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This second amendment has been taken up with the Director of the Budget, and he has stated that he has no objection to inserting it in this bill. I can have that in writing, in the form of a letter from the Director of the Budget. I would like to ask your consideration of this amendment to section 5: At the end of the first sentence in line 12, add a comma after the word “inventory”, and then add the words, “and make available to the Secretary of Labor not to exceed $25,000 for the printing of reports collected and now being compiled, on the trial census of unemployment at Bridgeport, Conn.; Lancaster, Pa., and Springfield, Ohio; the survey of employment and pay rolls, and the survey of retail prices.” The CHAIRMAN. Does that cover all of your proposed amendments? Dr. LUBIN. Yes, sir. Mr. DUNN. In other words, the Labor Department wants $25,000 to pay for this work that is now being done. Dr. LUBIN. To publish it. The work has been done and this is to make it available to the public. The CHAIRMAN. Is there anything further you care to adds? Dr. LUBIN. No, sir; but I would be glad to answer any questions. The CHAIRMAN. Those three surveys made in Bridgeport, Conn.; Lancaster, Pa., and Springfield, Ohio, were of industrial centers. Dr. LUBIN. Yes, sir. The CHAIRMAN. What was the primary purpose of those surveys, insofar as they related to unemployment? Dr. LUBIN. There were three purposes, really: First, it was to find out, or test out, the various types of schedules that could be used in a census of unemployment. In other words, there was a great deal of discussion yesterday as to what the Census Bureau would ask and what they would find out, and it was stated that certain types of information could not be found out. Dr. Truesdell said that the only thing you could be sure about was the question of sex, and you cannot always be sure about that. We have attempted by these schedules to test out the various types of information, and to see what is the best type of question to bring out the best type of answer or information for our purpose. The second purpose was to use the figures that we collected in testing out sample methods of estimating unemployment. In other words, let us assume that in the city of Bridgeport, Conn., there are 15,000 unemployed. We found that out by covering virtually every house in the city. Now, is there any way of finding out how many unemployed there are without going to that expense again? For that purpose, we take samples, and try to find out if there are any methods that will give us the true picture of the city as a whole. In other words, it is an experimental venture. By making sample tests in a town, taking samples of 15,000, 5,000, 4,000, or 3,000, we can finally get what we believe is an accurate picture of the city as a whole. It will make it possible for our people in other years to go to those cities and get a pretty good picture of what the unemployment situation is, and to check up on our estimates. As you no doubt know, in January 1931, such a sample census was made of certain industrial cities, and based on the results in those cities, estimates were made for the country as a whole by the United States Department of Commerce. Our second purpose, therefore, in making these surveys was to find out whether there are ways of making these estimates, and the only way you can determine whether your estimates are worth anything is to check them up by the actual census figures that you already have. The third purpose was to get the same sort of picture or the extent of unemployment in three cities that were entirely different; Bridgeport, Conn., being a city primarily manufacturing heavy goods, such as machinery; Springfield, Ohio, being partially agricultural, or, in a sense, depending upon the surrounding agricultural country, and having a different type of industries from those at Bridgeport; and Lancaster, Pa., being entirely different from the other three. We wanted to get a picture of those three entirely different communities. Mr. KINZER. In what respect is it different? Doctor LUBIN. Will you permit Mr. Persons to answer that? Mr. PERSONs. Lancaster, Pa., has silk goods and a cigar-making industry. There is a tobacco industry there. Mr. KINZER. What do you mean by a tobacco industry? Mr. PERSONs. It is a tobacco center, and there is a cigar industry there, which is heavily affected by technological changes. Mr. KINZER. Do you say that Lancaster is a big cigar-making center? - Mr. PERSONs. We were interested in that among other things in the investigation there. Mr. KINZER. I live there. That is my home. We do raise tobacco, and make cigars. Dr. LUBIN. Are not a large number of people living in Lancaster employed in those cigar factories? Mr. KINZER. Yes; we have cigar factories and tobacco-packing houses in Lancaster County, and there is a tobacco producing industry there: Dr. LUBIN. Our purpose was to get as great a variety of industries as we possibly could. Your silk mills and other industries around Lancaster are entirely different from those at Bridgeport, and are different from those at Springfield, Ohio. Mr. FLETCHER. Would that be a sample test for the cigar-making industry, in view of the conditions surrounding the manufacture of cigars in the South, which are very different from the conditions at Lancaster? Dr. LUBIN. No, sir; our purpose, as I have said, was to find out how the unemployment situation affected certain types of industry, and it was intended to cover cities which had different types of industry. Therefore, we went through various cities of the country to find out what industries prevailed, and we tried to get three as entirely different from each other as we possibly could. Mr. KINZER. Were you ascertaining average conditions that would enable you to make predictions concerning conditions elsewhere? Dr. LUBIN. No, sir. In a city like Bridgeport, we have a heavy type of manufactures, and in Springfield, Ohio, you have a different type. The census of unemployment enables us to find out whether, or not, the conditions that we disclose are typical. It will show the condition where there is a variety of industries, as compared with a city with one type. Mr. KINZER. May I ask what was the cost of your census in Lancaster?
