into operation very successfully so far, accompanied by the warehousing system, and notwithstanding the defects in its details, commerce would soon adapt itself to it were it not for the fears of new changes constantly hanging over operators. The Mexican war is also apparently no nearer its termination than when the Mexicans first pushed across the Rio Grande, and the government has asked for a loan of $20,000,000 to carry it through to July, 1848. All these are influences which tend to repress the buoyancy of the markets and check the growing enterprise. In England and western Europe the great railroad speculations that have been swelling in magnitude for the last three years are producing the natural results of overaction. A great and ruinous fall has manifested itself in most west of Europe roads, involving the ruin of many eminent capitalists in most of the leading cities. In Germany, France, and Holland, the number and magnitude of projected roads is very great, and the operations in the shares have led to a demand for money at a time when the constant flow of silver, which is the legal tender of those countries, to Russia, as well as in consequence of the large purchases of grain by those countries, has produced a stringency of the money market. The counterflux of gold from Russia has found a resting place mostly in the Bank of England, and money is cheaper in London than at most places on the continent. In London, the minimum bank rate for money was 3 per cent per annum; at Paris, 5 per cent; Amsterdam, 5 per cent; Hamburgh, 6 per cent. The Bank of France seldom raises its rate of interest above 4 per cent, and so great was the demand. at that rate that the Bank of France, on one discount day at the close of October, discounted $17,000,000; a sum larger than it ever did before at one time. Money cannot of course continue so much dearer on the continent than in London for any length of time without producing an export of coin from the latter, and this point was rapidly approaching at our latest dates. RATES OF BILLS IN LONDON. 4.11 4.11 Dollars, new....... 4.91 June 4. Sept. 4. Oct. 9. Oct. 23. Oct. 30. Nov. 6. Nov. 13. Nov. 19. Dec. 3. 25.95 2590 25.85 13.11 13.11† 13.11† 13.11 25.65 25.62 25.571 10.6 10.06 10.5 5.01 5.01 The fall on Paris is very great from September 4, being 42 centimes per pound sterling. The price of silver has also risen 1d. per oz. with a good demand. The variation in the exchanges, according to the published weekly formula, is as follows on Paris :— Down to the 3d December, or in the space of five weeks, gold fell in London as compared with Paris 0.873 per cent, and bills were still falling with a languid demand. It requires now but a slight continuance of the decline to promote an export of coin from England. Some £45,000 were shipped in the last week of November, and a considerable decline had taken place in the specie held by the bank, as follows: £15,816,626 £15,143,048 £14,893,906 Nov. 7. 2,511,774 £14,760,506 The decrease in this period was over £1,000,000, mostly in gold coin, partly for payment of wages on the works in Ireland undertaken by the government for the relief of the destitute, and partly in consequence of the usual enlargement of the specie circulation which takes place in the fall of the year, when the farmers bring in their new crops. The prospect now is, that an export will take place to the continent to some extent, as well as to the United States. The rise in prices of food may partially create the enhanced demand, as well as the railroad speculations. The French roads appear now to be calling in instalments to a very considerable extent. At the close of October, the Paris northern line advertised a call of $15 per share for the 2d of January, and $10 for the 1st of July. The two calls amount to $6,000,000; and as the shares, as is usual in times of speculation, were in the hands of weak holders who had hypothecated them, they were obliged to sell out. Four large capitalists, viz.: three peers of France and a manufacturer, were forced to sell out. The Lyons road also made a call, and was followed by others, and thirteen roads have made calls for $31,000,000, payable within a year. These large calls on a restricted money market caused a kind of panic, aided by the state of political affairs between England and France. The latter cause was somewhat modified by the fact that the English minister, Lord Normanby, had called upon the Duke and Duchess Montpensier, a fact regarded on 'change as a renewal of a good understanding between the governments. Nevertheless the fall in the value of the shares of nineteen French roads equalled $46,000,000, and was productive of some uneasiness. In a former number we gave a table of the capital authorized in England for the construction of railroads, amounting to the incredible sum of over $1,000,000,000, part of which was in process of expenditure, and had resulted in greatly enhancing the consumption of all necessaries and comforts by the people. It has been a curious result of the payment of money wages to the destitute of Ireland, that the