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Since the estimates are based on a sample, they may differ from the figures that would have been obtained if it were possible to take a complete census using the same schedules and procedures.

The standard error is a measure of sampling variability, that is, the variations that might occur by chance because only a sample of the population is surveyed. The chances are about 2 out of 3 that an estimate from the sample would differ from a complete census by less than the standard error. The chances are about 19 out of 20 that the difference would be less than twice the standard error.

Table A shows the average standard error for the major employment status categories, by sex, computed from data for past months. Estimates of change derived from the survey are also subject to sampling variability. The standard error of change for consecutive months is also shown in table A. The standard errors of level shown in table A are acceptable approximations of the standard errors of year-to-year change.

Table A. Average standard error of major employment status categories

(In thousands)

Average standard error of-

other characteristics and are approximations of the standard errors of all such characteristics. They should be interpreted as providing an indication of the order of magnitude of the standard errors rather than as the precise standard error for any specific item.

The standard error of the change in an item from one month to the next month is more closely related to the standard error of the monthly level for that item than to the size of the specific month-to-month change itself. Thus, in order to use the approximations to the standard errors of month-to-month changes as presented in table C, it is first necessary to obtain the standard error of the monthly level of the item in table B, and then find the standard error of the month-to-month change in table C corresponding to this standard error of level. It should be noted that table C applies to estimates of change between 2 consecutive months. For changes between the current month and the same month last year, the standard errors of level shown in table B are acceptable approximations.

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Under cooperative arrangements with State agencies, the respondent fills out only one employment or labor turnover schedule, which is then used for national, State, and area estimates. This eliminates duplicate reporting on the part of respondents and, together with the use of identical techniques at the national and State levels, insures maximum comparability of estimates.

State agencies mail the forms to the establishments and examine the returns for consistency, accuracy, and completeness. The States use the information to prepare State and area series and then send the data to the BLS for use in preparing the national series.

Shuttle Schedules

Two types of data collection schedules are used: Form BLS 790--Monthly Report on Employment, Payroll, and Hours; and Form DL 1219--Monthly Report

on Labor Turnover. These schedules are of the "shuttle" type, with space for each month of the calendar year. The collecting agency returns the schedule to the respondent each month so that the next month's data can be entered. This procedure assures maximum comparability and accuracy of reporting, since the respondent can see the figures he has reported for previous months.

Form BLS 790 provides for entry of data on the number of full- and part-time workers on the payrolls of nonagricultural establishments and, for most industries, payroll and man-hours of production and related workers or nonsupervisory workers for the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. The labor turnover schedule provides for the collection of information on the total number of accessions and separations, by type, during the calendar month.

CONCEPTS

Industrial Classification

Establishments reporting on Form BLS 790 and Form DL 1219 are classified into industries on the basis of their principal product or activity determined from information on annual sales volume. This information is collected each year on a supplement to the

monthly 790 or 1219 report. For an establishment making more than one product or engaging in more than one activity, the entire employment of the establishment is included under the industry indicated by the most important product or activity.

All national, State, and area employment, hours, earnings, and labor turnover series are classified in accordance with the Standard Industrial Classification Manual, Bureau of the Budget, 1957, as amended by the 1963 Supplement.

Industry Employment

Employment data except that for the Federal Government refer to persons on establishment payrolls who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. For Federal Government establishments, employment figures represent the number of persons who occupied positions on the last day of the calendar month. Intermittent workers are counted if they performed any service during the month.

The data exclude proprietors, the self-employed, unpaid volunteer, or family workers, farm workers, and domestic workers in households. Salaried officers of corporations are included. Government employment covers only civilian employees; military personnel are excluded.

Persons on an establishment payroll who are on paid sick leave (when pay is received directly from the firm), on paid holiday or paid vacation, or who work during a part of the pay period and are unemployed or on strike during the rest of the period, are counted as employed. Not counted as employed are persons who are laid off, on leave without pay, or on strike for the entire period, or who are hired but do not report to work during the period.

Industry Hours and Earnings

Hours and earnings data are derived from reports of payrolls and man-hours for production and related workers in manufacturing and mining, construction workers in contract construction, and non supervisory employees in the remaining non farm components. For Federal Government, hours and earnings relate to all employees who worked or received pay during the pay period which inIcludes the 12th of the month. Terms are defined below. When the pay period reported is longer than 1 week, figures are reduced to a weekly basis.

Production and related workers include working foremen and all nonsupervisory workers (including leadmen and trainees) engaged in fabricating, processing, assembling, inspection, receiving, storage, handling, packing, warehousing, shipping, maintenance, repair, janitorial and watchman services, product development, auxiliary production for plant's own use (e.g., power plant), and recordkeeping and other services closely associated with the above production operations.

Construction workers include the following employees in the contract construction division: Working foremen,

journeymen, mechanics, apprentices, laborers, etc., whether working at the site of construction or in shops or yards, at jobs (such as precutting and preassembling) ordinarily performed by members of the construction trades.

