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use of the information and the experience gained in connection with a census of population, which would include a census of the unemployed. A census of unemployment cannot be taken independently, but must be a part of a general census of population. A somewhat analogous relation exists between the census of agriculture and the census of population. This is responsible for the desire of the United States Department of Agriculture for a census of population in conjunction with the census of agriculture, in order to secure greater accuracy for the latter, and greater usefulness for its results. I am sure that many other advantages to your Department will occur to you and to your associates. A census of population may be regarded as basic to any inventory of the social welfare of the American people, and is essential to special studies of the types customarily made by the children's bureau, the women's bureau, and other agencies of the Department of Labor. I have been assured by Mr. Frank W. Persons, Director of the United States Employment Service, that an enumeration of population would be of great value to the work of his organization. Many uses for population data are found by private organizations of a social or welfare type, and by business concerns which employ these data in planning their developmental and sales programs. Outstanding illustrations of the latter are found in the field of public utilities. Such Federal activities as N.R.A. and A.A.A. are particularly related to the distribution of population, since the urban markets for agricultural products and the rural markets for industrial products depend upon the distribution of population between urban and rural classes. The social planning represented by the Subsistence Homesteads Division, and the Mississippi Valley Commission of your Department, the Tennessee Valley Authority, the proposed purchase of marginal lands to take them out of cultivation, etc., depend even more obviously upon accurate information respecting population. The date of the proposed census will be determined by the date of the census of agriculture, since the two should be related parts of a single inquiry. The date of the latter is now stipulated in the Fifteenth Census Act as January 1, 1935. It is the opinion of the Bureau and of the Department of Agriculture that the date should be changed to November 15, 1934, in order that reports may be received at the close of the crop year, prior to the removal of a large number of tenents to new farms. Since there is no legal authorization for the population enumeration, congressional authorization will be required and an appropriation by Congress. There is no item in the Budget now before Congress for the proposal. Any bill or bills, introduced on the matter should presumably have the approval of the Secretary of Commerce, under whose direction the census would be taken. It seems probable, further, that the Secretary, if he should himself approve the proposal, might wish to have administrative support before recommending it to Congress. I trust that this will give you the information which you asked me to supply. STUART A. RICE, Assistant Director.
Dr. RICE. This [submitting paper] is a rather condensed excerpt from the memorandum to which I referred, which includes a condensed statement of a number of opinions expressed in the letters written by the persons whose names were submitted to you in that list.
Mr. KINZER. You have inserted the list of 97 names.
Dr. RICE. Yes, sir. Some of those letters are summarized, or excerpted from, in this statement, which I will hand to the reporter.
The CHAIRMAN. Then the record will contain the names of the writers and, also, a summary of their views with reference to this proposal.
Dr. RICE. Yes, sir.
(The matter referred to is as follows:)
EXCERPTS FROM A MEMORANDUM FOR THE SECRETARY OF COMMERCE SUBMITTED BY THE DIRECTOR OF THE CENSUS, JUNE 23, 1933
I. A QUINQUENNIAL CENsus Is NEEDED To REveAL AND MEAsurE THE UNUsual PopULATION SHIFTs AND CHANGES THAT ARE Now TAKING PLACE
Since the census of 1930 was taken there have been extensive and unusual movements of population from city to country, directly reversing the former trend to city; and within large metropolitan areas there has been a movement from congested centers to suburbs or to outlying districts. There has been what amounts to almost a depletion of certain industrial areas accompanied by a corresponding influx into farm and rural districts. A census is needed to show the scale of these shifts of population and the regions and types of population affected. A census will show where and to what extent population has increased and where and to what extent it has decreased. It will show the shifts of population by sections of the country as the result of interstate migration—the movement north and south or east and west, the shift between industrial sections and agricultural. Fundamental changes are taking place as the result of restricted immigration and a declining birth rate; and a census will show what the effect has been upon the growth and composition of the population. A census will show the changes taking place in the age composition of the population and in the numbers and relative importance of the various race and nativity classes—the native whites, the foreign-born, the Negroes, the Mexicans, and others. A census will furnish quantitative information about the people who have returned to agricultural and rural areas because of unemployment in urban centers. This movement of population is having a profound influence on both the supply of and the demand for the products of the farm. The striking changes that have occurred since 1929 have had the effect of largely impairing the value of the 1930 census from the standpoint of business. A new statistical picture of this country is needed as soon as conditions begin to grow better; and 1935 would probably be an ideal year for such a survey.
