On the Prices and Fluctuations of Grain in Prussia and Engiand, from 1816 to 1841. By RAWSON W. RAWSON, Esq., Hon. Sec.

[Read before the Statistical Society of London, 21st March, 1842.]

I HAD the opportunity of bringing before the Society, in the first volume of the Journal, a series of tables showing the prices of the principal kinds of grain in Prussia during each year from 1816 to 1837, together with some interesting results drawn from those tables by M. Dieterici, our distinguished foreign Member, which had appeared in the Prussian State-Gazette.' I am now enabled, through the kindness and promptitude of the same gentleman, to complete that series up to the close of the year 1841; and as the interest of these tables has greatly increased since the period at which they were first published, I have converted the Prussian measure and prices into their equivalents according to the English standards,* and have appended the prices of the same kinds of grain in England, with the view of offering a few observations upon the comparative prices in the two countries.

the

It must be premised that there is a difference in the mode of taking the averages in the two kingdoms. In England the averages are calculated weekly upon the total quantities sold and their total sale amount in the 150 towns from which returns are obtained; and thus the element of quantity has its due weight in forming the average. But in Prussia the quantity is not taken into account, and the prices given for that country are the mean of monthly averages furnished by the local authorities in a number of towns possessing considerable corn-markets. Hence an extreme price in the smallest market quoted has as much influence on the average as the price of the largest; or to illustrate the case, price in a market in which 50 quarters are sold at 50s., will have as much weight in framing the average as a town with a sale of 5,000 quarters at 60s. This is clearly a great defect: a true average can only be furnished when the quantity sold, as well as the price at which it is sold, is taken into account: but it does not appear that this circumstance is likely to affect materially the deductions I shall attempt to draw from these tables; for it may be confidently asserted that in tables thus arranged occasional errors will balance one another, and with regard to a comparison of the price in the different provinces, the uniformity of the method applied to all will prevent any considerable discrepancy from this source.

The prices recorded in Prussia relate to wheat, rye, barley, and oats, and are shown separately for each of the provinces of that kingdom, except Brandenburg and Pomerania, which, on account of the similarity of their agricultural economy, are here united together. I shall commence by showing the differences of price in the several provinces; and in order to bring into view the local circumstances which are likely to have an influence in creating these differences, I shall give a brief sketch of the economical position of each province.

Prussia Proper, divided into East and West Prussia, is the largest

* A Prussian scheffel = 1·504, or 11⁄2 of an imperial bushel, and therefore 5 Prussian scheffels: = 1 imperial quarter. The average rate of exchange at Dantzic upon London, from 1816 to 1838, was Sgr. 2031 per £ sterling.

province in the total area. Its extent is 24,927 square miles, or more than one-fifth of the monarchy. It is the most northerly of the Prussian provinces, and extends from the frontier of Russia, having the Baltic for its northern boundary, to the westward of the Gulf of Dantzic. The surface of the country is almost one unbroken level; sandy plains extending along the sea-shore: the soil is generally fruitful, and adapted to the growth of wheat. The population is not dense, being 83 to a square mile: the proportion of the town to rural population is 1 to 3. Agriculture is almost the sole employment of the inhabitants, with the exception of the most common domestic manufactures for their own use, carried on in their private dwellings during the intervals of out-door employment, or by the unemployed members of the families. An active trade is carried on in the seaports, but no manufactures of any consequence exist there. Rye-bread is the staple food of the inhabitants: wheaten bread is seldom used. In many parts of the province potatoes are largely consumed. Wheat is one of the chief articles of export. From Dantzic alone there were exported annually, on the average of the five years 1836-40, 363,000 quarters of wheat, and 54,000 barrels of flour, besides 123,000 quarters of other grain: but a large proportion of this— two-thirds, according to Mr. Meek-appears to be brought from Poland.

Posen is an inland province, bounded on the east by Poland, on the north by West Prussia, on the west by Brandenburg, and on the south by Silesia. Its extent is 11,352 square miles; its population 98 to the square mile. The proportion of town to rural population is 1 to 31. The soil is generally very fruitful, and much wheat is cultivated, chiefly for exportation. Some trifling woollen manufactures are carried on in the small towns, but these are decaying; while agriculture, on the contrary, is rapidly advancing.

Pomerania extends from the boundary of Prussia Proper, along the shores of the Baltic, westward to the frontier of Mecklenburg. Its area is 12,000 square miles, with 63 inhabitants to each mile. The proportion of town to rural population is 1 to 4. The province is essentially agricultural; it produces much corn, but more rye than wheat, although the latter plant flourishes here, and there is a surplus cultivated for exportation. The quantity of wheat shipped at Stettin, the chief port of the province, during the five years 1836-40, averaged 138,000 quarters annually: in 1840 alone the export was 426,300 quarters, but of this a large portion doubtless was brought from Posen and Silesia. The peasantry live upon rye-bread; they consume also a considerable quantity of potatoes, which are more extensively cultivated here than in Prussia Proper.

The three provinces of Prussia Proper, Posen, and Pomerania, with the Mark of Brandenburg, forming one half of the area of the kingdom, and containing about one-third of the population; may be considered as one vast plain, yielding a large surplus of agricultural produce for exportation. As about one-fourth of the total quantity of wheat produced in Prussia is exported, and as almost the whole of that produced in the other provinces is retained by them for their own consumption, it follows that considerably more than the fourth part of that grown in the above three provinces is exported.

In these tables Brandenburg has been united with Pomerania, on account of the general resemblance of the agricultural productions of

VOL. V.PART I.

D

the two provinces, as well as their local affinity, although there are other circumstances which, as far at least as the price of grain is concerned, would seem to require that it should be separated. Brandenburg is an inland province, lying south of Pomerania, north of Silesia, with Posen on the east, and Saxony on the west. It contains 15,467 square miles, with a population of 107 to each mile. If, however, Berlin, which contains 275,000 inhabitants, be excluded, the proportion will be 87 to the square mile. The proportion of town to rural population is 10 to 14 including Berlin, and 10 to 22 excluding that city. Thus it will be seen that in Brandenburg a much larger proportion of the inhabitants dwell in the towns than in the preceding three provinces, in which the urban population was as 1 to 3 and 4. Another great difference exists with regard to the employment of the inhabitants. In this province manufactures are carried on to a large extent, and create great activity both of internal communication and foreign commerce. Among the principal manufactures of the province are those of woollens at Luckenwalde, Luckau, Brandenburg, Kottbus, Züllichau, &c.; of cottons, at Berlin, Potsdam; of silk goods at the same, with Gleissen, &c.; of leather at the same, with Brandenburg and Frankfort; of refineries of sugar at the same, with Frankfort; of iron and steel at Berlin and Neustadt-Eberswalde; of hardwares, porcelain, paper, &c. at Berlin. The following comparison of the extent of manufactures carried on in Brandenburg, the three provinces of Prussia Proper, Posen, and Pomerania, and the whole kingdom, in 1837, will show this still more clearly:

The Oder and Elbe, with their tributaries, intersect the province, and afford great facilities to commerce. On the banks of these rivers, and in some other parts, there are fertile districts; but in general the soil is sandy, and not very favourable to cultivation. Corn is not grown for exportation; on the contrary, there is a considerable importation, but chiefly for the supply of Berlin.

Silesia is the most southerly of the eastern provinces, bounded on the north by Posen, on the east by Poland, south by Moravia, and west by Bohemia and the kingdom of Saxony. It is intersected throughout its whole length of 230 miles by the Oder, the breadth of the province not exceeding 73 miles. Its area is 15,695 square miles. The population is much denser than in the preceding provinces, being 160 to the square