Mr. PERsons. I have the rough figures. It was something like $64,000 or $65,000 for the three cities. Somewhat less than one third was used in Lancaster, because it is smaller. I should say the cost of the Lancaster census was $15,000. Mr. KINZER. How long have the results of that census been available in your office? Mr. PERSONs. We have the schedules now, and they are being Pod and tabulated. Those returns will be available within a few WeekS. Mr. KINZER. That is a tobacco-raising center. Eighty percent of the tobacco grown in the State of Pennsylvania is grown within a radius of 30 miles of Lancaster. However, many cigars are made over in York County, across the river, in Mr. Haines' district. Mr. ColMER. In the Southern States the conditions would not be similar to those. Mr. PERSONs. As a matter of fact, we considered the South very carefully. - Mr. ColMER. But those three cities are not at all like any southern cities. Mr. PERSONs. We considered conditions in Texas. We have various people go over the industrial situation, including some people from Texas. We also considered Alabama, and certain parts of North Carolina. - Mr. FLETCHER. Winston-Salem, for instance. Mr. PERSONs. There you have one industry, the cigarette-manufacturing industry, dominating the life of the whole community. Mr. KINZER. How will you use this data in your Department, and how will it be useful to you in increasing employment? Dr. LUBIN. Concretely, Secretary Ickes asks for certain information. He has requests, we will say, for 1,000 projects, and he has money enough to take care of only 200 of them. He asked that question last December. He asked us where he should spend that money, and it was our job to find out where the unemployment was. Mr. KINZER. Do you have means for finding that out? Dr. LUBIN. We cannot find that ourselves. We cannot tell him that 25 percent of the workers in Atlanta are unemployed, or that 50 percent of the people of Memphis are unemployed. We do not know, and nobody knows that. Mr. FLETCHER. Can you ascertain that locally? Dr. LUBIN. We take the matter up with the local service agencies and ask them if they know how many are unemployed. But they do not know, except occasionally where a city has kept adequate records; but that is rarely the case. The labor unions have some figures. They sometimes can tell you how many members of the union are affected. Mr. KINZER. Did I understand you to say that in the construction of a bridge at San Francisco, there was not sufficient labor to meet the demand? Dr. LUBIN. The contractor claimed that. Mr. KINZER. What was the result of your investigation? Dr. LUBIN. We had a case of that sort and we actually sent a man out to San Francisco to investigate it. Mr. KINZER. What were the facts?