Nonsupervisory employees include employees (not above the working supervisory level) such as office and clerical workers, repairmen, salespersons, operators, drivers, physicians, lawyers, accountants, nurses, social workers, research aids, teachers, draftsmen, photographers, beauticians, musicians, restaurant workers, custodial workers, attendants, linemen, laborers, janitors, watchmen, and similar occupational levels, and other employees whose services are closely associated with those of the employees listed.

Payroll covers the payroll for full- and part-time production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers who received pay for any part of the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. The payroll is reported before deductions of any kind, e.g., for old-age and unemployment insurance, group insurance, withholding tax, bonds, or union dues; also included is pay for overtime, holidays, vacations, and sick leave paid directly by the firm. Bonuses (unless earned and paid regularly each pay period), other pay not earned in pay period reported (e.g., retroactive pay), tips, and the value of free rent, fuel, meals, or other payment in kind are excluded.

Man-hours cover man-hours worked or paid for, during the pay period which includes the 12th of the month, for production, construction, or nonsupervisory workers. The man-hours include hours paid for holidays and vacations, and for sick leave when pay is received directly from the firm.

Overtime hours cover hours worked by production or related workers for which overtime premiums were paid because the hours were in excess of the number of hours of either the straight-time workday or the workweek during the pay period which includes the 12th of the month. Weekend and holiday hours are included only if overtime premiums were paid. Hours for which only shift differential, hazard, incentive, or other similar types of premiums were paid are excluded.

Gross Average Hourly and Weekly Earnings

Average hourly earnings are on a "gross" basis, reflecting not only changes in basic hourly and incentive wage rates, but also such variable factors as premium pay for overtime and late-shift work, and changes in output of workers paid on an incentive plan. Shifts in the volume of employment between relatively high-paid and low-paid work and changes in workers' earnings in individual establishments also affect the general earnings averages. Averages for groups and divisions further reflect changes in average hourly earnings for individual industries.

Averages of hourly earnings differ from wage rates. Earnings are the actual return to the worker for a stated period of time; rates are the amounts stipulated for a given unit of work or time. The earnings series does not measure the level of total labor costs on

the part of the employer since the following are excluded: Irregular bonuses, retroactive items, payments of various welfare benefits, payroll taxes paid by employers, and earnings for those employees not covered under the production-worker, construction worker, or nonsupervisoryemployee definitions.

Gross average weekly earnings are derived by multiplying average weekly hours by average hourly earnings. Therefore, weekly earnings are affected not only by changes in gross average hourly earnings, but also by changes in the length of the workweek, part-time work, stoppages for varying causes, labor turnover, and absenteeism,

Average Weekly Hours

The workweek information relates to the average hours for which pay was received, and is different from standard or scheduled hours. Such factors as absenteeism, labor turnover, part-time work, and stoppages cause average weekly hours to be lower than scheduled hours of work for an establishment. Group averages further reflect changes in the workweek of component industries. Average Overtime Hours

The overtime hours represent that portion of the gross average weekly hours which were in excess of regular hours and for which overtime premiums were paid. If an employee worked on a paid holiday at regular rates, receiving as total compensation his holiday pay plus straight-time pay for hours worked that day, no overtime hours would be reported.

Since overtime hours are premium hours by definition, gross weekly hours and overtime hours do not necessarily move in the same direction, from month-tomonth; for example, overtime premiums may be paid for hours in excess of the straight-time workday although less than a full week is worked. Diverse trends at the industry-group level also may be caused by a marked change in gross hours for a component industry where little or no overtime was worked in both the previous and current months. In addition, such factors as stoppages, absenteeism, and labor turnover may not have the same influence on overtime hours as on gross hours.

Hours and Earnings For Total Private Nonagricultural Industries

This series covers all nonagricultural industry divisions except government. The principal source of payroll data is Form BLS 790. Secondary source material such as Employment and Wages (Bureau of Employment Security), County Business Patterns (Bureau of the Census), and additional supporting information such as The Hospital Guide, Part II, of the American Hospital Association and special studies by the National Council of Churches, supplement data for certain industry groups within the service division.

For a technical description of this series, see the article, "Hours and Earnings for Workers in Private Nonagricultural Industries," published in the May 1967

issue of Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor Force.

Railroad Hours and Earnings

The figures for class I railroads (excluding switching and terminal companies) are based on monthly data summarized in the M-300 report of the Interstate Commerce Commission and relate to all employees except executives, officials, and staff assistants (ICC group I) who received pay during the month. Gross average hourly earnings are computed by dividing total compensation by total hours paid for. Average weekly hours are obtained by dividing the total number of hours paid for reduced to a weekly basis, by the number of employees, as defined above, Gross average weekly earnings are derived by multiplying average weekly hours by average hourly earnings.

Spendable Average Weekly Earnings

are

Spendable average weekly earnings in current dollars obtained by deducting estimated Federal social security and income taxes from gross weekly earnings. The amount of income tax liability depends on the number of dependents supported by the worker and his marital status, as well as on the level of his gross income. To reflect these variables, spendable earnings are computed for a worker with no dependents, and a married worker with three dependents. The computations are based on the gross average weekly earnings for all production or nonsupervisory workers in the industry division without regard to total family income.

