION OF FORECASTING PRINCIPLES THROUGH SOFTWARE
651
SUMMARY
677
STANDARDS AND PRACTICES FOR FORECASTING
679
FORECASTING STANDARDS CHECKLIST
733
EXTERNAL REVIEWERS
739
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
745
THE FORECASTING DICTIONARY
761
AUTHOR INDEX
825
SUBJECT INDEX
843
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Tentang pengarang (2001)

Professor Armstrong is the author of Long-Range Forecasting and he is a founder of the Journal of Forecasting, the International Journal of Forecasting, the International Institute of Forecasting and the International Symposium on Forecasting. For additional information on the book and on the Forecasting Principles Project, see jscottarmstrong.com.

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