consumption of sugar and tea had increased in those districts very perceptibly. It is doubtless measurably owing to the railroad expenditures that the scarcity of food exists both in western Europe and England. The people have been enabled to consume more of the necessaries of life than usual, as well vegetable food as other dutiable articles, all which have shown so decided an increase; and in considering the probable extent and continuance of the English demand for food, these facts should be borne in mind. As thus, if the present demand arises solely from a short crop, it may be supposed to be quite temporary, and to cease with the return of favorable seasons. If, however, it grows also to a considerable extent out of increased consumption, consequent upon the im proved condition of the people, it is not only permanent in its nature, but susceptible of a great increase. There is no doubt but Great Britain by itself, is, in respect of the higher descriptions of grain, well supplied, as compared with the supplies of former years, but also that the consumption of wheat and wheat flour by those accustomed to consume is much greater than usual; and farther, that owing to the positive deficit of potatoes in Ireland, and of beans and peas, as well as rye, in Europe, that the consumption by those not hitherto accustomed to consume wheat, is large. The quantity of foreign flour taken into consumption in a few months is nearly equal to 2,000,000 barrels; notwithstanding which, the mills all over England are in a state of the utmost activity, the demand for flour good, and the prices of animal food very high. The corn trade of the world, as connected with the English demand, has suffered violent vacillations in a few weeks from a very singular cause, viz.: the most profligate conduct on the part of the London Times newspaper. It is known and admitted that that is the most powerful and influential journal of the world. It enjoys the reputation of being in the confidence of the government, and as such it enjoys an unusual degree of influence, which it exerted for three successive weeks in September and October to promote a panic, through the most exaggerated statements in regard to an alleged approaching famine. These statements materially aided the advance in prices, which reached a level of 62s. 3d. for wheat, for the week ending November 7. Just before the sailing of the American steamer of November 4, however, it suddenly changed its views, and pronounced the alarm in relation to the crops as "wholly without foundation," and also predicted the receipt of some 5,000,000 quarters of foreign grain in England before January, 1847; an exaggeration as great in the opposite direction as had been its previous alarm notes. The effect of this appeared to be, although the statements exhibited too little acquaintance with facts to influence those familiar with the trade, to induce farmers to thresh freely and send to market to avail themselves of the high prices, importers to meet the market freely, and buyers to restrict their purchases in anticipation of the low prices which the great supplies predicted by the Times were to bring about. These combined circumstances created a pause in the market, and influenced the New York and United States markets generally on their arrival here, and prices fell to $5 for flour, but subsequently recovered themselves. The effect of this seemed to be only to hurry the consumption of the English supplies, and will result in a greater demand for foreign supplies towards the close of the year. The French government were also stimulated into large purchases for the consumption of that country by the frightful statements in regard to the prospective wants of England. All the indications are, however, that the demands for United States produce are not of a purely temporary character, arising from the mere failure of the harvest, but are of a permanent character and likely to lead to great results. The greatest drawback at this time on the trade, is the want of adequate tonnage to transport the produce at rates sufficiently cheap to allow of a fair proportion of the sales falling to the share of the farmer. Hence, notwithstanding the great sales that have taken place during the fifteen months ending with December, 1846, the real means of the farmer have not been materially enhanced. The scarcity of food in England and Europe does not now apparently produce its usual effects in diminishing the price or the consumption of cotton; a fact which corroborates the evidence, that the demands for food arise from increased consumption. The supply of cotton for the year ending September 30, was less than the demand; a fact clearly indicated in the diminished stocks, which were as follows: 1845..... 1846........ STOCKS OF COTTON, SEPT. 30-BALES. Holland. Antwerp. Hamburg. Trieste. France. England. U. States. Total, 15,000 24,000 16,000 30,360 88,900 937,490 68,085 1,179,835 6,000 8,000 6,000 22,700 54,000 652,800 77,186 826,686 7,660 34,900 284,690 353,149 9,101 Decrease, 9,000 16,000 10,000 Increase,. The decrease in stocks is general and large, arising from enhanced deliveries for consumption, which in France and England have been as follows, for ten months, ending October 31 : France.... England....... Total bales.......... 