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We know that we have the problem, and we have been trying in various ways to do something with it, but unsuccessfully, on the whole, for the last 5 or 6 years. Mr. LEMKE. You are correct, and our trouble has been that we have not tackled the problem at the right end. You can not remedy the situation by borrowing more money, and that is all we have been doing, and all Congress has been doing. There is an end to it. Mr. GIVENs. I believe it is a many-sided problem, of which the needs to which you point are extremely important. But if we deal adequately with those phases we still would need better information than we have had hitherto. I believe it is fair to say, as one of the other witnesses who will follow me may emphasize more fully than I, that the present Administration has put certain procedures in operation which promise to give us a better coordination of our informational services, so that the information we have on the financial, industrial and employment side will link together more effectively for the purpose of a general attack upon some of these difficulties. Mr. KERR (acting chairman). We will now hear Mr. Roos. Will you state your name and occupation, Mr. Roose?
STATEMENT OF CHARLES F, ROOS, DIRECTOR OF RESEARCH, DIVISION OF RESEARCH AND PLANNING, NATIONAL RECOWERY ADMINISTRATION
Mr. Roos. Mr. Chairman, my name is Charles F. Roos; I am director of research of the division of research and planning of the N.R.A.. I appear at the request of Mr. Leon Henderson, who is the director of that division. The population statistics required by the N.R.A. research and planning division include, of course, the ordinary basic general population data such as we understand will be gathered in this census. The N.R.A. has asked the Census Bureau to tabulate the census of manufactures by machines, so that the N.R.A. can estimate the effects of codes in industry, according to size. It is of special interest to this organization that we get a clear cut picture of the occupational mobility of the gainfully employed persons in the country, especially for 1933 and 1934. There are a number of problems that bother us at the present time, such as, for example, the effect of the codes on particular industries and particular groups in industries. As I said to get some answer to these questions, we have recently asked the Census Bureau to machine tabulate the census of manufactures, and that will answer certain questions regarding pay rolls, employment, and other questions of that general type. In addition to these, there are questions regarding the mobility of Jabor; that is, the mobility of occupations. We have industries that come in to us and say, “Yes, we had so many attached to the industry in 1929, but a lot of them have died off; the industry has not been able to train others, and it requires so many months or years to train the skilled help we need in the industry.” We cannot answer such questions at present because we have insufficient information regarding such matters, and the only thing
we can do is to say, you are wrong, or accept the explanation. There is no way of checking claims. So, as I have said, it is of particular interest to our organization to get a clear-cut picture of the occupational mobility of the gainfully employed persons in the country, especially for the years 1933 and 1934. We are not so much interested in 1930. No. FLETCHER. When you say this organization, you mean the o Mr. Roos. That is right. In order to satisfy our needs it would seem essential that data be made available showing the occupational shifts between 1930 and 1933 and between 1933 and 1934. The latter shifts are particularly important in order to measure the effects of codes. The situation at the three dates are necessary to determine the incidence of unemployment in the industrial picture. This would tell also what sections of the industrial population require vocational retraining by industry. Thus some estimate of cost added by codes would be possible. Mr. FLETCHER. You have no information on that line now to aid you in estimating the cost of the codes? Mr. Roos. We cannot tell at all. We have no estimate of how many people it is necessary to train, and how many could be expected to be available for training. Mr. FLETCHER. Are you ignoring that or guessing at it? Mr. Roos. We have to guess; there is no other way to do it. Mr. FLETCHER. The information that would be gathered in this census would take care of that situation? Mr. Roos. Yes; it would allow us to estimate. It would not allow us to tell exactly, but it would allow us to make a very much closer estimate than now. Mr. LEMKE. In the last census we had information about our occupations and about what our training was. That was a few years ago. You have the same information? Mr. Roos. Yes; and what I said was that we now guess on the basis of that information. There has been a good deal of movement in population since 1930. The thing we are particularly interested in is, what was the situation in 1933 and 1934? Mr. FLETCHER. Since the codes have been put into effect. Mr. Roos. That is what we want. Mr. KERR. You are not contemplating taking a census of this kind every 2 or 3 years? Mr. Roos. No, sir; but this is an unusual time. Mr. KINZER. Would you expect the taking of this census would give you dependable information for future use? Mr. Roos. I should think it would. There is a definite movement toward the reabsorption of the unemployed now, and we can expect conditions to get better right along. I do not see any reason why there should not be gradual improvement. Mr. FLETCHER. How many wage earners are now outside the influence of the codes? Mr. Roos. If you will allow me to estimate, the number directly affected by the codes is between 23 and 24 million. Mr. FLETCHER. What percentage of the employable people would that cover? Mr. Roos. I think there are about 40 million people gainfully employed.