EXTRACTS FROM LETTERS
“Among the great shifts in population in the last 3 years, for instance, has been what amounts almost to a depletion of certain industrial centers, accompanied by a corresponding influx in the farm and rural districts.”—Dr. David C. Adie, Commissioner, New York State Department of Social Welfare, 80 Centre Street, New York City. “A combined population and agricultural census would be of the utmost value because: (1) It would show the scale of the recent shifts of population from city to country, (2) the regions and types of population affected, (3) the possibly increased security and welfare of those involved in the shift, and (4) the extent to which and the places where a continuance of the shift may be thought desirable.”—Isaiah Bowman, Director, American Geographical Society, Broadway at One hundred and Fifty-sixth Street, New York City. “Since the Fifteenth Census on April 1, 1930, extensive and unusual movements of population have taken place from city to country, reversing the former trend to the city; within large cities from congested centers to the suburbs. Marked changes in the rates of population increase have occurred by reason of the cessation of immigration and the decline of the birth rate. Therefore, estimates for post-census years, useful for the computation of rates for births, deaths, sickness and for per capita figures, are very unreliable.”—Dr. Robert E. Chaddock, Columbia University, New York City. “In a recent study of factors in the insolvency of business concerns, it was found that in Chicago unemployment and consumer population migration were important elements. In one retail trade area we discovered that changes in the race of consumers completely eliminated the possibility of the success of merchants who had been at their present locations for many years.”—Dr. John H. Cover, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Ill. “It is important that quantitative information be secured about the people who have returned to agricultural pursuits and rural areas as the result of their unemployment in urban areas.”—Dr. Z. C. Dickinson, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. “It is a matter of general knowledge for example that there has been a population shift toward the farm and rural settlement, and that the numbers and composition of many industrial cities have undergone Fono changes of which wedo not even have approximate information.”—Dr. R. L. Gillett, President,. Albany District Organization, A.S.A., Albany—, N.Y. “Momentous changes have taken place in the population of the United States both from the reduced immigration and the decline in the birthrate. It would be very desirable to know what the growth of the population has been since the last census under present conditions and, more especially, the allocation of the population in the rural and urban areas in view of the great movement back to: the country.”—Dr. Louis I. Dublin, Metropolitan Life Insurance Co., New York City. “An enumeration of the i. midway between 1930 and 1940 is highly essential for an accurate knowledge of our economic life.”—Dr. Roland P. Falkner, National Industrial Conference Board, New York City. “Last December a group, of which I am chairman, composed of representative persons from all the larger cities of the country, was very much in favor of the Federal Government taking a mid-decennial census of population and agriculture. “We in Cleveland have probably used the 1930 census data to a greater extent than it has been used in any city in the United States. Col. Leonard P. Ayers in the foreword to my book, Population Characteristics by Census Tracts, Cleveland, Ohio, 1930, said, Cleveland has more information concerning the composition, the distribution, and the characteristics of its population than exsits. in any other city in the world. This is due to the fact that we have intelligently used the data made available by the Bureau of the Census.”—Howard W. Green, Cleveland Health Council, Cleveland, Ohio. “May I say that in my opinion it is very desirable that there be taken a middecennial census of population in 1934 and 1935. The unusual shifts in population which have taken place during the depression have seemed to render this course of action extremely important.”—Prof. Robert M. Haig, Columbia University, New York City. “The population changes that have occurred during the past 3 or 4 years have been rapid and in some respects the reverse of previous tendencies. The landward movement has been especially striking. So also the state of employment: The trends as regards the racial composition and color of our population are of immense interest and social importance and there is reason to believe that fairly rapid developments have been taking place.”—F. H. Hankins, Smith College, Northampton, Mass. “Shifts in population have been so rapid and extensive since the last census was taken in 1930 that the value of the 1930 census data as applied to existing conditions is considerably lessened. Information concerning the shift in population and the increase in unemployment since 1930 is in greater demand now than probably any other class of census information.”—William J. Maguire, Department of Labor and Industry, Harrisburg, Pa. “The strikingly changes that have occurred since 1929 have all had the effect of largely destroying the value of that census. From the standpoint of businesswe need a new statistical picture of this country as soon as conditions begin to row better—1935 would probably be an ideal year.”—Dr. Paul H. Nystrom, olumbia University, New York City. “The movement of population from the city to the country in the past 2 or 3 years is having a very profound influence upon both the supply of and the demand for the products of the farm, and from this standpoint an accurateaccount of the population and its location in 1934 or 1935 will be highly desirable.”—Dr. H. R. Tolley, University of California, Berkeley, Calif.
