to be levied on imports which compete with native products, with a view to protect home industries from foreign competition. Of this, from 34 to 49 million marks is to be imposed on agricultural and forest products, to wit: 30 to 41 millions on cereals, cattle, cheese, butter, etc., and 4 to 8 millions on products of the forest; and 18 to 28 millions on mechanical products, to wit: 6 to 12 millions on iron and machinery, 9 to 12 millions on textile fabrics, and 3 to 4 millions on other industrial products. In Italy the imports declined from 1,327,137,301 francs in 1876 to 1,148,049,418 francs in 1877; and the exports in a still greater measure, from 1,216,929,416 francs to 967,367,551 francs, thus increasing an adverse balance from 110 to 180 millions and reducing the total volume of trade by 16 per cent. In 1878 the total trade remained about the same as in 1877, but an increase in the exports to 1,040,789,181 francs and a diminution in the imports to 1,(70,802,434 francs reduced the adverse balance to only 30 millions. The principal reduction in the imports took place under the following heads, the values being stated in millions of francs: Spirits, beverages, and oils, 17; colonial products, 24; cottons, 23; metals and minerals, 26. Under the following heads there was an increased importation to the following amounts: Chemical products, 2; hemp and fax and their products, 7; grain and flour, 32. Among the exports there was a diminution of 15 millions in oils and beverages, 2 millions in paper, 3 millions in cereals, flour, and pastes, and 11 millions in animals, etc. The augmentations chiefly arose under the following heads: Colors and tanners' materials, 8; hemp and flax, 14; cottons, 6; wool, 3; silk, 49; wood and straw, 7; stone, earths, and glass, 5.

The trade statistics of Italy for the first half of 1879 show a continued favorable state of commerce. The imports for the six months were of the value of 607,251,075 francs, against 597.956,841 francs in the corresponding part of 1878. The exports were 586,435,744 francs, against 516,082,083 francs in 1878. The increase of 19 millions or 3.28 per cent. in the imports is found under the general head of szar, tobacco, and other colonial products, which is put down for 106,090,275 francs, against 57,125,043 francs in the first half of 1878. The proposal of the Government to raise the duties on sugar, coffee, and petroleum excited an unusual importation of those articles, particularly of sugar, of which 500,000 quintals more were imported than in the corresponding previous half year. Other articles which show an increased importation are tanning materials, hides, coal, and horses. The stimulated trade in colonial wares produced an increase of over 25 million francs, or about 50 per cent., in the customs receipts. The unusual and anticipated demand for sugar and coffee was nearly set off by a decline in the importation of foreign manufactures. Among the textiles, there was a decrease of 7,000 quintals

in the imports of flax, hemp, and jute materials, 11,000 quintals in cotton yarn, 9,000 quintals in cotton goods, 7,000 quintals in linen and jute manufactures, and 7,000 quintals in woolens. There was a slight decrease among the exports in dried fruit, straw hats, lead, and live stock. There were considerable increases, on the other hand, in the export of wines, olive oil, lime-juice, tanning materials, hemp, raw and thrown silk, paper, dressed skins, sulphur, rice, oranges and lemons, almonds, and dried figs.

The import trade of Egypt in 1876 amounted to 162,903,786 francs; the exports were 325,614,015 francs, an increase of 8,346,099 francs over those of the preceding year. England takes nearly two thirds of the Egyptian exports, France about one quarter, and Italy, the next best customer, not over 6 per cent. In the articles of export, cotton preponderates over all the others, figuring for 213 million francs, and cotton-seed for nearly 38 millions; the export of cereals amounted to 26 millions, that of sugar to 17 millions. A considerable trade is done in the products of Central Africa, which are exchanged by the natives for English calicoes, copper, and fire-arms, and brought by caravans to Khartoum or the ports of the Red Sea: gums are exported to the value of 8 million francs, ostrich-plumes 3 millions, skins 2 millions, and ivory 14 million. The principal trade in these articles is with France, who takes the coffee, the drugs, the skins, the gums, the wax, and the ostrichfeathers, which are brought from the White Nile, Dongola, and Kordofan. The elephant and hippopotamus ivory goes to Austria. The oil of roses and other essences are sent to Turkey and the Levant. The chief imports into Egypt are woods for building purposes from Austria and Turkey; coal and iron from England; fruits and provisions from France, Austria, Greece, and Syria; marbles from Italy and Austria; manufactures and machinery principally from Great Britain; oils, furniture, paper, silks, wines, and liquors from the port of Marseilles; and tobacco from Greece, Turkey, and Syria. England and France are the largest sellers to Egypt. The imports of petroleum from the United States show a diminution of 300,000 francs in 1876. The total imports into Egypt in 1876 were 5,033,142 francs less in value than in the preceding year. This diminution, however, did not affect the leading commercial nations of Europe, as the importations from Great Britain showed an increase of 5 millions for iron, coal, and manufactures; those from Austria showed an increase of 1 million francs for timber. importations of breadstuffs from Russia also increased slightly; and those from France were somewhat greater.

