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Special Issue on Hindsight Bias

, Volume 11
Sampul Depan
U. Hoffrage, Rüdiger F. Pohl
0 Resensi
Memory, Department of Psychology, University of Durham, 2003 - 176 halaman
With hindsight, we tend to exaggerate what we had known with foresight. This phenomenon can be observed in a memory design in which previous judgements have to be recalled after outcome information has been made available, or in a hypothetical design in which participants receive outcome information but are asked to ignore it when subsequently judging what they would have said without this information. Since the introduction of this so-called hindsight bias or knew-it-all-along effect to the psychological literature in the mid-seventies, there has been immense research on this topic. This special issue presents ten articles that describe the most recent theoretical developments and empirical results. After a brief introductory overview of the state of the art, the issue commences with two process models (SARA, Pohl, Eisenhauer & Hardt; and RAFT, Hertwig, Fanselow & Hoffrage), which are formalized enough to allow for computer simulations. Subsequently, Hardt and Pohl demonstrate how the hindsight bias is related to the phenomenon of anchoring, and Schwarz and Stahlberg propose that due to meta-cognitive processes, the outcome information is deliberately chosen as such an anchor. In a variant of the meta-cognitive approach, Werth and Strack argue that ease of retrieval of an answer is used as a cue to infer its correctness and to determine one's confidence in its correctness. Similarly, Pezzo proposes a model that predicts hindsight bias from feelings that arise when trying to make sense of the outcome information in light of prior expectations. Mark et al. and Renner adopt a motivational perspective and explore the impact of self-relevance of the outcome information. Blank, Fischer, and Erdfelder report a successful replication of the hindsight bias in two political elections, and Musch explains some of the variance in hindsight bias using personality factors.

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Hindsight bias unit alpha : the apophenic form function-01
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Michael Andrew Podolak
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Judgment Under Uncertainty
Daniel Kahneman,Paul Slovic,Amos Tversky
Pratinjau terbatas - 1982
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Rüdiger Pohl
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Referensi dari laman web

Hindsight bias - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Hindsight bias is the inclination to see events that have occurred as more predictable than they in fact were before they took place. ...
en.wikipedia.org/ wiki/ Hindsight_bias

Hindsight Bias: Special Issue of Memory
Hindsight Bias: Special Issue of Memory - With hindsight, we tend to exaggerate what we had known with foresight. This phenomenon can be observed in a ...
www.memoryarena.com/ books/ book.asp?isbn=1841699381

Hindsight Bias
"The reason for overconfidence may also have to do with hindsight bias, ... Hindsight bias encourages a view of the world as more predictable than it really ...
hindsight-bias.behaviouralfinance.net/

Social Cognition, Vol. 25, Iss. 1
Tackling the Monday-Morning Quarterback: Applications of Hindsight Bias in ... What Can Children Tell Us About Hindsight Bias: A Fundamental Constraint on ...
www.atypon-link.com/ GPI/ toc/ soco/ 25/ 1

Could they have known better?. A Special Issue of the Journal ...
establishment by Fischhoff (1975), the Hindsight Bias phenomenon has been the ... In both designs, hindsight bias typically reflects participants’ tendency ...
doi.wiley.com/ 10.1002/ acp.1052

Hindsight Bias, Probability Judgments and Hindsight Bias ...
The hindsight bias is the tendency to adjust one’s memory about earlier ... People is affected by the hindsight bias only when they are giving ...
www.unitn.it/ events/ emco/ download/ tpp/ Rubaltelli.pdf

A Meta-Analysis of Research on Hindsight Bias
that included manipulations to increase hindsight bias resulted in ... and (e) studies that included manipulations to reduce hindsight bias did not produce ...
www.leaonline.com/ doi/ abs/ 10.1207/ s15324834basp2602& 3_1

Blackwell Synergy - Current Directions in Psychol Sci, Volume 15 ...
Metacognitive Experiences and Human Judgment: The Case of Hindsight Bias and Its ... After an event outcome is known, people display hindsight bias by ...
www.blackwell-synergy.com/ doi/ abs/ 10.1111/ j.1467-8721.2006.00430.x

ingentaconnect The Effects of Feedback Source and Plausibility of ...
This paper reports three attempts to eliminate hindsight bias by ... Both variations, however alone and in combination failed to reduce hindsight bias. ...
www.ingentaconnect.com/ content/ psych/ pecp/ 1998/ 00000010/ 00000002/ art00004;jsessionid=16edpf90c5t38.alice?format=print

What kind of bias is hindsight bias?
nature of the hindsight bias succeeded in signi®cantly. reducing hindsight e€ects (Fischho€, ... sible sources of hindsight bias: recollection processes and ...
www.springerlink.com/ index/ YPDKE50ABWQ7C8KY.pdf

Tentang penulis (2003)

Pohl is President of the Institute for Economic Research Research Halle, and Professor of Economics, Martin Luther University, Hall-Wittenberg.

Informasi bibliografi

QR code for Special Issue on Hindsight Bias
JudulSpecial Issue on Hindsight Bias, Volume 11
Volume 11,Masalah 4-5 dari Memory (Hove, England)
Volume 3 dari Special Issues of Memory Series
EditorU. Hoffrage, Rüdiger F. Pohl
PenerbitMemory, Department of Psychology, University of Durham, 2003
ISBN1841699381, 9781841699387
Tebal176 halaman
  
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