Dr. LUBIN. It was not the fact, and, consequently, we did not permit him to extend the hours beyond 30. Mr. FLETCHER. What was the motive in claiming that, in view of the overcrowded labor market? Dr. LUBIN. I think that in this case the question was that the contractor did not want, if it were possible to avoid it, to take on any new men. I think he would rather give the men he had more employment. It is a lot easier to increase the hours than to put on extra men. Putting on extra men would involve extra work and extra expense. Mr. FLETCHER. This survey would be valuable from the standpoint of the N.I.R.A. Dr. LUBIN. Yes, sir. Mr. DUNN. The place you sent the investigation, how many hours a day did the men work? Dr. LUBIN. The men were working 6 hours and 5 days a week. We are meeting that situation every day in our work. We have told contractors to put on two 6-hour shifts in the summer season. Of course, there is involved the question of keeping the pay rolls and providing extra office help. You add some burden in that way, but we have not in any case ever permitted an extension of hours beyond 30, unless there is an emergency situation requiring it. We have said in every instance that we must abide by the law, and it was not the intention of Congress that any exception should be made, except in emergency. Mr. KINZER. As I understand you, your thought is, and you want the committee to understand, that your efforts in those three instances were not successful, or that the results have not been satisfactory, and that, therefore, you want a census taken in accordance with the provisions of this bill. Dr. LUBIN. No, sir; not at all. It is because of those three censuses that we feel it is essential to get a census more national in scope. Mr. KINZER. When was the census taken at Lancaster? Dr. LUBIN. We started about the middle of January last. Mr. PERSONs. We started that last January. Mr. KINZER. When will you finish the compilation of that census? Mr. PERSONs. In about 2 weeks. We began about the last day of January, and continued it in February and March. We finished the enumeration in March. Mr. KINZER. My reason for asking that question was to ascertain if you have any idea of how long it will require to finish with this proposed census, or how long it will be before the data will be available. Dr. LUBIN. I think Mr. Austin can answer that better than I can. Frankly, we have never taken a census on a national scale. That is a huge job; but from the testimony I listened to here yesterday, I understand that it is proposed to do the enumeration work as rapidly as possible, and then to start with the tabulation immediately. I do not know how long it will take, but I should say that the first preliminary figures should be had probably within 4 weeks after the initial enumeration is completed. Mr. KINZER. After securing that information, do you have any idea that there would be any less shifting of the population? Dr. LUBIN. We measured that shifting each month by the employment index. For example, we get a report from the steel industry, and we know where those plants are. We get a report from them that employment has increased 4 percent in a given month. That may mean taking on 10,000 more workers. We know that there were so many people unemployed at the beginning of the month, and by deducting 10,000 from the total we shall know the number unemployed it the end of the month. Mr. KINZER. Do you think that such a census as this will result in an increase of employment? Dr. LUBIN. This census is essential in the sense that it will give us data showing where the weak spots are, and where we should concentrate our attack on the problem. Mr. FLETCHER. Is there any department of the Government making any surveys to anticipate the substitution of labor-saving machinery for men, so they can predict in advance what may be necessary? Dr. LUBIN. No, sir; but you will get some picture of that through this proposed census. We have that problem coming before us all the time. Codes are being formulated by the N.R.A. In doing that, the N.R.A. can figure on how many people were employed in a given industry in 1929. They know how many are employed in the industry now, but they do not know how many of the unemployed should be employed in that industry, or how many the industry should assume responsibility for under its code. Unless you know how many should be employed in that industry, how can you fix your hours of employment in such a way as to absorb them? There is no way of telling right now how many people associated with any industry, or people of any given occupation, are unemployed. We know how many are employed, but we do not know how many are unemployed. Mr. FLETCHER. They have invented a machine for picking cotton that seems to be very effective, and large manufacturers with whom I have discussed the matter say that this machine will do the work of thousands of cotton pickers. Would it be possible through this survey, or through any survey with which you are familiar, to anticipate an employment dislocation resulting from the use of the cottonpicking machine? Dr. LUBIN. We are dealing with that problem every day. We have made studies of the productivity of labor. We hope to make such a study of labor productivity in the rayon industry, in cooperation with rayon manufacturers. We are going to do that to see what has been hppening in that field. Mr. FLETCHER. That is, labor productivity in the rayon industry? Dr. LUBIN. Yes, sir; in the actual making of rayon. Mr. FLETCHER. And you think this statistical information will enable you to administer the affairs of your Bureau in such a way as to anticipate those things in advance. Dr. LUBIN. We are hoping that the results of the special studies that we are making will give us such a picture of the situation as will enable the Employment Service to know whether to say to people seeking employment in that industry, “You had better look somewhere else, because you cannot reasonably expect employment in that industry.” We are doing that all the time. We have made similar studies in the rubber-tire industry and in the glass industry. We are doing more of that work all the time.