The

The foreign trade returns of British India for 1877-'78 show a larger total than in any previous year. This increase, however, is not attributable to the improved prosperity of the

182 COMMERCE, INTERNATIONAL.

people; but, as far as it is affected by the greater importation of grain and pulse, which amounted to 1,250,000 cwt. as compared with 41,000 and 282,000 cwt. in the two preceding years, it is the result of the recent famine. The imports of cotton twist and yarn and of gray piece-goods show a large increase, the former amounting to 36 million lbs., as compared with 33 million lbs. in 1876-'77, and the latter to 992 million yards, as compared with 840 million yards. But this line of trade was unnaturally stimulated by the efforts of English manufacturers to work off their surplus stocks at greatly reduced prices. The imports of salt, which afford a better criterion of the consumptive capacity of the people, have declined from 298,000 tons in 1877, and 365,000 in 1876, to 254,000 tons in 1878. The trade of France and Italy with India through the Suez Canal has greatly increased during the last four years; in 1878 the trade with those countries made 5.3 and 1.8 per cent. respectively of the total commerce. The export trade of India still continues to feel the stimulating effect of the depreciation of silver; the proportion of the exports to the total volume of the merchandise trade, which was 59 per cent. in the years 1867 and 1868, and increased to 67 per cent. in 1871-'72, was 62 per cent. in 1877-78, against 63 per cent. the previous year, and 61 and 62 per cent. in the second and third years before. The values of the imports and exports of merchandise for the last twelve years were, in lacs of rupees (1 lac=$50,000 approximately), as follows:

In 1878 the total imports were $91,199,577, and the total exports $79,323,667. The foreign trade of Canada is mainly with Great Britain and the United States. The proportions in which these two countries participate in the aggregate trade has greatly altered in the last few years. In 1873 the imports from Great Britain, $68,522,776, exceeded by nearly 50 per cent. the imports from the United States, $47,735,678, and were more than 75 per cent. in excess of the exports to Great Britain. In 1878 the imports from Great Britain had fallen to $37,431,180, while the imports from the United States, $48,631,739, had not diminished; and the exports to Great Britain had increased to $45,941,539, while the exports to the United States had shrunk to $25,244,898. For the first time in her history Canada has been able to show a favorable balance in her trade with England for the last three years, while her ag gregate trade still shows an adverse balance, which is owing now to the United States instead of to Great Britain: in 1873 England supplied Canada with 53 per cent. of her im ports, and the United States supplied 37 per cent.; in 1878 the United States supplied 53 per cent. and Great Britain 41 per cent.

COMMERCE OF THE UNITED STATES. Comparing the latest official statements of the foreign trade of all countries, the commerce of the United States is found to have been less in total volume than that of only three, Great Britain, Germany, and France, and the export trade inferior in magnitude to that of Great Britain and Germany alone. A comparison of the imports and exports of the several countries shows that while the United States in 1877-'78 exported 257 million dollars' worth of merchandise more than they imported, Great Britain imported 690 million dollars' worth in excess of exports, Germany 272, France 45, Netherlands 83, and Belgium 67 millions. The only other countries which show a favorable balance besides the United States are India, whose excess of exports is 115 million dollars; Austria, 37 millions; Japan 2 millions; Siam, 3 millions; and the South American countries -Brazil with 6, the Argentine Republic with 4, and Chili with 2 millions balance on the credit side.