II. A QUINQUENNIAL CENsus Is NEEDED FOR INTELLIGENT PLANNING AND. RESEARCH IN BUSINESS AND IN PUBLIC AFFAIRs
In view of the rapid population changes and shifts that are taking place at the present time a population census midway between 1930 and 1940 is needed as a basis for planning in private business and public affairs. Reliable population figures are necessary in manufacturing, marketing, building, public health, -education, charities and relief work, unemployment, agriculture, transportation, taxation, and in almost every other field of industrial or Social activity. Unless there is a population census midway between the decennial censuses the data needful for these purposes will not be available for the latter half of the present decade. ExTRACTS FROM LETTERS
The population census was originally undertaken by constitutional mandate in order to apportion representatives in Congress among the States. It has grown steadily to its present proportions in response to genuine demands, for the most part business demands, for more information about the character and lives of our people. There are few types of economic or social activity which do not require population data as a factual basis for the determination of policy. Allow me to cite a few illustrations: “The advertising expenditures and marketing programs of national business enterprises are based upon studies of population distribution. The market, in every case, is a group of people, the number, location, and characteristics of which must be known if sales efforts are to be effective. This is evidenced by the work of national advertising agencies in defining trading areas and analyzing markets for various types of goods upon the basis of the population census. “The public demand for utilities like the telephone must be foreseen several years in advance in order to provide the necessary technical facilities, such as cables, buildings, and exchange equipment. This demand is a function of population growth. If census data are lacking or insufficient for estimates of population growth, inefficiency in planning and expenditure will result. “The construction industry is peculiarly dependent upon population data for forecasts of demand. Much of the tremendous and unfortunate over building of the hotel industry during the decade from 1920 to 1930 might have been avoided by a more critical employment of population data. On the other hand, the pattern of radio ownership in the United States since 1930 has probably been smoothed out to no small extent as the result of the attention given by the industry to the disclosures of the census of that year. “Progress in public health during recent decades has depended to no small degree upon the calculation of death rates, of birth rates, and of similar ratios evidencing vitality. Without specific knowledge of the incidence of diseases it is difficult not only to discover their causes but to know where to launch attacks upon them. “The administration of any national policy affecting the States and local communities, such as Federal grants for relief, can avoid inequities only by accurate information concerning the populations involved.”—Stuart A. Rice, president American Statistical Association, University of Chicago, Chicago, Ill. “As a member of the New York City Census Committee, and also as a member of the American Statistical Association, I have been in close touch with census problems for the past 15 years. Believing heartily as I do that intelligent planning, whether it be in the field of relief in which I am most immediately concerned, the field of business which is vastly more important, the field of agriculture which has many important problems, or any other field, is and must be based on accurate census data. I have, therefore, strongly felt the need for a mid decennial census in order to lay the foundation for adequate national and local planning and action. This was important before our present era of greatly accelerated changes. Because of these changes it is more important than ever that we revise our planning on the basis of more frequently determined periodical census facts.”— Baily B. Burritt, general director, Association for Improving the Condition of the Poor, 105 East Twenty-second Street, New York City. “At the present time and certainly for a considerable future it seems certain that there will be increasing emphasis on social and economic planning. Census data are therefore of great importance in that they provide the factual basis for such planning. It seems to me that this is the most important consideration underlying the proposal and justifying the plan for a mid-decennial census.”— Prof. F. Stuart Chapin, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minn. “I want to urge that it is of very vital importance to have at least an abbreviated population census at this time. There has long been a need for nonfarm population data at more frequent intervals than once in 10 years. In view of the disturbances of the depression, estimates are hazardous and the need of an interdecennial population census is now greatly increased. The development of an intelligent and adequate program to deal with our current problems requires accurate information as a basis. Employment information is especially important in this connection.”—Dr. Morris A. Copeland, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. “Three purposes that would be served by new information on population especially appeal to me: (1). The need of fuller information for planning agricultural and general rural policies; (2), elaboration of studies of the national income, including fuller analysis of industries and occupations; and (3) need for further information relating to employment and unemployment.”—Dr. Z. C. Dickinson, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Mich. “As members of the executive committee of the Albany Chapter of the American Statistical Association, interested in various studies and researches into social problems for the information and guidance of legislators, social workers, and the public generally, we have had occasion to gage the inadequacy of the results of the 1930 census as a basis for projecting social welfare and other activities in the rapidly changing conditions of the present crisis. “If the results of study and research are to guide public policy in agricultural and industrial planning as well as relief legislation, then surely such unprecedented social dynamics as we have witnessed since the last census not only justify but make necessary a special mid-decennial census of a scope limited only by the necessary considerations of economy. “Population figures are the basis for planning all public and private business, whether of a normal or relief nature, and we feel that the public interest will be well served by a compilation of current population facts.”—Dr. R. L. Gillett, resident, Albany District Organization, American Statistical Association, Albany,
“In this city, we are making an enormous use of the census materials. The Federal figures constitute the basis for numerous studies, and have enabled us to compile a body of data for an intelligent understanding of our city which would not be possible otherwise.”—Dr. Earl Eubank, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio. “Such a census has become increasingly imperative because of the tremendous economic and social changes that have taken place since the last census was taken, which should be recorded, not only that a permanent record may be had of the effects of these changes but to make available the basic data for the social and economic planning which we are bound to apply during the next few years.”— Dr. Emil Frankel, Department Institutions and Agencies, Trenton, N.J. “Almost none of our economic and social problems can be properly investigated without recent and accurate data such as are provided by the population census.”—Prof. Wilson Gee, The University of Viginia, University, Va. “In view of the fact that we are looking forward to an enormously increased amount of governmental planning, I can scarcely exaggerate when I say that we need every possible bit of information that could be acquired in order to give us a sound basis for estimates of needs and resources.”—Prof. C. E. Gehlke, Western Reserve University, Cleveland, Ohio. “The rate and speed of change is so great that a program of future planning such as faced by the present administration at Washington calls for more up-todate information than was needed a century ago. May I urge upon you the great importance of such a census, not only for the use of scholars but more especially for the practical value it will have in the guidance of industry.”—Dr. Alvin H. Hansen, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minn. “I believe that the data thus secured would be of genuine and important value in promoting the solution of the economic and social problems with which the Government as well as private agencies is now struggling.”—Prof. Hornell Hart, Bryn Mawr College, Bryn Mawr, Pa. “The census, as valuable and indispensable as it is, not only for general purposes but for use in the analysis of social factors and social change, could, it seems, add materially to its usefulness if the interval could be reduced by half. This must be evident to every student who has attempted to relate the 1930 figures to our present situation. The rate of change is so much greater now than when the interval was first established, it is in the interest of improved social knowledge and planning that the information should be better timed.”—Prof. Charles S. Johnson, Fisk University, Nashville, Tenn. (Colored leader.) “It is clearly evident that the economic readjustment we are now experiencing has made a great many features of the last census practically useless.”—Dr. Emlyn Jones, Department of Health, Harrisburg, Pa. “Such a census would make possible numerous studies of the population which would be very valuable indeed in the field of education. The decennial period is so long that many statistical studies become distorted because of lack of authentic