Gambar halaman
PDF
ePub

25 per cent. Speaking roughly, the county seats left undisturbed
were held by the Gladstonians in 1892 by an average majority of
64 per cent., whilst the Unionists held theirs by some 58 only.
The last named rate, however, was obtained by that party in the
boroughs, also including London, but the Gladstonian majority,
owing possibly to the close contests in Sunderland and Sheffield,
was only 25 per cent. It is more to the purpose to point out
that these uncontested seats contain an electorate amounting in
the aggregate to over 1,320,000 votes, out of which 1,150,000
belonged to Unionist seats, and about 173,000 to the others. In
the south and west of the country, no less than 49 county seats
out of 64, scattered over 13 counties, were thus left uncontested.

34. The majorities have been considered hitherto in the aggre-
gate, or by county groups, which to some extent obscures the true
significance of the results. I shall now, therefore, classify them,
without regard to territorial considerations, into six main heads;
first, those of what we may hold to be of a casual character; then
the precarious, in two subdivisions, according to whether the
percentage of success is between 5 and 10, or between 10 and 25.
We have next, the average or safe majorities, of from 25 to
50 per cent., followed by the full and the abnormal figures, the
last named consisting of those in which 100 per cent. or more
was touched. The uncontested seats are added to complete the
total. The actual numbers will be found in Appendix D, and the
proportional reduction is given below:-

TABLE XXI.-Majorities Grouped by Percentage.

[blocks in formation]

1892. 1895. 1892. 1895. 1892. 1895. 1892. 1895. 1892. 1895.

[blocks in formation]

Total contested.... 93.6 65.8 88.9 81.4 Uncontested

91.3 73.5 89.768.0 93.4 89.7

6.4 34.2 11.1 18.6 8.7 26.5 10.3 32.0 6.6 10:3

35. Table XVII shows that, discounting the effect of the numerous unopposed returns in 1895, mainly on the Unionist side, the general average majority fluctuates within a short distance of 25 per cent. We may therefore take this proportion as an arbitrary dividing line. The percentage of seats with

majorities above and below it is shown below. In the former category the unopposed seats are bound to be included, since in 1895 they constituted a third of the county seats, and more than a quarter of the whole. Thus distributed, it appears that in 1892 the majority of the seats were held by less than the demarcating percentage. The county and the Unionist seats generally stood TABLE XXII.-Majorities Divided at 25 per Cent.

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small]

above the line, but the deficiency in the Gladstonian and borough majorities pulled down the totals. In 1895 the county and the Unionist seats again appear above the surface, and to a more marked degree; the borough figure also rose slightly, though the smaller majorities still predominate. The Gladstonian seats, on the whole, exhibit here the characteristic I have already pointed out in the preceding part of this paper.

36. The groups which suffer most in 1895 from the drain of the unopposed seats have been indicated before, so I need not enter into the results upon the distributiou as shown in Table XXI. Similarly, the totals given for the contested seats at the foot of Table XVII are merely supplemented by the information conveyed in Table XXI, which locates the result in the extremes of the Unionist seats, with a slight reinforcement of the majorities between 5 and 25 per cent. On the other side the falling off appears to have been general from 5 to 100 per cent., along with a certain amount of what I may call telescoping into the lowest group from those above. The general result of the interchange of seats between the groups of majorities, irrespective of change of parties, is shown in the first, or upper section of Appendix D, on which I do not propose to expend further comment, because the fluctuation of majorities seems to me to require more detailed treatment than mere quotation of the totals at each election.

37. In the first place, the groups used in that Appendix may be conveniently ignored when the general tendency of the variations within or without these artificial limits has to be appreciated. In the following table, accordingly, they should be taken merely as landmarks, and the headings denote any increase or diminution of the majority whatever without reference to them:

TABLE XXIII.-Variation in Majorities from 1892.

Results of the Election of 1895 on Majorities of 1892.

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small]

Uncontested

38

199

13

24

37 236 14

13

13

:}

107

92

(9)

(14) (23)

3

19 29

5

6 11

Grand Total.. 116

106 222 16

25

41 263 15

18 33

87

77

164 197 131

124

255 103

102

205

[blocks in formation]

14 27 (1) (5) (6) 2 5 7 13 10

The figures opposite the uncontested seats purporting to show a rise merely denote either that the seats were again not contested, or that, if contested, they were held by a majority greater than 100 per cent., this being the rate taken for the adjustment. We may omit these, however, from consideration, and take into account the contested seats only. Out of a total of 420, in 226 the majority rose; in 194, it fell. If we take the parties separately, however, there is a remarkable difference between them. On the Gladstonian side 85 per cent. suffered a fall in their majority, whilst on the Unionist side 84 per cent. enjoyed a rise. In both cases a transfer to the opposite party is counted, of course, as a fall. Allowing full weight to the fact that in this comparison a fractional variation, however small, is taken into consideration, the difference between the two parties is apparent from a very cursory comparison of the totals with the number of the seats in each group which show modification. In the case of majorities of 25 per cent. and upwards, 92 per cent. of the Unionist seats show an increase; but of the others, 80 per cent. were subjected to the reverse influence.

38. Our attention may now be specially directed to the seats which changed parties in 1895, the main facts concerning which are summarised in Table XXIV.

The four unopposed returns which are shown as having changed sides are in three cases merely the second seats of double constituencies, and the fourth is South Derbyshire. Of the contested seats which changed sides, 61 which were held by majorities of less than 10 per cent. in 1892 constitute no less than half the entire number in that group. The proportion is reduced to less than half by the time the list reaches the next group of majorities, but even here one in four succumbed. The rest of the record belongs to the chapter of accidents, always a long one on such occasions. If we look at the second section of the table, containing the distribution in relation to the grouping of 1895, we find general correspondence with 1892, and, since the majorities in contested seats underwent a slight but general fall, the proportion of the seats won in that year to the total held by less than 25 per cent. majorities rose from 37 per cent. to 40. It will be noticed, no doubt, on the other side of the account that the same seats are not included in the same majority group on both occasions, and the figures of mean majorities in this table indicate that up to 10 per cent. the majorities rose considerably with the transfer. As the majority of the party in possession rises, that by which it fell to the rival party decreases. The mean result, accordingly, shown at the foot of the table, is almost identical in the two elections, and for practical purposes

TABLE XXIV.-Majorities in Seats Changing Sides in 1895.

[merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][merged small][ocr errors][merged small][merged small][ocr errors]
« SebelumnyaLanjutkan »