Until 1876 the balance of trade was almost

invariably against the United States. In the period from 1835 to 1850 there was an excess in the imports of merchandise over the exports aggregating 88 million dollars, and an excess in the imports of specie over the exports of 44 millions. From 1851 to 1860 inclusive the importation of merchandise exceeded the exportation by 356 millions; but this was more than balanced by exportation of coin and bullion amounting to 417 millions. During the period of the war there was a small excess of imports. After the war followed a period of unexampled commercial expansion and extension of the facilities of production and transportation, during which the external trade has been nearly doubled. The augmentation in productive facilities was accomplished in part by foreign capital, and to a considerable extent with imported material; so that during the thirteen years from 1861 to 1873, while the exports in the latter part of the period increased in a rapid and steady ratio, a large debt was accumulating abroad against the United States, which is represented in the trade returns by an aggregate excess in the imports of merchandise over exports of 1,155 millions, against which must be offset the net exportation of bullion, amounting to 657 million dollars. In 1874 the merchandise balance turned out in favor of the United States for the first time since the war. It was the first time, indeed, since the discovery of gold in California, save in 1858, when a similar cause worked a sudden reduction of imports, and one year in the beginning of the war, when the exports and imports nearly balanced each other. The excess of exports in 1874 was 18 millions; in 1875 there was again a slight excess in the imports, amounting to 19 millions. In 1876 the balance changed definitively in faFor of the United States, the excess of exports in that year amounting to 79 millions, increasing in 1876 to 151 millions, and in 1877 to 257 millions. The aggregate excess of exports for these last three years only more than extinguishes the accumulated debt shown by the aggregate unfavorable balances of the previous period, embracing a destructive war and the multiplication of productive and commercial facilities by means of material imported largely from Europe, and at prices which were fully double those which obtain to-day. The aggregate favorable balance for the five years in the merchandise account is 488 million dollars, which swells by the addition of the net exports of coin and bullion, which were 169 millions, to a total of 657 millions. The imports of merchandise grew from 357 millions in 1868 to 642 millions in 1873, and then declined without a break to 437 millions in 1878. The decline is due in part to the cessation of railroad-building and other improvements with imported material, in part to the diminished power of consumption in the community and the practice of enforced or voluntary economy, and in part to the reduction of values. The exports of domestic products increased steadily

from 281 millions in 1868 to 586 millions in 1874, then fell off to 513 millions in 1875, and increased again with rapid strides to 540 millions in 1876, 602 millions in 1877, and 694 millions in 1878. The decline in 1875 was not due to diminished exportations, but to a large fall in average prices.

The increase in the export trade in merchandise of over one third in value since 1873, in spite of an equal decline in prices, is partly due to the adventitious cause of short crops in Europe; but there is no reason to expect that the recent improvements in the means of production and transportation will not enable the raw products of America to hold their own in the markets of Europe. The export trade in food articles occupies a position of natural rivalry and antagonism to the export trade in manufactures, since the more Europe becomes dependent on America for food, the more sharp will be its competition in its own and neutral markets and in the American market for an outlet for manufactures. If the present extension of agriculture and increase in the exported surplus continues, then the test will be the more severe to which the American manufacturers will be subjected to show in what branches of industry superior skill, knowledge, taste, honesty, cheaper power and cheaper raw material, priority of development, the advantage of accumulated capital, or better commercial communications with the markets, will enable them to sustain the competition of the older industrial nations.

The magnitude of the foreign trade of a country indicates better than any other sign the material progress and social well-being of the people. The average annual value of imports of merchandise into America during the five years from 1835 to 1839 inclusive was 139 million dollars; the average annual exports amounted to 113 millions. The succeeding lustrum, 1840-'44, was a period of retardation, in which the average imports declined to 104 millions and the exports to 92 millions. From 1845 to 1849 the imports averaged 128 and the exports 130 millions. In the succeeding five years, 1850-'54, the imports had increased to 230 and the exports to 187 millions. In the five years from 1855 to 1859 the imports had advanced further to 302 and the exports to 271 millions. After 1850 a new element enters into the account, which is not included in the merchandise returns, viz., the exports of the precious metals. Between 1850 and 1878 the total net exports of gold and silver amounted to about 1,280 million dollars, or some 90 millions more than the total adverse balance in merchandise for the whole period. The war had an unfavorable effect on the external commerce of the United States. In the period from 1860 to 1864, the average imports were 278 million and the exports 221 million dollars. Both the export and import trades were probably greater than in the preceding period, as the commerce of the belligerent Southern

