The Black SwanRandom House, 13 Okt 2009 - 366 halaman In the author's point of view, a black swan is an improbable event with three principal characteristics - It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the 'impossible'. |
Isi
UMBERTO ECOS ANTILIBRARY OR HOW WE SEEK VALIDATION I | 3 |
Yevgenicrs Black Swan | 23 |
One Thousand and One Days or How Not to Be u Sucker | 38 |
Confirmation Shmonfirmalion | 53 |
The Narrative Fallacy | 62 |
Living in the Antechamber or Hope | 85 |
Giacomo Casanovas Untailing Luck | 100 |
The Ludic Fallacy or The Uncertainty of the Nerd | 122 |
THOSE GRAY SWANS OF EXTREMISTAN | 212 |
The Bell Curve That Great Intellectual Fraud | 229 |
The Aesthetics of Randomness | 253 |
The Logic of Fractal Randomness with a Warning | 262 |
Lockes Madmen or Bell Curves in the Wrong Places | 274 |
The Uncertainty ot the Phony | 286 |
Halt and Halt or How to Get Even with the Black Swan 295 | 297 |
Notes | 311 |
WE JUST CANT PREDICT | 136 |
How io Look for Bird Poop | 165 |
Episiemocracy a Dream | 191 |
Appelles ihe Painter or Whai Do You Do ii | 201 |
| 330 | |
| 359 | |
| 362 | |
Edisi yang lain - Lihat semua
Istilah dan frasa umum
ability accept allow asked assume authors average avoid become believe bell curve better Black Swan called cause Chapter close consider discuss distribution economic economists effect empirical error evidence expected experience explain extremely Extremistan fact fallacy financial find first forecast fractal future Gaussian happen human idea intellectual interesting knowledge later less limit live logic look mathematics matters mean Mediocristan methods million mind models narrative nature never Note observation odds once past percent person philosopher possible precise predict present probability problem produce randomness rare reason risk rule seems severe simple single skeptical social someone statistical story success theory things thought tion uncertainty understand writing wrong
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