"Real" earnings are computed by dividing the current Consumer Price Index into the earnings averages for the current month. The level of earnings is thus adjusted for changes in purchasing power since the base period (1957-59).

Average Hourly Earnings Excluding Overtime

Average hourly earnings excluding overtime premium pay are computed by dividing the total productionworker payroll for the industry group by the sum of total production-worker man-hours and one-half of total overtime man-hours. Prior to January 1956, these data were based on the application of adjustment factors to gross average hourly earnings (as described in the Monthly Labor Review, May 1950, pp. 537-540). Both methods eliminate only the earnings due to overtime paid for at 1 times the straight-time rates. No adjustment is made for other premium payment provisions, such as holiday work, late-shift work, and overtime rates other than time and one-half.

Indexes of Aggregate Weekly Payrolls and Man-Hours

The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls and manhours are prepared by dividing the current month's aggregate by the monthly average for the 1957-59 period. The man-hour aggregates are the product of average weekly hours and production-worker employment, and the payroll aggregates are the product of gross average weekly earnings and production-worker employment.

Labor turnover is the gross movement of wage and salary workers into and out of employed status with respect to individual establishments. This movement, which relates to a calendar month, is divided into two broad types: Accessions (new hires and rehires) and separations (terminations of employment initiated by either employer or employee). Each type of action is cumulated for a calendar month and expressed as a rate per 100 employees. The data relate to all employees, whether full- or part-time, permanent or temporary, including executive, office, sales, other salaried personnel, and production workers. Transfers to another establishment of the company are included, beginning with January 1959.

Accessions are the total number of permanent and temporary additions to the employment roll, including both new and rehired employees.

New hires are temporary or permanent additions to the employment roll of persons who have never before been employed in the establishment (except employees transferring from another establishment of the same company) or of former employees not recalled by the employer.

Other accessions, which are not published separately but are included in total accessions, are all additions to the employment roll which are not classified as new hires, including transfers from another establishment of the company.

Separations are terminations of employment during the calendar month and are classified according to cause: Quits, layoffs, and other separations, are defined as follows:

Quits are terminations of employment initiated by employees, failure to report after being hired, and unauthorized absences, if on the last day of the month the person has been absent more than 7 consecutive calendar days.

Layoffs are suspensions without pay lasting or expected to last more than 7 consecutive calendar days, initiated by the employer without prejudice to the worker.

Other separations, which are not published separately but are included in total separations, are terminations of employment because of discharge, permanent disability, death, retirement, transfers to another establishment of the company, and entrance into the Armed Forces for a period expected to last more than 30 consecutive calendar days.

Comparability With Employment Series

Month-to-month changes in total employment in manufacturing industries reflected by labor turnover rates are not comparable with the changes shown in the Bureau's employment series for the following reasons: (1) Accessions and separations are computed for the entire calendar month; the employment reports refer to the pay period which includes the 12th of the month; and (2) employees on strike are not counted as turnover actions although such employees are excluded from the employment estimates if the work stoppage extends through the report period.

The principal features of the procedure used to estimate employment for the industry statistics are (1) the use of the "link relative" technique, which is a form of ratio estimation, (2) periodic adjustment of employment levels to new benchmarks, and (3) the use of size and regional stratification.

The "Link Relative" Technique

From a sample composed of establishments reporting for both the previous and current months, the ratio of current month employment to that of the previous month is computed. This is called a link relative. The estimates of employment (all employees, including production and nonproduction workers together) for the current month are obtained by multiplying the estimates for the previous month by these "link relatives." Other features of the general procedures are described later in the table, Summary of Methods for Computing Industry Statistics on Employment, Hours, Earnings, and Labor Turnover. Further details are given in the technical notes on Measurement of Employment, Hours, and Earnings in Nonagricultural Industries and on Measurement of Labor Turnover, which are available upon request.

Size and Regional Stratification

A number of industries are stratified by size of establishment and/or by region, and the stratified production- or nonsupervisory-worker data are used to weight the hours and earnings into broader industry groupings. Accordingly, the basic estimating cell for an employment, hours, or earnings series, as the term is used in the summary of computational methods may be a whole industry or a size stratum, a region stratum, or a size stratum of a region within an industry. Benchmark Adjustments

Employment estimates are compared periodically with comprehensive counts of employment which provide "benchmarks" for the various nonagricultural industries, and appropriate adjustments are made as indicated. The industry estimates are currently projected from March 1966 levels. Normally, benchmark adjustments are made annually.

The primary source of benchmark information is the employment data, by industry, compiled quarterly by State agencies from reports of establishments covered under State unemployment insurance laws. These tabulations, covering three-fourths of the total nonfarm employment in the United States, are prepared under the direction of the Bureau of Employment Security. Benchmark data for the residual are obtained from the records of the Social Security Administration, the Interstate Commerce Commission, and a number of other agencies in private industry or government.

The estimates relating to the benchmark month are compared with new benchmark levels, industry by industry. If revisions are necessary, the monthly series of estimates are adjusted between the new benchmark and the preceding one, and the new benchmark for each industry then is carried forward progressively to the current month by use of the sample trends. Thus, under

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