States is not included in the reports. In the next five years, 1865-'69, the annual imports had increased to 368 millions, but the exports, 275 millions, stood about where they did ten years before. Toward the end of this period commenced the rapid development which, judged by the growth of the export trade, is equaled in the commercial history of the country only by the period of similar duration between the discovery of the California gold-fields and the outbreak of the civil war. Then the development was more varied. The American forests afforded the materials for the construction of a vast merchant marine. The possession of the carrying trade was exceed ingly favorable to the exportation of manufactures, and numerous industries sprang up for the supply of distant neutral markets with industrial products. The increase in the exports of manufactures of iron and other metals, of cotton manufactures, leather goods, chemical products, and other finished industrial products, was twice as great between 1850 and 1860 as it was between 1860 and 1878. The merchant fleet passed into other hands, and the markets for these manifold industrial productions were rendered less accessible through the civil war. A revolution in naval architecture, whereby iron replaces wood and steam performs more perfectly the service of the wind, confirms the great manufacturing and maritime nation where coal and iron are the cheapest in the possession of the ship-building and carrying trades, where, fortified by an enormous invested capital, they must remain until the new materials can be produced more cheaply elsewhere, since no protective measures not forbidden by the law of nations can suffice to wrest them away. Yet during the late new advance in production the growth of manufacturing interests in the United States has been enormous, as may be seen by comparing the lists of imports for a series of years. Industries of the most vital importance, producing the staple manufactures of prime necessity and universal use, for which America formerly depended largely upon Europe, fostered under the wing of the Government by protective tariffs, are now able to nearly supply the entire needs of the people. Yet the progress seems to have been still more rapid in agriculture, and the population of the country to be more preponderantly engaged in agricultural production and in auxiliary industries, and in the production of crude commodities, than it was twenty years ago. Petroleum, silver, and other new mineral products occupy a similar position with reference to manufactures as agricultural produce. The increase in the exportation of grain and provisions, cotton and tobacco, has been shown in the preceding article. These products of the field form in a greater measure than ever before the main bulk of the exports, and swell the total more and more each year. These four articles, with mineral oil, formed in 1878 about 76 per cent. of the total exports of domestic

commodities. Whether this extension will stil continue is somewhat problematical, as it has been accelerated by an abnormal demand resulting from recent failures of European crops. It is possible that the present increase of food production may be temporarily or permanently arrested by the return of good harvests abroad. It is more likely that with the increased facilities of transportation the light and fertile soil of the prairies will enable the American farmer to compete with the European, and that on the return of general prosperity the consumptive capacity of Europe will expand sufficiently to absorb all of these and other agricultural products now exported, and still more.

The capacity of the country for agricultural production is indefinitely greater than the crops yet obtained. The total yield of cereal crops in the United States in 1879, according to the reports of the Agricultural Bureau at Washington, was 2,492,169,590 bushels, compared with 2,298,371,150 bushels in 1878. In wheat there was an increase of from 420,122,400 to 448,750,000 bushels; in corn from 1,388,268,750 to 1,601,151,570 bushels; the other, non-exportable crops showed a slight falling off. The crop of cotton was 4,926,285 bales, against 5,200,000 bales in 1878. The tobacco yield amounted to 384,059,659 lbs. The potato crop was 181,369,340 bushels, or 57,000,000 bushels more than in 1878. The yield per acre was for wheat 137, for corn 30.2, and for potatoes 98-9 bushels; for cotton 176, and for tobacco 779 lbs.

If agricultural production should prove incapable of further development, if it should be fated to relapse and decline, the fortunes of the manufacturing industries will assume greater importance, and then the inquiry will press itself on the public mind whether the protected industries are in position, or will soon be in position, to hold their own in the open market, to produce an exchangeable equivalent for the foreign luxuries demanded by the people, and maintain the position of America among commercial nations. If, on the other hand, the foreign demand for the products of the soil should continue to increase, the same question may be pushed to a speedier solution, as the waxing agricultural interest may demand that the markets should be cleared for the cheapest goods and thrown open to all comers. That there are American manufactures which are able to compete in the neutral markets and in Europe with the products of the older manufacturing nations is seen in the subjoined table of the exports of the articles which are classed as manufactures in the official reports of the Treasury Department, for the years 1850, 1860, 1870, 1872, 1874, 1876, and 1878. This group of articles formed in 1850 11 per cent, of the total exports of domestic merchandise, in 1860 not quite 13 per cent., in 1870 something less than 20 per cent., in 1872 19 per cent., in 1874 less than 18 per cent., in 1876 nearly 21 per cent., and in 1878 a little under 20 per cent.: