rection. 21. It is not reasonable to assume that every employee who 40 or 45 per cent of an average salary will surrender his presen the service. 22. It is a violent assumption to estimate that all who can cent of the average salary will quit while capable of efficient a service. 23. Some of the efficient employees who could secure any and be convinced that they could engage in other vocations at greater than the forfeited Government pay would leave the ser 24. Probably those who could not render efficient service, or w would be provided for by the pension to which they would be accept the provisions of the bill. 25. After careful consideration I am convinced that no att made to directly estimate the probable service-pension paymen and 45 per cent provisions. Certainly it would be a gross assume that all who could claim such pensions would do so. 26. A study of all the facts and circumstances leads me to bel provision will be made for the payments to those claiming pen provisions for 45 and 40 per cent of average salary by assumingFirst, that all will make claim under the 50 per cent provision state the actual pensions by the amount allowed for those who and Second, that the estimated disability payments will exceed th pension ages (from 60 to 70 years of age). 27. Of course, there will be an underestimate of the aggreg pension and disability payments proportionate to the underst actual number of employees in the civil service. 28. Census Bulletin 94 (in the tables used in my computations) of 185,874 civil-service employees. A more recent document issu Service Commission gives the amount as 222,278. Senate Docum the Official Register with the statement of 286,902. I am inform the actual number is about 250,000, or probably 260,000. 29. Whatever be the true number, the relation will hold betwe number assumed in the computation, and it will not be difficu estimate for the larger number if the results are reliable when smaller number. 30. To assure greater reliability in the statistics, I exclud ported" and those on "piecework," aggregating 1,575, thus lea treatment 184,299 employees at the various rates of compensation ages of service. 31. The statistics being recorded by age groups, it was impo rately determine the number who might retire at age 62 after 25 of employment. The best estimate was to assume that three-fift ber in the age group 60-64 were entitled to the 45 per cent pensi ber of employees in the service less than 15 years causes ongst the 184,299 of $938. But the service pension is to be verage salary during the five years preceding retirement. cess of the general average. provisions make 60 years the minimum age, and that proone for 20 years or more of service, enters into the deverage salary. It has required the expenditure of much requisite averages, since the age attained and the period to the determination of the average salary as a basis for It is not my purpose to burden the record with stamples may prevent conclusions from estimates on general mptions heretofore stated, the number of employees estipayments was found to be 4,384, and the first year's pen lows 38. At the end of the fifth year after the proposed plan goes service pensions and disability payments are estimated as follow To the survivors of those 60 to 64 in first year. To the survivors of the immediate pensions_ To retired during 5 years from group: 5 to 9 years.... 25 to 29 years 30 to 34 years. 35 to 39 years_. 40 and more years. Total service pensions in fifth year-- -eason and be for the good of the service. lue to show the continued payments to those pensioned dicate the progress toward extinction of pensions after ed: s are going on the list, they are also going off, and ultidisability annual payments will become constant, assumof employees. It is probable that this Government will prosper and that the number of employees in the civil › increase and the aggregate pensions may continue to inbes not change the relation of the Government to its servand just and expedient to have a pension scheme for and just and right to continue the plan for 300,000, when e requires that number of employees. me conclusion in regard to the liability involved by ineme as proposed in House bill 9242 it is permissible and n ultimate constant number of employees. The resources e also assumed to remain constant. If there be a conployees there will be a corresponding increase in the imital affairs. future expenditure for service and disability payments, assumed that the same number of employees enter and year. s it may be assumed (from experience of pension funds) be from withdrawals, 30 per cent from retirement, and hs. end to persistency in service, this applies more especially nained upward of 10 years in the work. A pension of at the end of 20, 25, or 30 years, and at no age under 60 ed and not sufficiently alluring to hold young and recent hey can improve their condition by withdrawal. dvanced in age and period of service will persist, but the ation of pension funds shows a heavy withdrawal rate ice. rtant in estimating the future number of pensioners. the number of employees becomes practically constant, exits are equal, it will be found that about 57 per cent 52. It will be observed that 145,288 of the total of 184,299 entere under 40 years of age, being 78.83 per cent, while 112,009 (61.25 per present ages under 40. The number in service less than 20 years cent of the total as shown below: Service distribution. Under 5 years in service_ Total 20 to 24 years in service.... 25 to 29 years in service. 30 to 34 years in service_ 35 to 39 years in service. 40 years in service Grand total___. 53. In Senate Document No. 745 an official is quoted as stati civil-service employees are stricken from the rolls each year o deaths, withdrawals, and removals. I think it is within the fac that not exceeding 1,050 exits are due to death, leaving about 7,00 service from withdrawals and removals. It can be safely assume ment on pension would be substituted for present removals for where physical condition, age, or service allowed the pension. 54. There is little doubt of the further fact that many aged a infirm, now carried on the rolls through sympathy and whose salari nature of compassionate allowances, would be retired as disabilit |