1844. 1845. 1846. This increase is equal to 16 per cent, or 256,000 bales, and this at a time when food has been high. Prices have felt this state of affairs, and are higher than for three years, being at Liverpool as follows: CURRENT PRICES, NOV. 13, WITH THOSE OF 1845 AND 1844. These prices average 20 per cent higher than last year, when they were slightly in advance of those current at the same time in 1844. The quantity exported last year was 1,666,792 bales, or 666,716,800 pounds, worth the price of fair New Orleans in November, or an average of $66,842,000. The crop of this year will afford but a less quantity for export, and if estimated at 1,500,000 bales, will, at the price of fair Orleans, at Liverpool, November 13, be worth $72,000,000, or over $5,000,000 more than the crop of last year, under the supposition that no farther advance will take place. The cotton interest will therefore receive no detriment from those occurrences that are enhancing the welfare of the western farming interest. From all these circumstances it results that large imports must be made in payment of the produce sold abroad, even if the import trade is confined strictly to returns of produce sold, and it is highly probable that to admit of these returns the value of imports will, for the coming year, be considerably enhanced. It is not probable, however, that any speculative imports will take place to any extent beyond what will be paid for by the exports. The modification of the tariff will probably affect the imports in no other way than by admitting goods bearing low duties, instead of an amount of specie, which might be forced home were goods excluded. That is to say, if a certain amount of produce is sold abroad, it is clear that the proceeds must come home; if, then, the tariff excluded goods or taxed them too highly, the medium of remittance would be specie; if the taxes are relaxed, goods will take the place of specie, and the government revenue be enhanced. On many goods, however, French manufactures in par ticular, the duties are raised by the new tariff, and therefore the enhanced sales to that country are more likely to be paid in specie, more particularly, as we have seen, that the exchanges are in favor of France as relates to England. In former years, more particularly 1839, when the duties on French goods were very low, the imports from that country were very large, and were paid for by bills on England, and those bills running on London in favor of France on American account added seriously to that drain upon the Bank of England which so nearly jeopardized its existence in October, 1839. The new tariff appears to change the relations between the three countries, inasmuch as that by raising the duties on French wines and silks, and lowering those upon British goods, it encourages a direct trade between England and America, and tends to check that with France. Indeed, the trade has hitherto always been in favor of the United States against England, and in favor of France against the United States, and England has paid France the balance. The course of the French government has always been commercially hostile to the United States ;-while the latter have admitted French goods at very low duties, France has nearly prohibited United States produce. The French wine and silk interests will now exert themselves to procure a modification of the duties on American produce, particularly tobacco. It is doubtless true that the import of goods under the new tariff will be larger than were the tariff of 1842 to remain in operation, and that the import of specie will be less than would have been the case. We apprehend, however, that the operation of the sub-treasury law, with its specie clause, will, until the commercial community have become accustomed to it, tend to prevent any extraordinary import of goods, how low soever may be the duties. The following are the offi cial figures for the imports and exports for five years, ending June 30, 1816:— IMPORT OF GOODS INTO THE U. STATES, UNDER THREE TARIFFS.-YEAR ENDING JUNE 30. 1842. 1843. 1841. 1844. 1845. Tariff of 1842. 1846. $52,315,291 12,494.340 31.352,863 36,263,784 13,254,258 18,936,452 18,077,598 20,990,007 $42,433,464 $102-604,606 $113,176,966 $117,914,244 EXPORTS FROM THE UNITED STATES. Domestic produce... Foreiga free goods... ad valorem.. specific.. Total. $99,531,774 2,251,550 $96,348,386 $91,799,242 $77,686,355 2,702,251 $104,529,621 $99,812,981 882,825,233 $195,475,832 $106,040,111 $109,582,248 It appears that the import of dutiable goods was, in 1846, $96,924,234, and the duties netted to the Treasury $26,712,667, or 27 per cent average. The Secretary estimates the receipts at $27,835,731 for the year ending June 30, 1847; of which, five months will be under the old tariff, and seven months under the new; and for the year 1848, $28,000,000, which supposes an import of $112,000,000 |