Mr. FLETCHER. Why would you not eventually have to make another statistical survey? Mr. Roos. If you will pardon me, perhaps I was saying what I did without going enough into detail. The N.R.A. Act expires next June. Your question, I take it is predicated on the belief that the act will be renewed. That matter, I believe, is not up for consideration at the present time. This explains why I made the particular answer given. Mr. Colm ER. In the event that the N.R.A. were not continued, then this information would be of very little value? Mr. Roos. No, I do not think so. The census information would help you to appraise the effects of the codes, and that would be of value at any time because it would guide you in your legislation. You, would know why you could not do this because it did not work out particularly well in an N.R.A. code. Mr. ColMER. Even so, if the codes were abandoned and you were etting this information to determine whether the codes worked or not, so the time you compiled all this information the codes would have been abandoned, if they are to be abandoned at the expiration of the act. Mr. Roos. No; you misunderstood me. I said this was necessary to give a complete picture for the appraisal of the N.R.A. We are working without information enough to tell us what certain effects are at present, and there are modifications being made, as the codes continue in effect. What I was getting at was that there are at least two questions. If the codes continue, then you need the census information for guidance in the future. If they do not, then you have the following other situation. You have in the codes a variety of laws that the Congress has considered at various times, as applying to shorter hours and increased pay, and price stabilization. I do not mean by that pricefixing, but rather the posting of prices. Then you have various fair-trade practices in the codes. You have a variety of legislation there that is experimental. It seems to me it would be a mistake not to appraise the experiments already undertaken and to attempt to measure some of the effects of them. There is also another question to be considered in connection with this census. There is considerable talk regarding unemployment reserves. I am not saying whether or not they are desirable, but I . saying there is talk regarding them, and we find it in relation to the COCIeS. We have labor which wants to write code provisions for unemployment reserves. I understand there are several bills being considered in Congress on the subject. Whether or not such legislation is desirable, there is talk concerning it. In my opinion, to bring these reserves as close as possible to an actuarial basis, detailed information concerning unemployment by industries and occupations, and shifts during a period of time is essential. That is to say, otherwise it would only be possible to make a stab in the dark, and to guess. There is a further reason why the N.R.A. is interested in this particular census. At present there are many conflicting interests in the United States with regard to decentralization of humanity and
industry. To weigh objectively the advantages and disadvantages of these divergent interests, census information of population and occupational mobility is basically necessary. Mr. Hamer, of our division, and I have talked with the Treasurer about the census, and he is very much interested in the decentralization problem. Mr. Julian is chairman of a committee of the Department of Commerce to study the problem, and he told us yesterday he would make a statement to this committee, saying that if it were not contemplated to get information for 1933 he would favor adding half a million dollars to get the information. Mr. FLETCHER. You say Mr. Julian will make a statement to the committee? Mr. Roos. Yes; and he will talk to Mr. Douglas and tell him what he had in mind a to the necessity for and use of this information. Mr. FLETCHER. According to my understanding, the N.R.A. is the brain child of the United States Chamber of Commerce. Has that oiation made any survey in line with what you are suggesting ere? Mr. Roos. I doubt it. Mr. FLETCHER. To get information such as the census survey will secure? Mr. Roos. I do not know, but I doubt it. Mr. FochT. I am very much interested in labor. Why did you wait this long a time before it occurred to you that there was a need of this information, a need to spend all this money all over this country and waste it? Mr. Roos. We did not— Mr. Focht (interposing). Well, it has been spent, and I cannot see much good they have done with it. This must have been in your mind long ago. We are supposed to have concluded this matter now. You are beginning at the end of the matter. Mr. Roos. The N.R.A. is very much interested in this census. Last November I talked to Mr. Rice about it. It has taken time to get the thing started. Mr. FochT. The people want to know what is going to be done. Mr. FLETCHER. The questions you have raised have been answered by various intelligent gentlemen before you arrived. Mr. FochT. I do not know of any more intelligent gentlemen than this one. My business is to support labor because I believe in it, not because I am paid for it. Mr. KINZER. May I ask, Mr. Roos, how long have you been associated with this research work? Mr. Roos. I think the date was July 27, last summer, when I started doing research work for the division. Mr. KINZER. What was your business prior to that? Mr. Ross. I was in London, England, on a Guggenheim Memorial Foundation fellowship. Prior to that, I was permanent secretary of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Mr. KINZER. I would like again to understand just whom you represent now, what division or bureau? Mr. Roos. The Division of Research and Planning of the N.R.A. (Thereupon, the committee adjourned to meet tomorrow, Thursday, May 3, 1934, at 10 a.m.)
CENSUS OF UNEMPLOYMENT, OCCUPATIONS, AGRICULTURE, AND POPULATION
THURSDAY, MAY 3, 1934
Hous E of REPRESENTATIVES,
The committee met at 10 a.m., Hon. Ralph F. Lozier (chairman) presiding.
The CHAIRMAN. The committee will come to order.
The first witness this morning is Mr. Copeland. Will you please give your name to the reporter and state your official position, and then make such statement in reference to the proposed legislation as you care to submit?
STATEMENT OF MORRIS A. COPELAND, EXECUTIVE SECRETARY CENTRAL STATISTICAL BOARD
Mr. CoPELAND. Mr. Chairman, my name is Morris A. Copeland; I am executive secretary of the Central Statistical Board. The board has given very careful thought to this proposal for a census this fall. There are several agencies of the Federal Government represented on the board which have a very special interest in the proposed taking of a census this fall. You have heard from representatives of several of those agencies, which include the Bureau of the Census, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Emergency Relief Administration, particularly. I think it is only fair to say that all of the other agencies represented on the board have some interest and will have very important uses for the census material, if the census is taken. It is one of the duties of the Central Statistical Board to endeavor to promote economy in the statistical services of the Federal Government, and to make certain that no needless questions are asked of individuals. For this reason, the board has tried to arrive at a very careful, balanced judgment as to whether this census is really needed, and it is the unanimous opinion of the board that there is a very, very important need for this census. I should like, if I may, Mr. Chairman, to read a resolution which was passed unanimously by the board at its meeting of March 8. This resolution has reference to Mr. Ellenbogen's second bill, but is pertinent here. It says: Resolved, That it is the considered opinion of this board, first, that there is an urgent need that a census of population, a census of occupations, employment and unemployment be taken concurrently with the United States Census of Agriculture. 115